A dream season for the Milwaukee Brewers is over. After successful a franchise document 97 video games throughout the common season, the Brewers have been unceremoniously swept by the Los Angeles Dodgers within the NLCS. The Brewers scored 4 runs within the 4 video games and pitched with a lead for precisely one-third of an inning. Holding the Dodgers to fifteen runs in 4 video games was good work, however the offense no-showed, and the Brewers are going dwelling.
Milwaukee’s 97 wins led baseball and have been the fewest by MLB’s greatest workforce because the Boston Pink Sox and St. Louis Cardinals tied for the league lead with 97 wins in 2013. It’s a must to return to 2007, when Cleveland and the Pink Sox each completed with 96 wins, for the final time the league chief gained fewer than 97 video games. The Brewers’ season could be break up into three unequal elements:
|
First 53 video games |
25-28 (.472) |
minus-6 |
|
Subsequent 69 video games |
53-16 (.768) |
plus-168 |
|
Ultimate 40 video games |
19-21 (.475) |
plus-19 |
The Brewers have been the primary workforce to win 53 occasions in a 69-game stretch because the Dodgers from July 5 to Sept. 20, 2022. Milwaukee stumbled a bit down the stretch, although they’d baseball’s greatest document and nine-game lead within the NL Central by means of 122 video games, so we have now to permit for the likelihood (probability) that they took their foot off the fuel. That actually seemed to be the case given a few of their obvious load administration in September.
Milwaukee has the fifth-best successful proportion in baseball since 2018, a outstanding accomplishment given the market dimension, however the Brewers are solely 11-20 within the postseason throughout that point. For all intents and functions, the Brewers hold falling quick within the postseason as a result of they run into groups that function the identical manner, solely with extra money. That is powerful to beat and it’s one thing they’ll once more got down to do in 2026. Listed here are three urgent questions going through the Brewers this offseason.
What occurs with Peralta (and Woodruff)?
I can let you know this a lot: Milwaukee will train their discount $8 million membership choice for 2026. What occurs with ace Freddy Peralta after that is a little more up within the air. The Brewers have a current historical past of buying and selling their high gamers a 12 months earlier than free company (Corbin Burnes, Josh Hader, Devin Williams, and so on.) and Peralta, one of many sport’s high starters the final 5 years, is at that time now. He’s scheduled to grow to be a free agent for the primary time after subsequent season.
For what it is value, Peralta reportedly approached the Brewers a few contract extension sooner or later, however no deal was struck. Is that as a result of the 2 sides have been aside on {dollars}/years, or as a result of the workforce is just not taken with locking itself into what figures to be Peralta’s decline section? I think it was the previous greater than the latter. I am positive the Brewers would like to make Peralta a Brewers for all times, however as a small-market workforce, they must be sensible with their cash.
Milwaukee’s M.O. is to commerce its greatest gamers a 12 months earlier than free company for reasonable younger gamers who hold the perpetual movement machine shifting, and there’s no motive to suppose Peralta will likely be an exception. That $8 million wage is so low-cost. He is value thrice that on the open market. The one-year time period figures to restrict Peralta’s commerce market to contenders solely, however there will likely be no scarcity of groups if the Brewers do certainly make him out there.
There may be additionally the case of Brandon Woodruff. Milwaukee’s longest-tenured participant returned from shoulder surgical procedure this season and made 12 begins with a 3.20 ERA earlier than a lat pressure ended his season in September. His contract features a $20 million mutual choice with a $10 million buyout. Mutual choices are often pointless. They are a option to transfer cash to subsequent 12 months’s payroll (by way of a buyout) greater than they’re a manner for the workforce and participant to remain collectively for one more 12 months.
With Woodruff, I do surprise if this is likely one of the ultra-rare instances the place each side will decide up their finish of the mutual choice. The buyout makes it a $10 million resolution for Woodruff. Can he get that as a free agent? Yeah, perhaps, although he would open himself as much as a pre-signing bodily a 12 months after main shoulder surgical procedure and some weeks after a lat pressure. There’s threat there. The Brewers must pay Woodruff $10 million it doesn’t matter what. Preserving him for one more $10 million is an effective consequence for them.
The Brewers used an opener 4 occasions in 9 postseason video games, which isn’t routinely a nasty factor — Milwaukee’s offense allow them to down within the NLCS, not pitching — although it does converse to a scarcity of innings and a scarcity of reliable three-times-through-the-lineup starters. That is the workforce’s 2026 rotation depth chart with out Peralta and Woodruff:
- RHP Jacob Misiorowski
- RHP Quinn Priester
- RHP Chad Patrick
- LHP Robert Gasser
- RHP Tobias Myers
- RHP Logan Henderson (elbow irritation ended his season in August)
- RHP Carlos Rodriguez
- RHP Coleman Crow (flexor pressure ended his season in July)
Lefty DL Corridor by no means threw greater than 3 ⅔ innings or 56 pitches in a sport this season. He is had a number of accidents the final two years (lat, knee, indirect) and it looks as if his days as a starter could also be over. If they don’t seem to be, nice. We might slot Corridor into that depth chart someplace in that case. In any other case that is stable rotation depth with upside (Misiorowski specifically), although it’s a assortment of men greater than capital-G Guys. Guys who can get you thru 162 video games value of innings greater than guys who begin in October.
Pretty much as good as they have been this season, the Brewers nonetheless wanted 24 begins from Jose Quintana plus a handful extra from Tyler Alexander, Aaron Civale, Nestor Cortes, Elvin Rodriguez, and others. A Peralta commerce is a definite chance, and it’ll take away the workforce’s greatest starter and most dependable supply of innings. Even when the Brewers do deliver Woodruff again, there’s room so as to add to the rotation. At the very least a Quintana kind who soaks up innings and helps get them to the end line of the common season.
How do they add extra energy to the lineup?
Collectively, we make an excessive amount of of the postseason, and I am together with myself in that “we.” We learn an excessive amount of into 3-7 sport collection. The postseason is nice workforce vs. good workforce, so a superb workforce has to lose, and after they do lose, it will probably typically be ugly, because the NLCS was for the Brewers. Generally you simply get beat although. Not each postseason defeat occurs as a result of a workforce’s weak spot will get exploited or as a result of they lacked some intangible high quality. Generally you simply lose.
In Milwaukee’s case, it was exhausting to not discover that the workforce that hit solely 166 dwelling runs throughout the common season, ninth fewest in baseball and second fewest by a postseason workforce (the San Diego Padres hit 152), had a tough time scoring runs within the NLCS. A part of that’s the Dodgers’ pitching, completely, however is it actually a shock {that a} Brewers workforce that ranked among the many league’s worst in varied batted ball metrics had a tough time in opposition to high tier pitching?
|
Common exit velocity |
88.6 mph |
twenty eighth |
89.4 mph |
|
Barrel fee (what’s this?) |
6.7% |
twenty ninth |
8.6% |
|
Arduous-hit fee |
39.2% |
twenty fifth |
40.9% |
The Brewers scored 806 runs this 12 months, third most in baseball behind the New York Yankees (849) and Dodgers (825). The low-power offense labored for them, largely as a result of they have been baseball’s greatest workforce with runners in scoring place. Energy and residential runs are an essential piece of the pie although. It is exhausting to beat an ace-caliber pitcher or a lockdown bullpen by stringing collectively hits and walks. Take a look at the league-wide numbers because the 12-team postseason area was carried out in 2022:
|
Common season |
4.45 |
1.16 |
|
Postseason |
4.05 |
1.21 |
Run scoring goes down and residential runs go up within the postseason. The Dodgers hit the second most dwelling runs throughout the common season they usually’re within the World Sequence, the place they will play both the Seattle Mariners (third most homers) or the Toronto Blue Jays (eleventh most). The 2024 World Sequence featured two of the highest three groups in homers. The No. 3 workforce in homers gained the 2023 World Sequence. The 2022 World Sequence was two of the highest six groups in homers. On and one we might go.
I perceive the Brewers have a mode of play that works (very) nicely for them, however I do not suppose it is outlandish to say they might profit from extra energy. Including it’s doable. It can simply take some creativity as a result of they’ve payroll limitations that may forestall them from successful a free-agent bidding warfare for, say, Kyle Schwarber. A full 12 months of Andrew Vaughn, William Contreras having a wholesome finger, and Jackson Chourio leveling up will assist. There’s room so as to add extra thump round them although.
Milwaukee’s high eight and 12 of their high 13 gamers in plate appearances this season are beneath contract or workforce management in 2026. They will return largely the identical offense subsequent season and that is not a nasty factor given this 12 months’s success. It simply implies that, in the event that they do make an effort so as to add energy, it is going to require some troublesome choices. Somebody must get traded to make room, lose at-bats, and so on. The dearth of energy is just not a deadly flaw regardless that it regarded like one within the NLCS, however it’s a flaw that may be addressed.
How do they recover from the hump?
In a manner, the Brewers did recover from the hump this 12 months. Their NLDS win over the rival Chicago Cubs was their first postseason collection win since 2018. 5 postseason journeys in six years from 2019-24 introduced 5 fast exits. That is not the hump I am speaking about right here although. Win as a lot because the Brewers have the previous few years, and it is best to begin specializing in the World Sequence, particularly once you’ve by no means gained one. Profitable common seasons rely for less than a lot, they usually can get stale after some time after they include swift postseason defeats 12 months after 12 months.
The reply to the “how do they recover from the hump” query might be so simple as sticking with what works, and hoping issues break your manner considered one of these years. It is an unsatisfying reply however it could be the right reply. Clearly, the Brewers are doing loads proper. They contend each season regardless of operating very small payrolls, and that is not simple to do. There’s room so as to add some energy right here, and perhaps extra impression pitching, although that applies to nearly each workforce. The Brewers are perhaps 95% of the best way to a World Sequence title. That final 5% is the toughest to determine, and typically it isn’t even in your management.
