Greenback Weak spot Spurs Quick Protecting in Nat-Fuel Futures

September Nymex pure fuel (NGU25) on Tuesday closed up +0.021 (+0.78%).

Sep nat-gas costs on Tuesday settled increased as a weaker greenback spurred some gentle brief overlaying in nat-gas futures.

Pure fuel costs have been underneath strain over the previous 2.5 months and dropped to a 9.5-month nearest-futures low on Monday on forecasts for cooler late-summer climate.  Forecaster Vaisala on Monday stated lower-than-normal temperatures will blanket the US from North Carolina to Northern California for September 4-8, which can cut back demand for nat-gas to run air con.

Ramped-up US nat-gas manufacturing is one other bearish issue for costs.  On August 12, the EIA raised its forecast for 2025 US nat-gas manufacturing by +0.5% to 106.44 bcf/day from July’s estimate of 105.9 bcf/day.  The EIA raised its forecast for 2026 US nat-gas manufacturing by +0.7% to 106.09 from July’s 105.4 bcf/day forecast.  US nat-gas manufacturing is at the moment close to a file excessive, with lively US nat-gas rigs not too long ago posting a 2-year excessive.

US (lower-48) dry fuel manufacturing on Tuesday was 107.3 bcf/day (+4.5% y/y), in keeping with BNEF.  Decrease-48 state fuel demand on Tuesday was 73.9 bcf/day (-10.7% y/y), in keeping with BNEF.  Estimated LNG web flows to US LNG export terminals on Tuesday have been 14.9 bcf/day (+8.2% w/w), in keeping with BNEF.

As a supportive issue for fuel costs, the Edison Electrical Institute reported final Wednesday that US (lower-48) electrical energy output within the week ended August 16 rose +7.1% y/y to 99,160 GWh (gigawatt hours), and US electrical energy output within the 52-week interval ending August 16 rose +2.7% y/y to 4,264,139 GWh.

Final Thursday’s weekly EIA report was bullish for nat-gas costs since nat-gas inventories for the week ended August 15 rose +13 bcf, beneath the consensus of +18 bcf and nicely beneath the 5-year weekly common of +35 bcf.  As of August 15, nat-gas inventories have been down -3.0% y/y, however have been +5.8% above their 5-year seasonal common, signaling ample nat-gas provides.  As of August 24, fuel storage in Europe was 76% full, in comparison with the 5-year seasonal common of 84% full for this time of 12 months.

Baker Hughes reported final Friday that the variety of lively US nat-gas drilling rigs within the week ending August 22 was unchanged at 122 rigs, slightly below the 2-year excessive of 124 rigs posted on August 1.  Up to now 12 months, the variety of fuel rigs has risen from the 4-year low of 94 rigs reported in September 2024.

On the date of publication, Wealthy Asplund didn’t have (both straight or not directly) positions in any of the securities talked about on this article. All data and information on this article is solely for informational functions. This text was initially revealed on Barchart.com