Chart of the Week: Nationwide Truckload Index, Outbound Tender Rejection Index – USA SONAR: NTI.USA, OTRI.USA
The Nationwide Truckload Index (NTI) — a measure of dry van spot charges — rose 2% final week, climbing from $2.31 to $2.36 per mile. Whereas this enhance isn’t alarming by itself, the dearth of seasonal help and the muted response in truckload tender rejections — a measure of contract provider compliance — (OTRI) make it a extra important improvement for assessing the well being of the trucking sector.
The NTI has elevated greater than 2% in a single week seven instances to this point in 2025. Apart from an anomaly in February, tender rejection charges rose both earlier than or round every of these jumps in spot charges. Sometimes, non-seasonal will increase in spot charges are preceded by an increase in tender rejections, however there are events when the spot market reacts first and the contract market adjusts afterward.
Final week’s disruption seems to have been pushed by reviews of crackdowns on unlawful immigration concentrating on the trucking trade. A Serbian immigration lawyer reportedly suggested many international born operators to remain off the roads attributable to heightened dangers of detention.
In keeping with authorities information, about 18% of the driving force inhabitants have been international born as of 2021. Roughly 60% of these drivers are Latino from the Americas, with the remaining 40% primarily from Jap Europe and India. Many international drivers, particularly these with non permanent standing, are likely to work for smaller fleets or as owner-operators, as they typically reside within the U.S. solely part-time and ship earnings again house to help their households. Bigger fleets typically choose year-round availability and are additionally extra risk-averse attributable to language proficiency necessities and security issues.
For these causes, bigger carriers — which dominate contract freight and closely affect tender information — are much less affected by latest immigration crackdowns.
The spot market, then again, is dominated by smaller carriers and owner-operators. It’s additionally the place brokers have a tendency to seek out one of the best alternatives to develop or defend margins by working with lower-cost suppliers. This is the reason the spot market was rather more delicate to the latest enforcement exercise.
The spot market accounts for an estimated 15–20% of complete home freight quantity. With out help from the a lot bigger contracted section, it’s tough to say whether or not this represents a real inflection level or just a short-term disruption much like Roadcheck Week.
No matter how this occasion develops, it highlights a deeper subject within the truckload sector. Each spot and rejection charges have remained comparatively secure regardless of weakening freight demand.
