One Nation candidate Luke Herdegen received a final rallying cry from party leader Pauline Hanson to “go hard” on the closing day of the Secret Harbour by-election campaign. Senator Hanson conveyed her encouragement via text message on Friday, expressing pride in Mr. Herdegen’s dedication throughout the “gruelling campaign” and emphasizing that his efforts had put both the Labor and Liberal parties “on notice.” She assured him of support from the party’s east coast members, regardless of the outcome.
One Nation’s Ambitious Bid in a Safe Labor Seat
The Secret Harbour by-election presented a significant opportunity for One Nation to make history in Western Australia by securing its first seat in the state’s Legislative Assembly. Historically a safe Labor seat with a margin of nearly 12 percent, the contest was made more competitive by the retirement of the incumbent Labor member, Paul Papalia, who also served as a minister. This vacancy, coupled with a resurgent One Nation, created a unique political landscape.
Senator Hanson also spoke with Mr. Herdegen by phone on Saturday morning, reiterating One Nation’s strategy to actively target Labor-held seats. While Senator Hanson was unable to attend the party’s function in Karnup on election night, her final message to the 39-year-old candidate was one of strong encouragement to “go hard on the final day” and a promise to call later that evening.
Factors Influencing the Secret Harbour By-Election
Several national issues have been prominent during the campaign, significantly impacting the dynamics of the Secret Harbour by-election. Surging cost-of-living pressures and the ongoing housing crisis, which One Nation attributes in part to immigration levels, have resonated with voters. The perceived unpopularity of federal Labor leader Anthony Albanese has also been cited as a factor complicating WA Labor’s efforts to retain the seat.
The campaign itself was not without its controversies. Reports emerged of campaign missteps by the Labor party, including preventing their candidate, Georgia Tree, from speaking at an announcement regarding a new train station in Karnup. These incidents were seen as potentially benefiting One Nation’s campaign.
Candidate Residency and Voter Concerns
A point of discussion during the campaign was the residency of the main candidates. Neither the One Nation candidate, Luke Herdegen, nor the Liberal candidate, Mr. Robertson, reside within the Secret Harbour electorate. Mr. Herdegen and Mr. Robertson live in the nearby Rockingham area, while Ms. Tree resides in Perth, despite having spent her formative years in Warnbro. Labor sources privately acknowledged that Ms. Tree’s Perth residency may have negatively impacted their campaign’s local connection.
Mr. Herdegen, a 39-year-old gym owner, expressed confidence in One Nation’s potential to win the seat based on primary votes. This optimism comes despite One Nation securing only 8.4 percent of the primary vote in the March 2025 state election, compared to Labor’s 46.6 percent. However, the political climate has shifted considerably since then, with One Nation achieving notable successes in other regions, including winning four lower house seats in South Australia and a federal seat previously held by the Liberal Party. Federally, One Nation’s primary vote is reported to be nearly on par with Labor’s, hovering just under 30 percent.
Intense Campaigning and Election Day Procedures
The WA Labor party invested heavily in retaining the Secret Harbour seat, reportedly spending an unprecedented $400,000. Despite this significant expenditure, internal Labor sources indicated a degree of apprehension, with hopes for a “miracle” but preparations for a potential loss.
The Secret Harbour electorate, located south of Rockingham, comprises 36,407 eligible voters. A substantial portion, 45 percent, had already cast their ballots through pre-poll and postal voting prior to election day. The Western Australian Electoral Commission (WAEC) outlined the vote counting process, noting that while an indicative result was expected on Saturday evening, the final declaration would not occur until after September 3, pending the verification and counting of all postal votes. WAEC Commissioner Dennis O’Reilly cautioned that the presence of 16 candidates on the ballot paper would likely extend the counting period.
One Nation’s Confidence and Voter Sentiment
Rod Caddies, the leader of One Nation in WA and a Member of the Legislative Council, expressed confidence in the party’s prospects for victory, while maintaining a tone of cautious optimism. He stressed that the party was not taking the potential win for granted and would continue working to persuade voters until the polls closed.
Mr. Caddies elaborated on the key issues raised by voters throughout the campaign. He highlighted that cost of living and housing affordability were consistently mentioned concerns, with many voters expressing anxieties about the impact of rising immigration on housing availability and the growing issue of homelessness, particularly in areas like Rockingham. These concerns, he suggested, were contributing to a broader dissatisfaction with the current government.
The campaign also saw visits from prominent political figures. Senator Hanson and federal Liberal leader Angus Taylor made appearances in Secret Harbour. In contrast, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, despite being in Perth for three days and attending high-priced fundraisers, did not visit the electorate. Mr. Caddies suggested that Mr. Albanese’s perceived unpopularity and a history of broken promises, particularly regarding negative gearing and capital gains tax changes, were influencing voter sentiment against Labor. He noted that voters frequently expressed a lack of trust in the Labor party, extending even to state-level issues, citing the delayed delivery of the Karnup Train Station as an example of a broken promise.
Conclusion: A Tight Contest with National Implications
The Secret Harbour by-election represented a critical juncture for One Nation’s ambitions in Western Australia. With national concerns like the cost of living and housing dominating voter discussions, and questions surrounding the incumbent government’s performance and promises, the stage was set for a potentially historic outcome. The final push from party leadership, combined with voter sentiment on key economic and social issues, underscored the significance of this contest beyond the local electorate.
