With Week 12 within the rearview mirror, we’re now, formally, two-thirds of the best way by means of the 2025 NFL season. Which suggests we’re actually heading into the stretch run, and that the image of what issues and what does not is beginning to turn into clearer with every passing week.
And one of many issues that’s changing into clearer is that we don’t know who’s going to win the Tremendous Bowl, or who the true contenders even are. There seem like a complete bunch of groups with a declare to contender standing, however all of them seemingly seem to have at the very least some flaws.
We’re right here at this time to speak about these flaws, and to find out what, if something, will maintain the contenders again from really hoisting the Lombardi Trophy come February.
Over at DraftKings, there are 11 groups with odds of +1500 or higher to win the Tremendous Bowl. The subsequent-closest workforce is at +4000, which is a reasonably vital hole; so we’ll name this group of 11 the true Tremendous Bowl contenders, after which we’ll study what may stop them from rising as Tremendous Bowl champs.
Los Angeles Rams: Accidents and particular groups
It was fairly troublesome to think about the potential Achilles’ heel for the Rams, who’ve been completely rolling since shedding two out of three video games following their 2-0 begin. The secondary would appear to be the main level of concern, however that group has been enjoying very well. Emmanuel Forbes and Cobie Durant look good. Quentin Lake is out however might come again. And the Kams (Curl and Kinchens) look stable at security. However the Rams are constructed round a 37-year-old quarterback with again points and a large receiver who spends extra time within the medical tent than anyone within the league, plus they have already got Rob Havenstein and Tyler Higbee on injured reserve. Plus, we won’t overlook that this has been one of many worst particular groups items within the league to date.
Philadelphia Eagles: Inconsistent offense
We have seen the Philadelphia protection hit a degree that few different items within the league can attain. They obtained tagged by the Cowboys on Sunday, however they have been contemporary off humiliating the Packers and Lions within the two video games earlier than that. We all know they’ve an extremely excessive ceiling. Does the offense nonetheless have that very same ceiling? The road hasn’t been pretty much as good as in earlier years. Saquon Barkley hasn’t been as explosive as he was a 12 months in the past. (No shock after his 450-plus touches.) And A.J. Brown has spent extra time complaining about his function than really getting the ball as a result of the passing sport has been out of sync seemingly all season. The Eagles have sufficient expertise that they have been capable of stack wins collectively anyway, however there are issues right here.
Kansas Metropolis Chiefs: May not really make playoffs
This one is awkward. Even after their seemingly season-saving win on Sunday over the Indianapolis Colts (extra on them later), the Chiefs are nonetheless simply 6-5 on the season. They’re one sport out of the wild card, and they’re a mixed 0-3 towards the three groups that presently occupy the wild card spots. (The Chargers, Jaguars and Payments.) They’ve an opportunity to get even with L.A. in a number of weeks’ time and probably use that sport as a springboard down the stretch, nevertheless it’s not just like the schedule is simple the remainder of the best way. The Chiefs play the Cowboys, Texans, Chargers, Titans, Broncos and Raiders following that Cowboys sport. There are two simple wins in there, however 4 probably powerful video games, too. They can not afford to lose greater than possibly two video games.
Seattle Seahawks: Taking part in from behind
We have actually solely seen one sport to date this season the place the Seahawks did not play in a impartial or constructive script for a lot of the sport, and it did not go properly. Sam Darnold in all probability sees Rams defensive coordinator Chris Shula in his sleep, given what’s occurred the final two occasions Darnold performed towards his unit. Seattle likes to have the ability to preserve cross quantity down and particularly to keep away from straight dropback passes when the protection is aware of the cross is coming. That is how the workforce is constructed. In case you get a lead on the Seahawks, we have seen them turn into a completely totally different offense. After all, the Seattle protection makes getting that lead within the first place very troublesome. However in the event you can, then it turns into a a lot totally different sport from there on out.
Indianapolis Colts: Quarterback
Daniel Jones by means of the primary eight video games of the 12 months: 71.2% completion charge, 8.5 yards per try, 13 touchdowns, three interceptions, 9 sacks taken. Jones during the last three weeks: 64.5% completion charge, 7.3 yards per try, 4 touchdowns, 4 interceptions, 12 sacks taken. Shane Steichen has accomplished a wonderful job scheming Jones into place for achievement all through this season, however he’s nonetheless a quarterback who must be schemed into place for achievement; he isn’t going to raise the gamers round him by means of his personal excellence. In reality, it is the opposite manner round. The offensive line and skill-position gamers have to carry Jones. It is actually laborious to win that manner within the playoffs, regardless of how good these different gamers are.
Detroit Lions: Taking part in from behind, out of doors video games
Just like the Seahawks, the Lions are usually not constructed to play from behind. No one is, actually, however their particular model of offense, with all of the under-center play-action and misdirection at occasions appears like it may possibly crumble beneath the load of getting to turn into a straight dropback operation when down by a number of scores within the second half. Towards the Giants, you may win. However towards actual groups? The Lions additionally seemingly will not benefit from home-field benefit for a lot of the playoffs, even when they win the NFC North (they usually’re nonetheless a sport behind). The offense appears to be like a lot totally different outdoor than it does on the quick monitor of Ford Subject or towards different domed opponents, so having to go exterior for a playoff sport in, say, Philly, might show troublesome.
Denver Broncos: Inconsistent offense
Just like the Eagles, the Broncos have one of many NFL’s finest defenses — a unit that may attain the next ceiling than nearly any within the league. That is very true when Denver has Patrick Surtain II wholesome in order that the secondary can complement the cross rush. However good lord, does the offense undergo stretches the place it simply appears to be like completely inept, even in video games that the Broncos finally win. It at all times looks as if they’ve to tug a rabbit out of their collective hats to seek out sufficient offense to come back away with a victory. To their credit score, they’ve really accomplished that very often to date this season, with a number of fourth-quarter comebacks to their identify. However that is a very laborious method to dwell, particularly when you do not have the benefit at quarterback.
Buffalo Payments: Protection, particularly vs. the run
The Payments seemingly simply cannot cease offenses from working the ball down their throats. Buffalo has given up 100-plus speeding yards in 9 of 11 video games and 180-plus speeding yards in 5 of them. They have not been fairly as statistically susceptible towards the cross, however that is at the very least partially as a result of opponents are clocking them to the tune of 5.3 yards per carry and a league-high 17 touchdowns on the bottom. Why danger throwing the ball any greater than that you must? The Payments are and have been coping with harm points alongside the defensive entrance, and that continues to be a priority going ahead, as a result of it is not like they’re abruptly going to get a ton of reinforcements that flip them into an elite and even good unit towards the run.
Baltimore Ravens: Lamar Jackson’s hamstring
Jackson is again on the sphere, however he has not seemed something remotely like himself over the 4 weeks since he returned from the hamstring pressure that stored him for Weeks 5 by means of 8. In 4 video games, Jackson has accomplished 62% of his passes at 7.3 yards per try, with 5 touchdowns towards two interceptions. He is taken 9 sacks. However he has run simply 25 occasions for under 71 yards. That isn’t the Lamar Jackson we all know, people. It is simply not. He is wholesome sufficient to play and so we’ve got to evaluate him on that, but when he’ll appear like this for the remainder of the 12 months, the Ravens are usually not going far within the playoffs even when they do handle to win the AFC North. They want his well being to take a major step ahead in order that he can do the issues he does finest.
New England Patriots: Offensive line
The group up entrance for the Pats was already sort of hanging on by a risk, even earlier than this previous Sunday. Drake Maye has been sacked greater than any quarterback within the NFL not named Cam Ward, and he is been pressured on practically 39% of his dropbacks. Now, the complete left aspect of the offensive line may be out for some time after each Will Campbell and Jared Wilson obtained damage towards the Bengals. That must also damage the Pats within the run sport, the place they’re already averaging the fifth-fewest yards earlier than contact per rush of any workforce within the league, per TruMedia. Maye is unbelievable however he cannot do all the things by himself. He and the backs may very well be beneath siege for a number of weeks whereas the road will get wholesome, and even when it does, that may not be sufficient.
Inexperienced Bay Packers: Accidents on offense
Inexperienced Bay has additionally tended to play all the way down to the extent of its competitors this 12 months, in order that was in consideration for its potential Achilles’ heel right here, however we’ve got to go along with this as an alternative. The Packers appear like a completely totally different offense with out star tight finish Tucker Kraft, who was their most explosive weapon within the passing sport. Plus, Josh Jacobs has been coping with a number of accidents all through this season and easily has not seemed the identical as he did throughout his first 12 months with the workforce. The offensive line has been shuffling because of accidents all 12 months lengthy. And Jayden Reed nonetheless is not again from injured reserve. Reed’s return ought to assist, every time it occurs, however there may be an excessive amount of flawed elsewhere for the Packers to beat.
