Before the 2025 college football season, we simulated the season 50 times on “College Football 26.” Looking back, the results were… mixed.
Clemson and Penn State were two of the three teams tied for the most frequent national championship winners. They wound up meeting in the postseason, but in the Bad Boy Mowers Bowl. However, the video game predicted that Miami (Fla.) would be a top contender, winning the national championship tied for the fourth-highest number of times in our 50 simulations. It also had Indiana and Fernando Mendoza winning the national championship and the Heisman Trophy once, something we’ll give the game credit for, as not many envisioned Indiana going on a rampage this season.
So, now that the national championship is here, what would we expect on Monday night? Well, we went back to “College Football 26” and simulated that game 10 times. We didn’t do 15-minute quarters. Rather, we did six-minute quarters for our 10 simulations so we could get this down before Monday’s kickoff, even with the extra time between games.
If our simulations are a good fortuneteller, we should be in for a treat on Monday. Here’s what we should expect in the national championship game if our simulations come to fruition.
Fernando Mendoza will still be incredibly efficient
The Heisman winner has been an absolute heater so far in the College Football Playoff. Mendoza’s thrown more touchdowns (eight) than incompletions (five) through the first two games of the CFP, doing so against elite competition. He completed 14 of 16 passes for 192 yards and three touchdowns in the Rose Bowl win over Alabama. He completed 17 of 20 passes for 177 yards and five touchdowns in the Peach Bowl win over Oregon.
Mendoza will be nearly as efficient in the title game, according to “College Football 26.” Mendoza completed at least 80% of his passes in nine of the 10 simulations, including one where he completed 22 of 25 passes for 272 yards and two touchdowns.
There was one performance where Mendoza only threw for 93 yards. But he completed 14 of 15 passes in that game, still finding his receivers, even if they were for short gains.
Will Curt Cignetti complete Indiana’s surprise turnaround? Here’s what that might look like come Monday night. (Screengrab via “College Football 26″/EA Sports).
Beck has had a good first season in Coral Gables, but many would say he isn’t the top reason why Miami has been able to win three games in the CFP. His stats would back that up, too, as he’s thrown for just 509 yards in three playoff games.
Well, “College Football 26” is telling us to expect something different on Monday. Beck was just as efficient as Mendoza in the simulations, throwing for at least 250 yards in half of the simulations. In fact, in one simulation, Beck completed all 18 passes he threw for 257 yards and three touchdowns. In that simulation, Beck connected with star freshman wide receiver Malachi Toney on a deep ball for a 56-yard score.
Beck also had a performance where he threw for 329 yards, completing 25 of 27 passes in that game. He had another where he threw for 288 yards.
[CFP: The Ultimate Indiana-Miami CFP National Championship Lineup]
The run video games will not be too efficient.
Miami has had up-and-down success within the CFP with its floor sport, whereas Indiana has remained among the best floor assaults within the sport in the course of the postseason. Do not anticipate the run sport to be an element on Monday, although.
There wasn’t a 100-yard rusher in any of the ten simulations. Both dashing yards had been laborious to return by over the course of our 10 simulations, or each groups determined to not run the ball an excessive amount of. For Miami, operating again Mark Fletcher Jr.‘s greatest sport was when he ran for 79 yards and two touchdowns on 12 carries. However that got here after he ran for 18 yards on 12 carries within the earlier simulation.
As for Indiana, Roman Hemby had the perfect dashing efficiency out of the group of the Hoosiers’ operating backs. He ran for 81 yards on 9 carries and a rating in one of many simulations.
Anticipate an in depth battle
The nationwide championship sport has been decisive in recent times. Hopefully, that adjustments this yr, and we get an in depth sport on Monday evening.
“School Soccer 26” tells us that ought to be the case. The sport was determined by one rating in 9 of our 10 simulations. We solely bought time beyond regulation in one in all them, however we had three simulations the place the game-winning area purpose was both kicked with two seconds remaining or on the buzzer. In two extra of our simulations, the sport got here all the way down to a Hail Mary try.
[2025 CFP Title Odds: Indiana Favored Over Miami in National Championship]
What’s probably the most chaotic end we may get?
Simulations No. 8 and No. 9 gave us perhaps the wildest finishes attainable for a championship sport.
In simulation No. 8, Miami appeared set to win, 16-10. However Fletcher bought harm on a carry proper earlier than the sector purpose try to increase Miami’s result in six with simply greater than 90 seconds left, forcing the Hurricanes to name a timeout. That allowed Mendoza to search out broad receiver Omar Cooper Jr. for one more dramatic landing, with the receiver taking off for a 61-yard landing with simply over 50 seconds left to offer Indiana a 17-16 lead.
Miami nonetheless had an opportunity to win the sport. However Beck’s Hail Mary try fell quick. He accomplished a 57-yard go to Toney on the sport’s closing play, however time ran out earlier than the Hurricanes may get to the 10-yard line to snap the ball.
In simulation No. 9, Indiana was in management for a lot of the sport. It appeared it was going to return out with a 21-14 victory, too. However with 1:19 remaining, Beck threw a 67-yard landing go to Ray Ray Joseph on fourth-and-18 to tie the sport up.
Miami bought Indiana to go three-and-out on the following possession and bought the ball again on the 50-yard line with 10 seconds left. Two performs later, it kicked a game-winning 61-yard area purpose to win the nationwide championship on the buzzer.
Now, that is some onions.
Miami will win
Possibly the largest shock of all of them: Miami received seven of our 10 simulations. The U is formally again, and Mario Cristobal (who truly is not in “School Soccer 26”) has made his alma mater a nationwide champion once more.
Carson Beck and Miami will win the nationwide championship, if our simulations of “School Soccer 26” are to be believed (Screengrab through “School Soccer 26″/EA Sports activities).
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