The battle in Iran may elevate international meals costs because the battle disrupts fertilizer shipments by means of one of many world’s most crucial commerce routes.
Whereas vitality markets have centered on oil provide dangers, analysts say threats to fertilizer provide chains by means of the Straight of Hormuz can also convey long-term financial points by means of meals inflation.
“Past vitality, one other danger receiving much less consideration is the potential knock-on impact on meals costs, as fertilizer shortages push agricultural prices greater,” mentioned Wolfe Analysis chief economist Stephanie Roth in a be aware written on Tuesday.
Roth estimates the disruption may elevate “food-at-home” inflation by roughly 2 proportion factors, including about 0.15 proportion factors to headline inflation within the U.S., on high of roughly 0.40 proportion level enhance from vitality.
These potential worth hikes come as U.S. customers face a sustained stretch of upper costs for meals, housing and vitality. Inflation for meals at dwelling climbed 2.4% yr over yr in February, the Bureau of Labor Statistics mentioned Wednesday.
Clients store at Walmart on January 22, 2026 in Little Rock, Arkansas.
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A couple of-third of worldwide traded fertilizer passes by means of the Straight of Hormuz, making it a vital artery for agricultural provide chains. Industrial site visitors by means of the route has largely been halted for the reason that battle began late final month, disrupting shipments simply as farmers throughout the Northern Hemisphere put together fields for spring planting.
The timing is vital as a result of fertilizers are utilized early within the crop cycle and assist decide yields later within the yr.
“If fertilizer provide tightens throughout this window, farmers could scale back software charges,” Roth mentioned within the be aware. That would scale back yields for crops like corn, soybeans, wheat and rice and enhance agricultural prices.
Economists within the fertilizer trade are equally involved and say costs are already rising.
Between the weeks ending Feb. 27 and March 6 — which embody the beginning of the battle — the value per brief ton of urea fertilizer imports within the U.S. jumped by 30%, based on information collected by trade advocacy group The Fertilizer Institute.
Urea — a nitrogen-based fertilizer broadly used to spice up crop yields — is among the most closely traded fertilizers shifting by means of the area.
Increased fertilizer costs for farmers and retailers may finally elevate meals prices for customers if the commerce disruption lasts, mentioned Veronica Nigh, chief economist at The Fertilizer Institute.
“It is a international influence on fertilizer prices,” mentioned Nigh. “I might think about that there can be far more passing on of those prices to customers on this state of affairs, which isn’t one thing we’ve got seen earlier than.”
The U.S. depends on international fertilizer markets, importing roughly 20% of its complete use, although nitrogen fertilizers like urea come from a extra wide-ranging group of suppliers together with Canada, Trinidad and Tobago, Russia and elsewhere.
The ripple impact may stretch around the globe and past commodities. Asia and Africa are particularly depending on fertilizer exports from the Gulf area. Nations similar to India rely closely on Gulf provides, whereas a number of African economies rely upon imported supplies used to supply fertilizers.
Whereas disruptions to fertilizer shipments may decrease crop yields for farmers and lift prices for households, fertilizer producers may stand to profit.
CF Industries hit an all-time excessive Monday and shares are up almost 10% over the previous week, their largest multi-day achieve since 2022.
