Why Leni maybe should not run once more

Following Vice President Sara Duterte’s announcement on Wednesday, February 18, of her 2028 presidential bid, requires Naga Metropolis Mayor Leni Robredo to hunt one other presidential run have been made by varied sectors and personalities.

Understandably, Robredo’s second-place end within the 2022 presidential elections makes her a logical option to be the main challenger to Duterte. The backdrop of the Philippines’ worst corruption scandal necessitates a candidate who clearly stands for good governance. 

However there’s one undeniable fact that maybe a lot of these calling for Robredo to run once more are forgetting: it’s the curse of presidential repeaters.

Submit-1986, no repeat presidential candidate has ever gained a race. In reality, in most situations, those that misplaced the primary time and tried once more a second or third time did worse than within the first try.  

Contemplate the next presidential repeaters:

Miriam Defensor-Santiago

Working beneath her small Folks’s Reform Celebration and with anti-corruption as her battle cry, Miriam Defensor-Santiago positioned second within the 1992 presidential elections with 19.73% of the votes (She filed an electoral protest and plenty of consider she gained, however that’s one other story.) Incumbent Cory Aquino’s candidate, Fidel V. Ramos, additionally operating beneath a small social gathering, Lakas-NUCD, gained with a 23.58% plurality. (READ: 3 methods Miriam Santiago can revive her magic on the polls)

Santiago ran once more in 1998, and in a race with 10 presidential candidates, she positioned seventh with 2.96% of the votes. 

In her third and final strive for the presidency in 2016, Santiago, who had introduced earlier than the marketing campaign that she had overwhelmed most cancers, positioned final amongst 5 presidential candidates, getting solely 3.42% of the votes. Rodrigo Duterte handily gained the race with a 39% plurality. (READ: The final battle of Miriam Defensor-Santiago)

Imelda Romualdez Marcos

President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., who met Robredo on Saturday, February 21, in Naga Metropolis, might be properly conscious of the curse of repeat presidential candidates. 

His mom, Imelda, ran in 1992, and in a discipline of seven candidates, she positioned fifth with 10.32% of the votes.

She ran once more in 1998 however withdrew from the presidential race on the final minute resulting from her low scores. (READ: FAST FACTS: Imelda Marcos, the ‘Iron Butterfly’)

Raul Roco

One other reformist candidate just like Defensor-Santiago, then-senator Raul Roco ran within the 1998 presidential elections and positioned third (behind Joseph Estrada and administration candidate Jose de Venecia) with 13.83% of the votes. 

Roco ran once more in 2004 towards 4 different candidates. Throughout the marketing campaign, nonetheless, Roco was identified with prostate most cancers and took break day from the marketing campaign for remedy. (READ: Wanting again: Like Miriam, presidential guess Raul Roco had most cancers too)

However information of his questionable well being affected his survey scores. He ended up fourth with 6.45% of the votes in a race narrowly gained by incumbent Gloria Macapagal Arroyo (39.99%) in her first try on the presidency. (She got here to energy in 2001 by way of constitutional succession, not by way of election.) Arroyo narrowly defeated actor Fernando Poe Jr. of the LDP-KNP, who received 36.51% of the votes.

Eddie Villanueva

Born-again Christian Eddie Villanueva first ran for president within the 2004 elections, and completed final in a discipline of 5 candidates. He received 6.16% of the votes. 

He tried once more within the 2010 elections, in a discipline of 10 candidates. Villanueva, operating beneath his social gathering Bagong Pilipinas, positioned fifth with 3.12% of the votes. (READ: Eddie Villanueva: Third time fortunate?)

Panfilo Lacson

Lacson first ran for president in 2004. Working as an unbiased and with monetary help from plenty of rich Chinese language-Filipinos, he positioned third with 10.88% subsequent to Macapagal-Arroyo and Fernando Poe Jr.

He ran once more within the 2022 presidential elections and positioned fifth with 1.66% of the votes in a discipline of 10 candidates. (READ: [Newsstand] Ping Lacson’s untimely endgame)

The curious case of Joseph Estrada

It will take an especially in style Joseph Estrada to nearly break the curse of repeat presidential candidates. However his case is totally different from the remaining as he gained in his first try on the presidency. Nonetheless, he can nonetheless be thought of a repeat presidential candidate. 

Estrada topped the 1998 presidential elections with 39.86% of the votes. He defeated 9 different candidates. 

Ousted within the 2001 Folks Energy rebellion, convicted of plunder, and pardoned by then-president Macapagal-Arroyo in 2007, he ran once more in 2010 and positioned second with 26.25% of the votes. Benigno Aquino III, following the loss of life of his mom Cory on August 1, 2009, gained the presidential race with 42.08% of the votes. (READ: Wanting again at EDSA II: The political paths of Estrada and Arroyo)

Why the curse?  

Every results of presidential repeaters will be analyzed when it comes to the candidate’s electoral historical past, efficiency in workplace, election marketing campaign, message, equipment, and whether or not she or he had sufficient cash. 

In the long run, nonetheless, the curse of repeat presidential candidates boils down to 1 essential aspect: they didn’t have the X-factor — that nearly magical connection, some say emotional bond, between candidate and voters — to win the race. Estrada clearly had the X-factor, successful in 1998 by a giant margin in his first try. However even his “Erap magic” failed to interrupt the curse within the 2010 presidential race.

Can Robredo break it if her supporters handle to persuade her to run once more? Maybe, however historical past post-1986 is just not on her facet.

Robredo has privately informed her shut allies a number of occasions and has publicly declared that she’s not operating once more for president in 2028. She stated she prefers to stay in Naga Metropolis and proceed her late husband Jesse Robredo’s legacy of fine native governance. (READ: Highlight: Robredo’s anti-corruption marketing campaign in Naga Metropolis)

Given the obvious curse of repeat presidential candidates, it’s maybe in the very best curiosity of the opposition that they let Robredo proceed her campaign in Naga. 

The opposition is just not with out candidates who can put up an excellent struggle towards Duterte. Sure, it is going to be an uphill battle, particularly given the Duterte fandom in some components of the Visayas and in massive areas of Mindanao. However any of these on the present bench may have a neater time now than in 2022, given the outrage over the Philippines’ worst corruption scandal.

And, if there’s one lesson that the 2025 mid-term elections taught us all, there might be extra younger voters in 2028 — the youth who shocked everybody by making Bam Aquino No. 2 and Kiko Pangilinan No. 5 within the Senate race and Akbayan No. 1 within the party-list elections. Their numbers may be sufficient to tug one other shock in 2028.

Duterte’s early leap within the ring merely makes it pressing for the opposition to pick its standard-bearer quickly in an effort to give her or him sufficient time to meet up with the clear frontrunner. – Rappler.com 

The 1992, 1998, 2004, and 2010 election outcomes knowledge used on this story are from the Philippine Electoral Almanac Revised and Expanded by the Presidential Communications Growth and Strategic Planning Workplace, 2015; 2016 and 2022 knowledge are from the official canvass of Congress.