Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party is positioned as the frontrunner to secure a state seat from the incumbent Labor party in a Western Australian by-election this Saturday. The contest in the southern Perth electorate of Secret Harbour is drawing significant attention, with potential implications reaching the federal political landscape. A victory for One Nation would represent a notable shift, marking the first time the populist minor party has claimed a traditional Labor stronghold and potentially signaling trends for future federal elections.
One Nation’s Growing Ambitions in Western Australia
One Nation has declared its intention to contest every seat in the upcoming federal election and is actively targeting Labor’s traditional support bases, particularly in Western Australia. Recent polling indicates a rise in One Nation’s primary vote, climbing to 26 percent, a two-percentage-point increase. This places them closely behind the Labor party, which has seen a one-percentage-point rise to 29 percent. The Liberal-National Coalition’s primary vote has dipped to 21 percent, a one-point decrease, while the Greens remain steady at 12 percent.
The importance of Western Australia to the federal Labor government, led by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, is underscored by his frequent visits to the state. Albanese has emphasized his commitment to the state’s GST arrangements, reaffirming the 75 percent floor introduced under the previous Coalition government. This policy, designed to ensure Western Australia receives a minimum share of GST revenue, has faced criticism from other states but remains a key element of the federal government’s approach to WA.
Federal Implications and Local Dynamics
The federal seat of Canning, which overlaps with Secret Harbour, is held by Liberal MP Andrew Hastie. Hastie, a vocal critic of One Nation, has urged his state colleagues to campaign vigorously, pointing to recent electoral swings in his favor, including gains in historically Labor-voting areas. One Nation has reportedly targeted Hastie with persistent personal attacks, leading to increased security measures for his offices.
Senator Hanson has publicly supported Ben Roberts-Smith, a former special forces soldier facing war crimes allegations, referring to him as a “war hero.” This stance has drawn criticism, particularly given Hastie’s decision to testify in the case. The by-election in Secret Harbour was triggered by the resignation of long-serving Labor MP Paul Papalia, who stepped down due to a family health matter.
The Candidates and Their Platforms
Labor has nominated Georgia Tree, a former adviser to federal resources minister Madeleine King and a past employee of energy giant Woodside. Tree is campaigning on a platform of continuity, aiming to build on Papalia’s legacy and align with the policies of Premier Roger Cook’s state government. Her campaign highlights her working-class background and emphasizes her commitment to issues such as cost of living relief, education, and healthcare, drawing on personal experiences.
The Liberal opposition has selected Rockingham City Councillor and real estate agent Ryan Robertson. An ex-Navy submariner, Robertson is focusing on his support for small businesses and veterans, and his understanding of the electorate’s challenges, particularly concerning infrastructure development and population growth.
One Nation’s candidate, Luke Herdegen, is widely considered the main challenger to Labor. A local business owner, Herdegen’s background includes various blue-collar roles before he became a franchisee in Rockingham. His campaign emphasizes fairness, societal stability, and rewarding hard work, while also addressing the needs of those requiring assistance. Herdegen has previously addressed past social media posts detailing cocaine use, framing them as part of a journey towards a healthier life and stating that such issues are not a primary concern for voters he encounters.
Key Issues in Secret Harbour
The Secret Harbour by-election is being contested against a backdrop of familiar national concerns. Residents in this outer metropolitan growth corridor are experiencing pressures related to mortgage stress, rising rents, high fuel costs for tradespeople, and infrastructure development struggling to keep pace with population increases.
Despite a significant swing against Labor in the area during the previous state election, the Cook government has made substantial funding commitments for local community facilities, roadworks, and infrastructure upgrades in response to these challenges.
Polling and Electoral Outlook
Current polling suggests Labor maintains a lead in Secret Harbour, though the by-election dynamics could lead to shifts. A recent DemosAU poll indicated Labor’s primary vote at 33 percent, unchanged from earlier in the year. However, the Liberal vote has declined by two points, placing them and One Nation neck-and-neck at 21 percent. On a two-party preferred basis, Labor leads the Liberals 54-46 percent.
A significant portion of surveyed Western Australians, 45 percent, believe the state is heading in the wrong direction, an increase from previous months. Voter sentiment also shows a rise in dissatisfaction with the state government’s handling of housing and cost of living issues.
Analysts suggest that while Labor may see a swing against its primary vote, One Nation is likely to outperform the Liberals. The ultimate outcome of the by-election, specifically whether One Nation can unseat Labor, will depend on the effectiveness of their local campaign efforts and the distribution of preferences from Liberal voters, other minor parties, and independent candidates.
Polling stations in Secret Harbour will open at 8 am local time and close at 6 pm, with counting to commence immediately thereafter.
