California Republicans in Congress are vastly outnumbered by their Democratic counterparts within the state — and it could worsen.
5 of the 9 GOP seats are in danger after California voters handed Proposition 50 in Tuesday’s particular election. The measure, placed on the poll by the Democratic-led state Legislature, reshaped California congressional districts in a manner that was particularly designed to unseat Republican incumbents.
The brand new maps goal areas held by Reps. Kevin Kiley and Doug LaMalfa in Northern California, Rep. David Valadao within the Central Valley, and Reps. Ken Calvert, Younger Kim and Darrell Issa in Southern California. The novel reconfiguration not solely put Republicans in peril, however possible protects susceptible Democratic officeholders by including extra voters from their very own occasion into their reconfigured districts.
Already, California’s Republican members maintain simply 9 seats within the U.S. Home of Representatives, whereas Democrats have 43.
Proposition 50’s passage additionally units off a possible intra-party battle for a newly-created Republican seat in Riverside and Orange counties, which is anticipated to pit two GOP incumbents towards each other — Calvert of Corona and Kim of Anaheim Hills — possible knocking considered one of them out of workplace.
“With the passage of Prop. 50, Californians have been bought a invoice of products, permitting [Gov.] Gavin Newsom and his radical allies in Sacramento an unprecedented energy seize to redraw the Congressional map and silence those that disagree along with his excessive insurance policies,” Calvert stated in an announcement posted on social media Tuesday night time.
Newsom and different Democratic leaders argue that redistricting, which usually occurs as soon as a decade by an unbiased fee, was vital after GOP leaders in Texas redrew their very own congressional districts —on the request of President Trump — in a bid so as to add extra seats for his or her occasion and retain Republican management of the U.S. Home of Representatives.
The passage of Proposition 50 will increase Democratic efforts to win management of the Home after the 2026 election, a victory that possible would stifle components of Trump’s agenda and open the president and his administration to a litany of congressional investigations.
Proposition 50 is anticipated to exacerbate the political isolation that thousands and thousands of Republicans in California already really feel, particularly within the state’s huge northern and inland territories, and conservative suburban enclaves.
Trump received 38% of the presidential vote in California final yr. A couple of quarter of the state’s registered voters are Republicans. But, Democrats have held each statewide workplace since 2011, and have an iron-grip on the California congressional delegation.
Some California Republicans could also be left asking: “Who in Congress is representing our views and who can we flip to?” stated Mark Baldassare, survey director of the nonpartisan Public Coverage Institute of California.
Prepare dinner Political Report, which tracks elections, modified 11 California congressional district race scores Tuesday, with all however one district shifting in Democrats’ favor.
Political marketing consultant Rob Stutzman stays skeptical that Democrats will win all 5 congressional seats focused by Newsom within the 2026 middterm elections. A few of the GOP representatives have deep roots locally and have survived previous challenges by Democrats, Stutzman stated.
Newsom and others “could have overpromised what Prop. 50 may do,” Stutzman stated.
Listed below are the highest 5 Republicans whose districts have been modified by Proposition 50 and who could discover their political future in danger.
Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R-Richvale)
In Northern California, LaMalfa seems prone to run in considered one of two redesigned districts: One which stretches towards Mendocino Nationwide Forest and south towards Santa Rosa, or one other that runs alongside the Oregon border and down the coast to the San Francisco Bay Space.
His present district, which spreads throughout the deeply conservative northeast nook of California to the Sacramento suburbs, was carved up by Proposition 50 and changed with three districts that favor Democrats.
“They’re not going to kidnap my district right here and not using a battle,” LaMalfa, 65, stated Tuesday.
Democrats operating for Congressional District 1’s seat — the seat that features Mendocino Nationwide Forest — embrace Audrey Denney, an schooling director who unsuccessfully challenged LaMalfa in 2018 and 2020.
Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-Rocklin)
Kiley’s new district takes in neighborhoods in and round Sacramento, pulling in Democratic voters and dropping former Republican communities alongside the Nevada border.
He just lately instructed the Instances that he believes he may nonetheless win with the brand new maps, however hasn’t stated which district he’ll search.
On Tuesday night time, he promised to “work throughout occasion strains to discover a nationwide resolution to the age-old plague of gerrymandering, and specifically, to the newer affliction of mid-decade gerrymandering.”
Kiley, 40, has urged Home Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) to finish the federal shutdown. A longtime critic of Newsom, Kiley ran unsuccessfully towards him throughout the 2021 recall election.
Kiley instructed reporters Wednesday morning he’s nonetheless reviewing his choices. “My present district is cut up six other ways,” he stated. “In that sense, I’ve lots of choices.”
Two well-known Democrats introduced bids for the 2 separate, new Sacramento-area seats on Tuesday night time. Rep. Ami Bera (D-Elk Grove) will run for California’s newly-minted third Congressional District and former California legislator Dr. Richard Pan. Pan, who pushed to extend the vaccination fee, will search the neighboring sixth Congressional District.
Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford)
Valadao’s predominately Latino district within the Central Valley extends north post-Proposition 50, gaining extra registered Democrats.
Nonetheless, extra Democratic voters doesn’t essentially translate to a Democratic victory, given the conservative attitudes within the area. A dairy farmer, Valadao, 48, has survived previous challenges, partially resulting from poor turnout amongst Democrats and his recognition amongst reasonable voters within the Central Valley.
Amongst those that have introduced their intention to problem Valadao is Visalia college board trustee Randy Villegas, a Democrat.
Valadao was among the many few Republicans who voted to question President Trump following the Jan. 6 assault on the U.S. Capitol by Trump supporters, growing his enchantment to Democratic voters. However he may be susceptible due to his assist for Trump’s “Huge Lovely Invoice,” which lower medical advantages for roughly two-thirds of his constituents. The consultant argued his district will get concessions for rural hospitals, water infrastructure, and agricultural investments within the laws.
A Valadao spokesperson didn’t instantly reply for a request for remark Tuesday night time.
Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Corona) and Rep. Younger Kim (R-Anaheim Hills)
Practically all of Calvert’s district was moved north, and now takes within the Los Angeles County communities of Pomona, Ontario and Fontana.
Nonetheless, Calvert, 72, introduced he would run for the newly shaped fortieth Congressional District, which incorporates western Riverside County and jap Orange County, together with his hometown of Corona, in addition to Murrieta and Mission Viejo. It’s a strongly Republican district now shared by Republican colleague Rep. Younger Kim of Anaheim Hills.
“Californians within the newly drawn fortieth District deserve a confirmed conservative they’ll belief and a fighter who has delivered outcomes for Riverside and Orange County for many years,” Calvert stated in an announcement Wednesday. “Nobody else comes near my file of service to the brand new fortieth. I’ve lived right here my whole life and already symbolize nearly all of this district in Congress.”
Calvert praised Trump’s financial file and efforts to “safe our borders,” a direct enchantment to the president’s MAGA base residing within the area.
Michael Moodian, public coverage researcher at Chapman College, expects Calvert will face a “powerful battle” if he faces off towards Kim within the 2026 election.
Calvert is the longest-serving Republican member of California’s congressional delegation and is well-known amongst voters within the space, whereas Kim is a powerful fundraiser and has a reasonable tone on condition that her present district is politically divided, stated Moodian.
Kim, 63, one of many first Korean American ladies elected to Congress, final yr received a 3rd time period, fended off a problem from Democrat Joe Kerr, a retired fireplace captain.
A Kim spokesperson didn’t instantly reply to a request for remark.
Calvert, in his assertion Tuesday, vowed to “to maintain preventing for the households I symbolize in Congress.”
Calvert has survived earlier redistricting rounds, together with in 2021, when the overwhelmingly liberal Palm Springs — the primary metropolis within the nation to elect an all-LGBTQ metropolis council — was added to his district and the Republican-heavy Temecula was taken out.
In 2024, Calvert fended off former federal prosecutor Will Rollins, besting the younger Democrat 51.7% to 48.3%.
Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Bonsall)
Put up-Proposition 50, Issa’s Republican stronghold in Southern California turns into extra narrowly divided amongst Democrats and Republicans and will get a bigger share of Latino voters. Like Calvert and Kim, Issa could resolve to run within the new Republican-majority seat in Riverside and Orange counties.
“California is my residence,” Issa stated Tuesday night time. “And it’s price preventing for,”
He known as Proposition 50 “the worst gerrymander in historical past” and vowed to proceed to symbolize “the individuals of California — no matter their occasion or the place they stay.”
Issa, 72, misplaced a authorized problem final week over the brand new maps, which he sought to dam.
In keeping with the criticism filed in federal court docket, Issa claimed he could be harmed as a result of he would lose “seniority benefits in committee proceedings” and have “diminished affect over legislative priorities and committee work affecting my constituents,” NBC7 in San Diego reported.
Democratic San Diego Metropolis Councilmember Marni von Wilpert and perennial candidate Ammar Campa-Najjar are amongst these difficult Issa in his new seat.
