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Thankfully, last weekend is over.
My football picks went 1-3-1. Pushing Texas Tech -48 was downright cringeworthy, and maybe Illinois is really good?
Time will tell.
Remember, this isn’t the place for “locks” or five-team parlays. These are the games I’m betting with my own money.
Let’s go to work.
2025 Record: 3-6-1, -3.7 units
No. 18 USF @ No. 5 Miami (-17.5, O/U 56.5)
I think there’s pain in the forecast for USF. Outright wins over Boise State and Florida are damn impressive, but Miami is a different monster. The Canes offensive and defensive lines are yolked and USF is going to be up against that punishment for four quarters. Carson Beck should have plenty of time to operate in the pocket and I honestly believe Miami could name its score.
PICK: Miami (-17.5) to win by more than 17.5 points
Will Carson Beck help lead Miami to a win over USF in Week 3?
Minnesota (-2.5, O/U 42.5) @ California
Cal freshman quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (JKS) exploded onto the scene in his first start and beat my Oregon State side in the opener. I want to see him do it again. Minnesota’s defense is extremely physical and the guys up front will provide a much tougher test for the youngster. Assuming the Gophers dictate the pace and style, I like their chances.
PICK: Minnesota (-2.5) to win by more than 2.5 points
No. 4 Oregon (-27.5, O/U 49) @ Northwestern
Ah, the ol’ sleepy 11 a.m. kickoff time in Evanston. Gotta love it. Oregon scored 59 and 69 points in its first two games, yet this total is sitting at 49. That raises your eyebrows, doesn’t it? Look, Northwestern isn’t going to compete for a Big Ten title anytime soon, but the Kitties can get stops. We want punts over points and will be more than happy with a 31-13 final.
PICK: Under 49 points scored by both teams combined
Patriots @ Dolphins (-1.5, O/U 43.5)
I’m not stopping this Patriots fade. It always amused me how people thought Mike Vrabel would just swoop into a four-win organization and turn the Patriots into a playoff team overnight. The Dolphins certainly have issues of their own, but I have no issue backing a team that got embarrassed in the opener. Things usually aren’t as bad as they look in a Week 1 blowout.
PICK: Dolphins (-1.5) to win by more than 1.5 points
Tua Tagovailoa will try to lead the favored Dolphins over the Pats in Week 2.
Chargers (-3.5, O/U 47) @ Raiders
The Chargers beat Kansas City last week, so now the Chargers are the sexy team in the AFC West. That’s how it works in these streets. This Raiders offense looked very efficient with Geno Smith under center and Chip Kelly calling the plays. I would expect a better performance from Ashton Jeanty, too. Give me the home team plus the points on Monday night.
PICK: Raiders (+3.5) to lose by fewer than 3.5 points or win outright
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and the BetMGM Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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