The first round of the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs is often considered one of not beating yourself.
But take a look at the 2025 postseason standings, and it appears that just hoping something bad happens to four other drivers might not be the best strategy.
The playoffs started with only 11 points separating seventh through 16th in the standings. After one race, that margin increased to 38.
Which driver will capture the NASCAR Cup Series Championship trophy at Phoenix?
NASCAR’s playoffs are based on three-race rounds (every team still competes even if not a playoff team). If a driver who’s still alive in the playoffs wins in the round, that’s an automatic bid to the next round. The four winless drivers with the fewest points are eliminated after each round.
Drivers have earned playoff points with stage and race wins, as well as based on their regular-season finishes, which are added to their point total when the points are reset at the start of each round, which can help them advance.
At the championship race, the best finisher among the four finalists is the champion.
The 2025 playoff tracks:
Opening Round (Round of 16): Darlington (winner: Chase Briscoe), World Wide Technology Raceway (commonly called Gateway, a 1.25-mile oval) and Bristol (0.533-mile concrete oval). Teams raced at Darlington and Bristol earlier this year but haven’t raced at Gateway since June 2024.
Quarterfinal Round (Round of 12): New Hampshire (1.058-mile oval), Kansas (1.5-mile oval) and Charlotte road course (2.28-mile road course). The only repeat track in this round is Kansas, where teams raced in May.
Semifinal Round (Round of Eight): Las Vegas (1.5-mile oval), Talladega (2.5-mile high-banked superspeedway) and Martinsville (0.528-mile oval). Teams have raced at all three of these tracks this year.
Championship: Phoenix (1-mile oval). Teams last raced at Phoenix in March.
Here are my playoff rankings based on who has the best shot at winning the title:
1. Denny Hamlin
Joe Gibbs Racing: No. 11 Toyota
Position: Second, +43 on the cutoff
2025 playoff results: Darlington, Seventh
2024 Gateway finish: Second
2025 Bristol finish: Second
Hamlin limped into the playoffs with just one top 10 (a 10th) in his previous four starts. But he won the pole, placed third in the opening stage and finished seventh at Darlington. That’s a good start for him to feel comfortable about making a run for a championship.
Prediction: Championship Four
2. Kyle Larson
Hendrick Motorsports: No. 5 Chevrolet
Position: Third, +38 on the cutoff
2025 playoff results: Darlington, 19th
2024 Gateway finish: 10th
2025 Bristol finish: First
Larson finished 19th at Darlington after suffering damage during the final stage when he got into the back of another car on a restart. But the Hendrick driver moves up a spot in these rankings because he did show some speed (he admitted he felt average) as he qualified fifth and finished second and fourth in the stages.
Prediction: Championship Four
3. Ryan Blaney
Team Penske: No. 12 Ford
Position: Seventh, +22 on the cutoff
2025 playoff results: Darlington, 18th
2024 Gateway finish: 24th
2025 Bristol finish: Fifth
A spin during the second stage ruined a night for Blaney, which, if we’re being honest, wasn’t all that great anyway. He started 12th and finished 10th in the opening stage. The 2023 champion has had his share of adversity this year with seven races where he didn’t finish, so rebounding from a pedestrian 18th-place result shouldn’t be too difficult.
Prediction: Championship Four
4. William Byron
Hendrick Motorsports: No. 24 Chevrolet
Position: Sixth, +25 on the cutoff
2025 playoff results: Darlington, 21st
2024 Gateway finish: 15th
2025 Bristol finish: Sixth
The regular-season champion had a disappointing start to the playoffs, along with the rest of the Hendrick drivers. Byron led 243 laps in the Darlington race in April and looked nowhere near as fast on Sunday night. He also had a long pit stop during the race when he nearly left with a loose wheel and managed just one stage point on his way to a 21st-place finish. But this team has been strong throughout the year, so it is quite possible that Darlington was just a hiccup.
Prediction: Championship Four
5. Chase Briscoe
Joe Gibbs Racing: No. 19 Toyota
Position: First, Advanced with Darlington win
2025 playoff results: Darlington, First
2024 Gateway finish: 17th
2025 Bristol finish: Fourth
Briscoe dominated Darlington to advance to the quarterfinal round, as he won the Southern 500 for the second consecutive year and with two different teams. Last year was with Stewart-Haas Racing and this year, he did it with Joe Gibbs Racing. There might not be a hotter driver on the circuit than Briscoe, who has two wins and three second-place finishes in his last 11 starts.
Prediction: Eliminated in the semifinal round
6. Bubba Wallace
23XI Racing: No. 23 Toyota
Position: Fifth, +25 on the cutoff
2025 playoff results: Darlington, Sixth
2024 Gateway finish: 21st
2025 Bristol finish: 19th
Wallace did everything he had to do to earn some separation between him and the bubble, as he earned 10 stage points and finished sixth. That performance lifted the 23XI Racing driver from two points above the cutoff to 23 points. If he runs in the top 10 throughout the playoffs, he’ll have a shot to at least make it to the semifinal round.
Prediction: Eliminated in the semifinal round (changed from eliminated in the quarterfinal round)
7. Tyler Reddick
23XI Racing: No. 45 Toyota
Position: Fourth, +35 on the cutoff
2025 playoff results: Darlington, Second
2024 Gateway finish: Fourth
2025 Bristol finish: 18th
Reddick nearly won the race at Darlington, which would have been a huge boost after a winless regular season. His second-place finish vaulted him from one point below the cutline to 35 points above. That gives him some cushion and should be the boost the 23XI Racing driver needs to make it through if he has respectable finishes in the next two races.
Prediction: Eliminated in the quarterfinal round (change from eliminated in opening round)
8. Christopher Bell
Joe Gibbs Racing: No. 20 Toyota
Position: 10th, +11 on the cutoff
2025 playoff results: Darlington, 29th
2024 Gateway finish: Seventh
2025 Bristol finish: Eighth
Bell, like Larson, saw a potentially strong day (he started seventh) ruined by damage. Bell’s damage came from contact on pit road. The JGR driver finished two laps down in 29th and for a team struggling to find momentum going into the playoffs, this did not help.
Prediction: Eliminated in the semifinal round
9. Chase Elliott
Hendrick Motorsports: No. 9 Chevrolet
Position: 11th, +9 on the cutoff
2025 playoff results: Darlington, 17th
2024 Gateway finish: 13th
2025 Bristol finish: 15th
The playoffs opened in frustrating fashion for Elliott. He had entered the postseason knowing he needed to qualify well. What happens? He qualified 21st and finished 17th (albeit the best among the Hendrick quartet). If Elliott has shown anything in his career, it’s his ability to focus week to week. He’ll need to have a good finish at Gateway — where he has not finished well in his two starts — to feel good about making a deep playoff run.
Prediction: Eliminated in semifinal round
10. Joey Logano
Team Penske: No. 22 Ford
Position: 13th, -3 on the cutoff
2025 playoff results: Darlington, 20th
2024 Gateway finish: Fifth
2025 Bristol finish: 24th
Logano’s 20th-place finish was about where he deserved, as he didn’t have the speed throughout the night at Darlington. Good thing for Logano and his Penske team is that they are going to Gateway, where he won in 2022. If he doesn’t run well there, it could be an early playoff exit for the defending Cup champion.
Prediction: Eliminated in the quarterfinal round
11. Ross Chastain
Trackhouse Racing: No. 1 Chevrolet
Position: Eighth, +21 on the cutoff
2025 playoff results: Darlington, 11th
2024 Gateway finish: 12th
2025 Bristol finish: Seventh
An 11th-place finish at Darlington combined with 12 stage points allowed Chastain to go from one point above the cutoff to 21 points ahead. But the Trackhouse driver has been too inconsistent this year to make anyone feel like this is the start of a potential deep run into the playoffs. It is a sign, but questions remain.
Prediction: Eliminated in the quarterfinal round
12. Austin Cindric
Team Penske: No. 2 Ford
Position: Ninth, +12 on the cutoff
2025 playoff results: Darlington, 12th
2024 Gateway finish: First
2025 Bristol finish: 17th
Cindric finished 12th at Darlington and if he can come close to repeating what he did last year at winning Gateway, he should have a comfortable cushion by the time he gets to Bristol. The Team Penske driver finished the best among the Penske cars at Darlington.
Prediction: Eliminated in the quarterfinal round
13. Alex Bowman
Hendrick Motorsports: No. 48 Chevrolet
Position: 15th, -19 on the cutoff
2025 playoff results: Darlington, 31st
2024 Gateway finish: 28th
2025 Bristol finish: 37th
Bowman needed a strong Darlington run after slipping into the playoffs following a wreck in the regular-season finale at Daytona. He didn’t get that strong finish, suffering damage on a Lap 1 incident and then having a disastrous pit stop in the opening stage. But if Bowman has shown anything during his career, it’s been resiliency. The Hendrick driver is going to need that to advance.
Prediction: Eliminated in the opening round (change from eliminated in semifinal round)
14. Shane van Gisbergen
Trackhouse Racing: No. 88 Chevrolet
Position: 12th, +3 on the cutoff
2025 playoff results: Darlington, 32nd
2024 Gateway finish: N/A
2025 Bristol finish: 38th
A 32nd-place finish at Darlington didn’t drop van Gisbergen below the playoff cutline, but he is now firmly on the bubble with just a three-point cushion. He has never raced at Gateway in his life and Bristol was a rough experience earlier this year. The Trackhouse Racing driver will likely need some good fortune to advance.
Prediction: Eliminated in the first round
15. Austin Dillon
Richard Childress Racing: No. 3 Chevrolet
Position: 14th, -8 on the cutoff
2025 playoff results: Darlington, 23rd
2024 Gateway finish: Sixth
2025 Bristol finish: 10th
Dillon started ninth at Darlington, giving him hope that he could jump above the cutline. But the Richard Childress Racing driver finished 23rd and finds himself in a little bit of a hole. With Gateway having a little bit of similarity to Richmond, this weekend is pivotal for Dillon and any chance he has to advance out of the opening round.
Prediction: Eliminated in the first round
16. Josh Berry
Wood Brothers Racing: No. 21 Ford
Position: 16th, -19 on the cutoff
2025 playoff results: Darlington, 38th
2024 Gateway finish: 36th
2025 Bristol finish: 12th
An opening-lap accident at Darlington resulted in Berry spending more than 100 laps in the garage with his team working on the car. He was able to get back out on the track but with no attrition until late in the race, he didn’t move up any spots. He did earn an extra point for posting the fastest lap in the race after his return.
Prediction: Eliminated in the first round
Bob Pockrass covers NASCAR and INDYCAR for FOX Sports. He has spent decades covering motorsports, including over 30 Daytona 500s, with stints at ESPN, Sporting News, NASCAR Scene magazine and The (Daytona Beach) News-Journal. Follow him on Twitter @bobpockrass.
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