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“If they play like this, you never know how far they can go.”
Those were the words of FOX Sports play-by-play announcer Jason Benetti after Wisconsin junior John Blackwell scored his 21st point of the night on a driving layup with just under three minutes remaining, putting the proverbial cherry on top of a dominant offensive showing from the Badgers’ backcourt Friday night at the Kohl Center.
Blackwell finished with 24 points, while fellow guard Nick Boyd poured in a game-high 29 on 5-of-7 shooting from beyond the arc as Wisconsin overwhelmed Michigan State, 92-71, notching its third win over an AP Top 10 opponent — the most in college basketball this season.
Here are our takeaways:
1. This is a Wisconsin team no one should want to play in March
Nick Boyd #2 of the Wisconsin Badgers reacts after making a 3-point shot against Michigan State. (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images)
When it comes to résumés, Wisconsin has one of the strangest to make sense of. The Badgers entered Friday night’s matchup against the Spartans with a 17-7 record, including a pair of top-10 wins over No. 2 Michigan (91-88) and No. 8 Illinois (92-90, OT). But Greg Gard’s team has also suffered four defeats against unranked opponents, including TCU, USC and Indiana — three programs that all rank outside the top 30 in KenPom.
To further understand the complexity of the Badgers’ résumé, look no further than their offensive and defensive efficiency rankings entering Friday night. The Badgers ranked 18th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and 56th in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom. Yet against elite competition, Gard’s team has shot the lights out, including a 43% clip from beyond the arc in Friday’s win over Michigan State.
In a 68-team postseason tournament — where getting there is the hardest part and, once the ball is tipped, anything can happen — this is a Wisconsin group that has shown it can compete with anyone on any given night. And when the shots are falling and the backcourt is dictating tempo, the Badgers possess the kind of offensive ceiling that can make a second-weekend run feel far more realistic than their résumé might initially suggest.
2. It’s easy to understand why Tom Izzo regrets not recruiting John Blackwell
John Blackwell #25 of the Wisconsin Badgers goes to the basket on Jaxon Kohler #0 of the Michigan State Spartans. (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images)
Michigan State head coach Tom Izzo doesn’t have many recruiting regrets over his 31 years at the helm, but the Hall of Famer didn’t hold back earlier this week when asked about Blackwell, a Bloomfield Hills, Michigan native who flew under the radar during his high school career.
“I’d like to fire all my assistants who went through that with me,” Izzo said on Wednesday. “The problem is, the head coach went down and saw him, too.”
After scoring just five points in the opening half, Blackwell erupted for 19 in the second, finishing 6-of-14 from the field and 4-of-9 from beyond the arc. He outplayed Michigan State sophomore guard Jeremy Fears, who had been performing at an All-American level entering Friday night’s matchup. Blackwell and the Badgers largely kept Fears in check, holding him to 14 points on 3-of-10 shooting.
Blackwell has now scored 24 or more points in all three of Wisconsin’s wins over AP Top 10 teams.
3. Michigan State’s slow starts are becoming a real problem
Michigan State head coach Tom Izzo argues a call against the Wisconsin Badgers. (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images)
This marked the fifth straight game that Michigan State has trailed at the half. While two of those contests resulted in comeback wins, there was no second-half surge Friday night. In fact, over the past five games, the Spartans have been outscored in the first half by an average of 11.4 points, a dangerous trend for a team with national championship aspirations.
A major factor in those sluggish starts has been the uneven play of standout forward Jaxon Kohler. The 6-foot-9 senior looked well on his way to an all-conference season during the first half of the campaign. But since the Spartans’ 81-60 win over Indiana on Jan. 13, Kohler’s production has dipped significantly. He hasn’t topped 12 points in a game since that night in Bloomington, and his 3-point percentage has fallen below 41% after hovering north of 65% through the team’s first 16 games.
Kohler finished with five points — his second-lowest output of the season — and went scoreless in the first half Friday, not recording his first basket until the 16:13 mark of the second. With Michigan State already struggling to generate early offense, it can’t afford for one of its primary scoring options to go scoreless for a half. Against elite competition, those deficits become too steep to climb.
4. This is the strongest the top of the Big Ten has been in years
John Blackwell #25 of the Wisconsin Badgers grabs a loose ball with Kur Teng #2 of the Michigan State Spartans. (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images)
With Wisconsin’s win over Michigan State, six Big Ten teams now sit at 10-4 or better in conference play. Michigan leads the way at 13-1, while Illinois, Purdue, Nebraska, Michigan State and Wisconsin form a tightly packed tier that feels capable of beating one another on any given night.
That depth is reflected nationally. Five of those six programs — Wisconsin being the exception — were projected as No. 3 seeds or better in FOX Sports bracket forecaster Mike DeCourcy’s latest NCAA Tournament projections. DeCourcy has the Big Ten sending 10 teams to the NCAA Tournament, with Michigan State on the 3-line and Wisconsin on the 8-line.
Could this be the year the Big Ten finally captures its first national championship since 2000? As the calendar turns toward March, it certainly feels that way.
4 ½: What’s next?
Wisconsin’s impressive victory over Michigan State marked the final game on the Badgers’ schedule against a ranked opponent until their regular-season finale against No. 13 Purdue on March 7. Before that, the Badgers face a stretch of five consecutive unranked opponents, beginning with a road trip to Ohio State (Feb. 17) and a home game against Iowa (Feb. 22). If Greg Gard’s team can maintain its offensive rhythm, it has a clear opportunity to build momentum heading into the showdown with the Boilermakers.
The Spartans undoubtedly have a back-loaded schedule, with road matchups against Purdue (Feb. 26), Indiana (March 1) and rival Michigan (March 8) still looming. Back-to-back home matchup against UCLA (Feb. 17) and Ohio State (Feb. 22) should offer Tom Izzo’s team an opportunity to get back in the win column.
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