Aaron Zelin, a senior fellow on the Washington Institute for Close to East Coverage, analyzes the U.S. strike on ISIS targets in Nigeria and the message it sends.
TAMARA KEITH, HOST:
On Christmas Day, the U.S. launched what President Trump known as a robust and lethal strike towards ISIS. The assault focused area in northern Nigeria the place President Trump mentioned that ISIS has been, quote, “viciously killing primarily harmless Christians at ranges not seen for a few years.” Becoming a member of us now could be Aaron Zelin, a senior fellow on the Washington Institute for Close to East Coverage. He additionally directs the Islamic State Worldwide Exercise Map Mission. Welcome to this system.
AARON ZELIN: Thanks for having me.
KEITH: Let’s zero in on this area in northwest Nigeria the place the U.S. strikes occurred. Does ISIS, in reality, management that space, or is it primarily different teams?
ZELIN: So far as we all know, the Islamic State doesn’t management any territory in northwest Nigeria. It is extra of a transient space between that space of the nation and different conflicts in neighboring nations like Niger and Mali. Alternatively, in northeast Nigeria, the Islamic State does management territory there.
KEITH: I wish to go to a different facet of this story. President Trump first directed consideration to Nigeria again in November with a video posted on social media.
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PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: Christianity is dealing with an existential menace in Nigeria. Hundreds and 1000’s of Christians are being killed. Radical Islamists are accountable for this mass slaughter.
KEITH: So I do wish to ask you about that narrative that Christians are the primary targets. Is that an correct description of what is taking place on the bottom in Nigeria?
ZELIN: There’s undoubtedly some assaults by the Islamic State towards Christians, however in addition they are attacking Muslims, as properly, that do not imagine of their extremist world view. Plus, a lot of the Christian inhabitants in Nigeria is extra within the central and southern components of the nation than as an alternative of the north, whereas the north is majority Muslim. And so, whereas it’s true that the Islamic State has focused Christians, folks speaking a few genocide from a authorized definition standpoint, it does not maintain up.
KEITH: So is the main focus then on Christianity extra about home politics right here within the U.S.? It definitely has elevated what’s taking place in Nigeria to the purpose the place Nicki Minaj was speaking about it just lately.
ZELIN: Yeah, there’s undoubtedly a element of this associated to home politics than it being particular to Nigeria. In fact, we should not underestimate the truth that the Islamic State has focused Christians, however they’ve additionally focused Muslims, too. However we have seen this, broadly talking, associated to different points, not simply in Nigeria, as properly, the place folks have frightened in regards to the destiny of Christians in different nations, too, comparable to Syria – has grow to be an enormous, you recognize, home political debate, as properly.
KEITH: Protection Secretary Pete Hegseth mentioned that these strikes have been finished with assist and cooperation from Nigeria, and he mentioned that there could be extra to come back. What does the Nigerian authorities acquire from cooperating with the U.S. on this?
ZELIN: For the Nigerian authorities, this may very well be entry to extra weapons from the U.S., in addition to assist from the U.S. associated to the army struggle towards the Islamic State, in addition to, you recognize, from a home perspective, different enemies that they may have that they may wish to go after. We have seen this in lots of different contexts in different nations. And it is necessary to do not forget that the difficulty of the Islamic State isn’t just in Nigeria, nevertheless it’s this cross-border concern in West Africa and the Sahel typically. And lots of the surrounding nations of Nigeria are literally allied with Russia now, preventing towards the Islamic State in addition to al-Qaida. And so there is not cross-border coordination a lot at this level.
KEITH: How does this slot in with the Trump administration’s international coverage doctrine or method? And the way does this evaluate with how previous presidents have approached this area?
ZELIN: Up to now, a lot of what the U.S. did was supporting the native governments within the struggle as an alternative of instantly doing it themselves. In some ways, it highlights how for the Trump administration, not solely with this however the entire so-called peace agreements that he is finished for the reason that starting of the yr, that they are very flashy however the query is all the time about follow-up and whether or not there’s long-term sustainability to those insurance policies.
KEITH: What are you anticipating subsequent yr?
ZELIN: I imply, going into 2026, one of many traits we have seen with the Islamic State specifically is that it is continued to get stronger and stronger in components of Africa, the place its authentic base in Iraq and Syria have gotten weaker because it misplaced territory in 2019. And so zeroing in on locations like Nigeria, Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, the area of the Sahel and West Africa, typically, associated to the jihadi motion, will doubtless take priority over different counterterrorism points within the context of the jihadi motion.
KEITH: Aaron Zelin, a senior fellow on the Washington Institute for Close to East Coverage, talking with us about latest U.S. army strikes in northwest Nigeria. Thanks for becoming a member of us.
ZELIN: Thanks for having me.
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