NFL Week 12 might have a hard time matching the excitement that Week 11 brought us.
Last Sunday, five teams won with a field goal on the final play of the game, tying an NFL record.
With just seven weeks left in the regular season, let’s look at every game from Week 12 and find a best bet in each one.
Welcome to the Week 12 edition of Will’s Wagers.
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Nick Chubb Over 21.5 Rushing Yards
The Bills are likely headed for the playoffs, but will have to overcome a subpar run defense to make a deep run. They are 31st in the league in both yards per carry allowed and yards per game allowed. With the Texans likely starting backup quarterback Davis Mills once again, look for Houston to rely heavily on the run game.
Patriots team total Over 28.5 points
The Bengals are allowing a league-worst 6.3 yards per play, as well as a league-worst 33.6 points per game — dead last in the league by a wide margin. The Patriots should score at will, as do most Cincinnati opponents.
Lions -10.5
We’re unsure as to who will play quarterback for the Giants on Sunday, but it will either be a mistake-prone Jameis Winston or Jaxson Dart coming off of a concussion. The Lions are off of a rough performance Sunday night against the Eagles. I expect them to bounce back in a big way.
Titans team total Under 13.5
Perhaps a matchup of the best defense in the league vs. the worst offense in the league. Points should be very hard to come by here for the overmatched Titans.
JETS @ RAVENS
Jets +13.5
As bad as this season (and many seasons before) has gone for the Jets, in the last three games, they have covered twice and pushed on a game they probably should have covered against the Patriots. Now, they have extra rest as they take on the surging Ravens. I’ll take the points here, as Ravens’ quarterback Lamar Jackson continues to miss practice time on a weekly basis. Jackson hasn’t looked like himself, and is coming off a 10-yard-rushing performance against the Browns.
Colts +3.5
At 5-5, the Chiefs can ill-afford many more losses if they hope to get back to the playoffs. As scary as it is to bet against Patrick Mahomes in a borderline must-win game, getting 3.5 is the play here backing a rested and talented Colts team coming off of a bye.
JJ McCarthy Under 30.5 passing attempts
If the Vikings are going to keep their playoff hopes alive, they likely need an upset win in Green Bay on Sunday. If they’re going to get that win, running the ball and playing good defense will have to be the formula, as their young quarterback has struggled immensely in his first NFL action this season.
Steelers +2.5
Mike Tomlin excels as an underdog, and the Bears have been winning in a way that is unsustainable — 22 takeaways versus just six turnovers, leading to a league-high +16 turnover differential. The Steelers are known for winning the turnover battle themselves, so I’ll take the points in what should be a very close game.
Trey McBride Over 70.5 receiving yards
McBride has gotten into the end zone five straight weeks and is coming off of a game where he caught 10 of his 11 targets for 115 yards, which followed a 13-target 127-yard performance the week prior. Look for McBride to continue to shine for the struggling Cardinals.
1st quarter to end in a tie (+280)
This will be a fun one to bet, in a game where fun might be hard to come by. The total of 36.5 is one of the lowest we’ll see all season. A 3-3 or 0-0 first quarter is very much in play.
Eagles -3
Yes, the Cowboys’ new and improved defense looked good Monday night in a road win over the Raiders. But, the Eagles seemed to have figured things out defensively as well. I still believe they are several notches above the Cowboys. I’ll lay the points with the defending champs.
Falcons +2.5
Kirk Cousins will be at quarterback for the Falcons, as he returns to the site of his lone career playoff victory, a 2019 wild-card win as a member of the Vikings. The Falcons are among the most disappointing teams in the league, but should the Saints be laying points to anyone? Taking the points here is the only way I could go.
Over 50.5 longest field goal made
If either team makes one from 51+ yards, this bet is a winner. While the Rams’ kicking situation is murky, Bucs’ kicker Chase McLaughlin is 8-for-8 on the year from 50+, including making a 65-yarder. In ideal kicking conditions, with two teams that can move the ball, I think there’s a good chance somebody connects on a long one.
Over 49.5 combined points scored
The 49ers won convincingly last week, but allowed nearly 500 yards of offense to the Cardinals, at about seven yards per play. The 49ers’ offense is rolling, but their defense is decimated by injuries. After a 41-22 win last week, 49.5 is too low.
Will Hill, a contributor on the Bear Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.
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