March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) on Friday closed down -0.12 (-0.78%). March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) on Wednesday closed up +3.30 (+0.76%), and the London market on Friday remained closed as a part of the Christmas vacation.
NY sugar costs on Friday bumped into some lengthy liquidation stress after the rally seen earlier this week. Sugar costs rallied earlier this week on Tuesday’s forecast by consulting agency Safras & Mercado that Brazil’s sugar manufacturing in 2026/27 will fall -3.91% to 41.8 MMT from 43.5 MMT anticipated in 2025/26. The agency expects Brazil’s exports in 2026/27 to fall -11% y/y to 30 MMT.
Final Thursday, sugar costs fell to 5-week lows amid prospects of upper sugar exports from India, after India’s meals secretary mentioned the federal government might allow further sugar exports to cut back a home provide glut. Final month, India’s meals ministry mentioned it might enable mills to export 1.5 MMT of sugar within the 2025/26 season. India launched a quota system for sugar exports in 2022/23 after late rain decreased manufacturing and restricted home provides.
Indicators of a bigger sugar crop in India, the world’s second-largest producer, are undercutting costs after the India Sugar Mill Affiliation (ISMA) on November 11 raised its 2025/26 India sugar manufacturing estimate to 31 MMT from an earlier forecast of 30 MMT, up +18.8% y/y. The ISMA additionally reduce its estimate for sugar used for ethanol manufacturing in India to three.4 MMT from a July forecast of 5 MMT, which can enable India to spice up its sugar exports. In the meantime, the India Sugar Mill Affiliation (ISMA) reported on December 15 that Indian 2025-26 sugar manufacturing from October 1 to December 15 jumped +28% y/y to 7.83 MMT.
The outlook for file sugar output in Brazil can be bearish for costs. Conab, Brazil’s crop forecasting company, on November 4 raised its Brazil 2025/26 sugar manufacturing estimate to 45 MMT from a earlier forecast of 44.5 MMT. Unica reported on December 16 that Brazil’s cumulative 2025-26 Heart-South sugar output by way of November rose by +1.1% y/y to 39.904 MMT. Additionally, the ratio of cane crushed for sugar rose to 51.12% in 2025/36 from 48.34% in 2024/25.
