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Investigative Reports

Maricopa County Election Probe Is Based mostly on Flawed Data — ProPublica

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Last updated: March 12, 2026 6:52 pm
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Maricopa County Election Probe Is Based mostly on Flawed Data — ProPublica
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This week, when 2020 voting info from Maricopa County, Arizona, was handed over to the FBI, it may need appeared like a replay of the company’s late January raid in Fulton County, Georgia.

Each are massive counties in swing states that voted for Joe Biden in 2020, and each have lengthy been targets of President Donald Trump’s claims that that 12 months’s presidential election was stolen from him.

However the proof collected from Maricopa County is essentially totally different, in ways in which election specialists say threaten the accuracy and integrity of the federal authorities’s investigation.

In Fulton, the FBI took the precise ballots forged within the county’s 2020 election, which had been stored in safe court docket storage services. In Maricopa, a federal grand jury subpoenaed digital information associated to a partisan audit of the county’s vote, in accordance with Arizona Senate President Warren Petersen, the subpoena’s recipient.

This materials — which can have included scans and photographs of ballots — was saved by the Senate, not the county. Maricopa County destroyed the unique ballots after two years, as state legislation requires.

The agency employed by Senate Republican leaders to run the audit, the Cyber Ninjas, was funded by and took route from Trump allies. Its chief, Doug Logan, privately admitted in textual content messages obtained by journalists through public information requests that its poll recounts have been “screwy.” County leaders, each Republicans and Democrats, and nonpartisan outdoors observers documented a number of methods Logan’s staff had didn’t comply with procedures to stop tampering. (Logan didn’t reply to a request for remark.)

A number of election specialists, together with some who watched the Arizona audit in particular person in 2021, stated any investigation primarily based on the Cyber Ninja information could be fatally flawed.

“Accessing invalid information will solely draw inaccurate conclusions and danger additional degradation of public confidence,” stated Ryan Macias, a nationwide elections expertise marketing consultant who noticed the audit on behalf of the Arizona secretary of state’s workplace.

The Division of Justice and White Home didn’t reply questions from ProPublica on specialists’ issues concerning the high quality of the information and information produced underneath the subpoena. A spokesperson for the Arizona U.S. lawyer’s workplace declined to answer questions on whether or not it was concerned within the case, saying it was towards coverage to touch upon grand jury subpoenas or proceedings.

Petersen, a Republican who helped launch the audit in 2021 and handed over the information to the FBI, didn’t say underneath which court docket’s authority the grand jury subpoena was issued or reply to a query on its foundation. Neither Petersen nor a spokesperson for the Arizona Senate gave particulars on what precisely the FBI collected. The Senate has not launched the subpoena.

The subpoena is the most recent salvo within the Trump administration’s unprecedented try and reinvestigate purported issues within the 2020 election.

The White Home has tasked Kurt Olsen, a lawyer who tried to help Trump in overturning his loss, with serving to to guide the felony inquiry. Olsen helped provoke the Fulton County case, which is being overseen by Thomas Albus, the U.S. lawyer for the Jap District of Missouri, in accordance with the supporting affidavit. It’s not but clear whether or not Olsen or Albus is concerned within the Maricopa County investigation.

The Arizona audit started in April 2021, after the Senate’s Republican management subpoenaed Maricopa County for scans of all 2.1 million ballots, the county’s voter rolls and different voting system information, reminiscent of logs exhibiting who accessed the system. The Senate additionally had materials that the Cyber Ninjas shared from the audit, reminiscent of sheets used to tally votes and monitor anomalies in addition to information from the county’s election administration system and poll tabulators.

Cyber Ninjas pulled information from the Dominion Voting Techniques machines the county utilized in 2020, so the FBI presumably has that materials. Trump falsely claimed after the election that Dominion voting machines had been hacked, switching votes for him to register as votes for Biden. The Trump administration has been attempting to entry Dominion machines from different areas since he took workplace. Fox Information and Newsmax settled defamation lawsuits with Dominion after making related claims, agreeing to pay the corporate thousands and thousands.

Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs, a Democrat who was secretary of state throughout the 2021 audit, stated in an interview with ProPublica that it’s unclear what has occurred to the information within the 5 years they’ve been out of the county’s fingers.

“I don’t suppose anybody ought to trust in no matter comes out of no matter was turned over to the FBI,” Hobbs stated.

Maricopa County’s 2020 election outcomes have been confirmed repeatedly, each by the county’s postelection hand-count and by a number of audits carried out by unbiased companies commissioned by the county. Courts tossed out a number of instances filed by legal professionals for Trump alleging fraud.

The Cyber Ninjas’ evaluation, which additionally concluded that Biden received, drew intense criticism from the get-go, each for its methodology and its partisanship.

One of many audit managers was Heather Honey, who now holds a key publish within the Trump administration because the Division of Homeland Safety’s deputy assistant secretary for election integrity. The contractor carried out its evaluation with out county or Senate workers current and solely allowed in observers from Hobbs’ workplace after a court docket demanded extra transparency.

The agency’s employees made errors recounting votes forged within the presidential race, preserving three separate tally sheets for every batch of ballots that usually mirrored totally different totals, a secretary of state’s workplace report discovered. Additionally they had black and blue pens out as they took photographs of ballots, inflicting concern amongst observers concerning the potential for tampering. The contractor despatched information collected from poll tabulators to a Montana cabin for evaluation and wouldn’t say how — or if — it had protected the information from hacking.

Arizona Secretary of State Adrian Fontes, a Democrat, stated in an interview that the contractor’s sloppy procedures would make it unlikely a court docket would settle for the information handed over to the FBI as proof proving irregularities within the 2020 vote.

“You may simply poke holes in any of these things,” Fontes stated.

Cyber Ninjas generally mistook routine facets of the election course of as indicators of wrongdoing. It introduced that 74,000 extra mail-in ballots had been forged in Maricopa County than had been despatched out. There was a easy rationalization for the discrepancy, nevertheless: The ballots hadn’t been despatched out; they’d been given to the voters by hand at early voting areas.

Ken Bennett, a Republican who was the Arizona Senate’s liaison to the audit and is a former Arizona secretary of state, stated in an interview that he thinks the county’s authentic election outcomes have been appropriate.

“The one proof I might discover of errors made by the county have been minor errors that had nothing to do with whether or not or not they got here up with the correct outcomes,” Bennett stated.

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