Fantasy Baseball Offseason Tracker: High Strikes

With the vacations behind us, the new range is burning vibrant once more. The place are you able to flip for steering amid this dizzying whirlwind?

Proper right here is the place. Chris Towers and I shall be making the Offseason Tracker our house base for the subsequent few weeks, churning out content material because the information warrants. Right here, you will get a breakdown of all of the strikes that matter for Fantasy Baseball with out all of the fluff. (OK, perhaps a bit of fluff.)

Bookmark it. Learn it. Stay by it.

Alex Bregman indicators with Cubs

To date in his profession, Bregman has had the great fortune of taking part in in two of essentially the most opportune venues for pull-side right-handed energy: Daikin Park and Fenway Park. Now, he’ll get a style of the alternative. The impression that Wrigley Discipline might have on his house run output is troublesome to determine via metrics like xHR, which struggles to account for the venue’s ever-windy circumstances and strange define, however Isaac Paredes serves as a helpful take a look at case. If Paredes produces very similar to Bregman in Houston, what are the possibilities Bregman will produce very similar to Paredes in Chicago? I break it down right here. –Scott White

Edward Cabrera traded to Cubs

The rotation impression right here is obvious: With Justin Steele recovering from Tommy John surgical procedure, the Cubs fairly desperately wanted one other arm for the center a part of their rotation, and Cabrera was one of the vital thrilling available on the market. Armed with fastballs that flirt with triple digits and a changeup with the rate of the common pitcher’s fastball, Cabrera has at all times had en attractive arm, however in 2025, he made actual modifications to begin to dwell as much as the hype. For extra on these and what the Marlins bought again on this deal, try my full-length article. –Chris Towers

Kazuma Okamoto indicators with Blue Jays

Okamoto ended up signing for 4 years, $60 million with the Blue Jays, and all of that sounds proper. It is in step with expectations for Okamoto’s contract coming into the offseason – whereas Munetaka Murakami and Tatsuya Imai’s costs ended up effectively wanting expectations – and Okamoto’s talent set suits in completely with a acutely aware choice the Blue Jays have made lately to focus on hitters who could make loads of contact with out sacrificing energy. Okamoto has been top-of-the-line hitters in Japan lately and is coming off a large season the place he was arguably the finest hitter, placing up a 210 wRC with 15 homers in 69 video games. He’ll probably see his strikeout fee, which ranged round 14-17% in Japan, rise nearer to league common within the majors, and he does not have significantly better than above-average uncooked energy, however Okamoto does a very good job of driving the ball to the pull aspect within the air, serving to him get essentially the most out of his bodily instruments. I feel Okamoto is unlikely to be a famous person within the majors, however he is becoming a member of a very good lineup and positively has top-10 upside at third base in a late-career Nolan Arenado (earlier than he utterly collapsed) form of approach. He is value drafting round two hundredth total or so in most drafts as a nook infielder with some upside. —Chris Towers

Tatsuya Imai indicators with Astros

2025 NPB Stats: 10-5, 1.92 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 163.2 INN, 45 BB, 178 Okay

Of the a number of gamers anticipated to signal out of East Asia this offseason, Imai was regarded as the perfect. He is within the prime of his profession at age 27, was the hardest-throwing beginning pitcher in Japan this previous season (based on Baseball America) and, effectively, you may see the numbers for your self. However numbers will be deceptive, notably for pitchers throughout what’s been a lifeless ball period for the Japanese league. What does it say that Imai’s final deal — three years for a most of $63 million — is such a far cry from the six-year, $150 million provide that a number of shops had been projecting?

Might be that Imai is betting on an even bigger rating as soon as he proves himself. His deal consists of opt-outs after each the primary and second yr. Might be, nevertheless, that his oddball profile makes for a troublesome analysis. Sure, he throws exhausting, along with his fastball sitting at about 96 mph and peaking at 99, however what’s extra notable is his launch top. It might rank among the many lowest within the sport, owing each to his close to sidearm supply and smallish 5-foot-11 construct. In the meantime, his slider, which is meant to be his finest pitch, breaks to his arm aspect, shifting in the wrong way of most each different slider, which Lance Brozdowski has identified would make it much less interesting to stuff fashions.

However wouldn’t it make it simpler in truth? I am of the opinion that bizarre is sweet for pitchers. The objective is to misdirect hitters, in any case, and familiarity works in opposition to that objective. If Imai’s success trusted deception alone, I would have larger doubts, however he has high quality stuff and a minimum of fairly good command. The contract is a bit of underwhelming, however I am nonetheless prone to rank him amongst my high 45 beginning pitchers for 2026. –Scott White

Pete Fairbanks indicators with Marlins

A day after asserting they’d be with out Ronny Henriquez for the 2026 season, the Marlins agreed to a one-year, $13 million take care of Fairbanks. It is a modest contract for a pitcher with ample closing expertise, which speaks to issues in regards to the 32-year-old’s declining efficiency the previous two years. He is continued to deal with the ninth inning capably, however he is gone from putting out about 12 batters per 9 innings to lower than 9 per 9, with a corresponding drop in velocity. The Rays, who after all know him finest, really turned down an $11 million choice for him. Nonetheless, he’ll enter 2026 as the favourite to shut for the Marlins, who had been by no means settled in that position final yr. Perhaps that is supervisor Clayton McCullough’s philosophy, which is all of the extra cause to be cautious about drafting Fairbanks subsequent yr, besides, he is value concentrating on as a low-end RP2. –Scott White

Willson Contreras traded to Purple Sox

Nicely, this one’s form of stunning. The Purple Sox in all probability could not go into this season counting on Triston Casas once more, and now it isn’t clear if Casas will even be on the Purple Sox in 2026. Contreras transitioned to first base in 2025 and continued to be a strong middle-of-the-order bat, hitting 20 homers with a .257/.344/.447 line. Given the cash due over the ultimate two seasons of his contract (which incorporates an choice for 2028), the Purple Sox aren’t prone to think about Contreras a platoon bat with Casas, so I’d count on a commerce for Casas, who can have some very late-round enchantment in Fantasy if he finds an on a regular basis job. As for Contreras, his worth takes a giant hit as he’s solely 1B eligible for 2026, however he is a strong sufficient nook infield choice in Fantasy, particularly with a pleasant little park improve on the best way. 

As for the Cardinals aspect of this, I’m wondering if this is likely to be a option to unlock on a regular basis at bats for Ivan Herrera, who has hit like a primary baseman over the previous couple of seasons whereas taking part in catcher … like a primary baseman. He’s recovering from elbow surgical procedure and is anticipated to play catcher in 2026 after largely being restricted to DH duties final season, however perhaps they might give him just a few alternatives behind the plate per week whereas primarily holding down first base and DH. Herrera will not open 2026 with catcher eligibility, however he has important upside if he will get there and performs frequently coming off a .284/.373/.464 line (with even higher underlying numbers). 

The Cardinals additionally added to their rotation choices with Hunter Dobbins coming again their approach, together with as-yet-unnamed pitching prospects. Dobbins had a 4.13 ERA and three.99 xERA final season with the Purple Sox, and there is likely to be room to unlock some swing-and-miss upside with some tweaks to his arsenal. However he is in all probability simply an end-of-rotation choice for the Cardinals and somebody Fantasy gamers can view as strictly a streamer for 2026. —Chris Towers

Munetaka Murakami indicators with the White Sox

It is a surprisingly small contract for one of many greatest names available on the market. I wrote about that and extra right here:

“MLB groups aren’t infallible, and in relation to a participant making the transition from NPB to the majors, there’s an inherent uncertainty that makes it tougher to say with confidence whether or not it will find yourself being a very good deal or not. However there aren’t any scarcity of groups with the necessity for a possible 30-plus energy hitter in the midst of the lineup, and the truth that Murakami ended up with the same contract to those Jurickson Profar and Tyler O’Neill signed final season (whereas being considerably older and with fairly mediocre MLB observe information) stands out as a fairly large purple flag, one Fantasy participant should not simply ignore. 

I am not going to completely bury him in my rankings however provided that the White Sox (and the opposite 29 groups, frankly) know a complete lot extra about Murakami than we do, I’m very a lot inclined to view him with a skeptical eye. We’ll get to the scouting report for Murakami shortly, however the lengthy and wanting it’s there are important contact questions along with his swing that make his chance of dwelling as much as the loftiest expectations fairly unlikely. I used to be prepared to present him the good thing about the doubt as a prospect if he signed for giant cash, however with the small print in now, it looks like MLB groups simply do not have loads of religion in his swing. If MLB groups are telling us they do not have rather more religion in him than they do in Polanco, we must always in all probability hear.”  –Chris Towers

Shane Baz traded to the Orioles

I wrote about Baz’s transfer to Baltimore right here:

“The Orioles are betting they will do one thing related right here with Baz coming into his age-27 season. And there are clearly instruments to work with right here when you look previous the ugly 4.78 ERA Baz put up in 2025. His xERA was 3.85, which suggests there was loads of poor luck in Baz’s outcomes. He has some strikeout upside and limits harm on contact effectively sufficient (.359 xwOBA on contact in 2025, .355 for his profession; .368 is league common), however has largely struggled with consistency.

And I feel the Rays strategy might have one thing to do with that. Many pitchers have talked about how the Rays philosophy can typically be boiled all the way down to, “Throw your finest pitches as typically as attainable, intention for the center of the zone‘, and let your stuff do the remainder.” That’s recommendation that has labored out effectively for a lot of pitchers (most notably Tyler Glasnow), however I feel it has been holding Baz again. He has great things, however does not essentially miss as many bats within the strike zone as you’ll count on, posting a roughly common in-zone contact fee allowed. That is an issue when Baz throws 53% of his pitches within the zone, in comparison with the league common of roughly 48%. These pitches within the zone will assist you keep away from walks, after all, nevertheless it’s exhausting to persistently miss bats that approach, and persistently lacking bats has been a giant concern for Baz.” — Chris Towers

Brandon Lowe traded to the Rays

I wrote about Lowe’s slot in Pittsburgh right here:

“It’s a park downgrade for Lowe, although that won’t matter as a lot as you assume –  he hit simply .240/.279/.456 at George M. Steinbrenner Discipline final season, whereas Tropicana Discipline (the place Lowe performed each season previous to final) is definitely a worse park for left-handed hitters than PNC Park. PNC is a harder park for righties and will play fairly truthful for Lowe, so your expectations for him should not change an excessive amount of primarily based on this deal.

Which suggests Lowe ought to stay top-of-the-line values on the second base place for Fantasy but once more. Regardless of coming off a bounce-back season, Lowe’s ADP in early NFBC drafts is simply 174.1. He is being held again by issues about his well being, which is truthful, however he simply proved final season he can provide us one thing near a full season, and there simply aren’t many gamers who can provide you as huge an edge on the competitors as Lowe does with homers relative to different second basemen.” — Chris Towers

Michael King indicators with Padres

The theme of staying put this offseason continues for an additional notable free agent, and the phrases are fairly fascinating. In all, the deal could possibly be value $75 million over three years, however King might select to decide out after the primary or second yr, incomes the least amount of cash upfront. That is the type of deal a participant indicators when he thinks he will not get he is value and must resuscitate his worth, and to be truthful, he did miss a lot of 2025 with nerve impingement in his shoulder. However he did have his regular velocity when he returned in September, and each contender might use a pitcher like him.

It is cause to marvel if there are lingering doubts about King’s ineffectiveness in September. He did not look as sharp although the rate checked out. In all, his transfer again into the beginning rotation in 2024 has been a smashing success, and he has top-25 upside at beginning pitcher. Provided that the place is so deep, although, and he clearly has one thing to show nonetheless, he’ll come nearer to being the fiftieth beginning pitcher chosen. –Scott White

Ha-seong Kim indicators with Braves

Kim turned down his $16 million choice with the Braves earlier this offseason however returns for an addition $4 million on a one-year. It is a good slot in that the Braves badly want a shortstop with some offensive potential and Kim badly wants to revive his worth after a season wrecked by accidents. He ought to play on daily basis simply as he did in September when the Braves claimed him off waivers from the Rays.

Whether or not he’ll carry out is one other matter. His 2025 was cut up evenly with 24 video games for the Rays and 24 for the Braves, and he did carry out higher as soon as he was again to taking part in frequently with the latter. However he additionally had zero steals with the latter and is not of a lot Fantasy curiosity with out these, notably since he is prone to bat low within the lineup. A 12-homer, 25-steal season is what you may moderately hope for, with 15 and 30 being his absolute upside, however he is far sufficient faraway from these form of numbers that you need to strategy him with skepticism. He is a late-round choose in leagues that require a 3rd center infielder (equivalent to customary Rotisserie). –Scott White

Adolis Garcia indicators with Phillies

Garcia, 32, has struggled with points in each knees and hasn’t been an impression hitter since 2023. The Phillies are betting they will unlock one thing and a minimum of squeeze a gentle improve from what Nick Castellanos has given them the previous few seasons. That is not a foul guess on a one-year, $10 million contract. It is an improve in supporting forged and residential park, and that might present a bit of increase to Garcia’s worth. However I am not anticipating a George Springer-esque resurgence after two years of an OPS beneath .700 and declining underlying metrics. Perhaps you may get 20 homers and 10 steals out of him as a late-round flier. –Chris Towers

Josh Bell indicators with Twins

Bell’s profession has been outlined by inconsistency, so a bounce-back in 2025 is not out of the query. That is very true given his underlying metrics in 2025, which had been the perfect we have seen from him since 2021, with a .358 xwOBA to go together with his finest strikeout fee in three years. It did not present up within the field rating till the second half of the season, when Bell hit .267/.353/.489. It isn’t unreasonable to assume there is a related ceiling in right here for 2026, although you actually should not draft Bell anticipating that. As a late-round flier for energy, you are able to do worse, nevertheless. –Chris Towers

Merrill Kelly indicators with Diamondbacks

Petty easy, this one. Other than his two months with the Rangers on the finish of 2025, our solely recollection of Kelly is with the Diamondbacks, so we all know precisely what to anticipate. The one query could be if he is starting to age out at 37, seeing as he was extra hittable throughout his 10 begins with the Rangers. No group would have a greater learn on him than the Diamondbacks, although, and so they’re prepared to pay him $20 million every of the subsequent two years. His velocity and ERA estimators have held regular, so I feel you may draft him with confidence as an innings-eating rotation stabilizer within the fifth or sixth starter vary. You will in all probability find yourself utilizing him greater than you count on to. –Scott White

Isaac Collins traded to Royals

For a minute there, Collins was the new factor in Fantasy, slashing .338/.425/.544 over a two-month stretch from June 12 via Aug. 11. And whereas he slashed solely .182/.303/.293 thereafter, slipping into extra of a part-time position, he nonetheless ended up reaching base at a .368 clip as a rookie. That is probably what attracted the Royals to Collins, and with them, the switch-hitter is extra prone to play on daily basis.

My concern, although, is that the midseason sizzling stretch inflated his stat line past what’s really cheap and that the season merely ended earlier than the correction could possibly be absolutely utilized. He wasn’t a extremely regarded prospect, does not hit the ball with a lot authority, and does not make contact at an unusually excessive fee. He is good at taking walks, as his minor league historical past additionally exhibits, however main league pitchers will put a cease to that if the bat is not impactful sufficient. They’re higher at controlling the place the ball goes and can merely pound the strike zone. Perhaps Collins will excel with the Royals and provides them their very own model of Sal Frelick. It is extra attainable with them than with the Brewers. However that is modest upside for a participant with such a questionable profile, making him not value contemplating outdoors of five-outfielder leagues. –Scott White

Dustin Might indicators with Cardinals

Not a foul gamble for the Cardinals when you think about that Might was a prized commodity as not too long ago as a yr in the past. He was getting back from flexor tendon surgical procedure in addition to a Tommy John revision, and clearly, issues did not end up so effectively. The Dodgers determined to chop bait, delivery him to the Purple Sox for a few minor leaguers, nevertheless it did not enhance his circumstances in any respect. If nothing else, the Cardinals can present him with alternative given the sorry state of their beginning rotation. He is misplaced about 2 mph from all three variations of his fastball (four-seamer, two-seamer and cutter), however he nonetheless will get depraved horizontal motion on a number of of his pitches. He is an excessive amount of of a venture to draft in standard-size leagues, but when he begins getting some buzz this spring, that might change. –Scott White

It wasn’t even every week in the past that I mentioned Kyle Finnegan could be the favourite for saves in Detroit after signing a two-year, $19 million deal. I take all of it again. Jansen, the lively saves chief and fourth on the all-time listing with 476, turns into essentially the most confirmed nearer supervisor A.J. Hinch has ever had.

Hinch is notoriously noncommittal along with his ninth-inning selections, which is why the Finnegan endorsement was a guarded one, however the final time he had a more in-depth extensively thought-about to be top-of-the-line within the sport, Roberto Osuna in 2019, he bought him 38 saves. Jansen presumably would not go to a crew that did not promise him the nearer position. The final time he bought fewer than 25 saves in a season (2020 excluded) was 2011. It is true he isn’t as dominant as he as soon as was, however he continues to get the job carried out at 38 and has a very good likelihood for 30-plus saves on an anticipated contender. You need to goal him among the many high 15 relievers in leagues that reward saves. –Scott White

Out with Pete Alonso. In with … Jorge Polanco? Sure, the Mets are going the thrifty route to interchange their All-Star first baseman, signing a longtime second baseman with the intention of transitioning him there. I say it is the thrifty route, however actually it is extra just like the short-term route, seeing as Polanco is slated to make $40 million over two years.

He earned that pay enhance with a resurgent season in Seattle, his finest in 4 years. He had patellar tendon surgical procedure previous to the season, a situation he had been managing for years, and the underlying information backs up the resurgence, specifically via improved exit velocities a enormously improved strikeout fee. In idea, he will a greater venue, however his xHR by ballpark is about the identical in New York and Seattle over the previous few years. Principally, Polanco’s worth is tied to his second base eligibility, given that it is the weakest infield place, and this transfer places him within the dialog for high 10 there. –Scott White 

Ken Rosenthal already answered your query: The Braves nonetheless count on to make use of Raisel Iglesias as their nearer in 2026. The deal can pay Suarez $13 million in 2026, with $16 million due in every of 2027 and 2028; with Iglesias solely below contract for yet one more yr after re-signing earlier this offseason, the plan right here appears fairly clear. For 2026, Suarez is an overqualified setup man; in 2027, he ought to enter because the odds-on favourite to shut. After all, he would possibly find yourself closing in 2026 anyway, as Iglesias misplaced the texture for his slider in 2025 and subsequently misplaced his job (earlier than finally successful it again). Profitable it again from Suarez, who has a 2.87 ERA and 76 saves over the previous two seasons, is likely to be a harder activity. Iglesias stays within the top-12 nearer dialogue for 2026 drafts, however he is bought to be seen as a riskier choose now than he was earlier than the Suarez signing. –Chris Towers

Pete Alonso indicators with Orioles

After he sat on the free agent market till February final offseason, Pete Alonso discovered his house a lot earlier this time round. And, for the primary time in his skilled profession, he will not be with the Mets, as he landed with the Orioles Wednesday on a five-year deal that can make him one of many highest-paid first basemen in MLB historical past. It is a transfer that solutions some questions for the Orioles lineup in 2026 and raises a lot extra for the Mets. For extra, try out my full-length article. –Chris Towers

This is yet one more free agent who examined the free agent market and determined the grass wasn’t greener, on this case re-upping with the Tigers on a two-year, $19 million deal. Finnegan is probably not of the identical stature as Kyle Schwarber, who additionally selected to remain put Tuesday, however he could possibly be of use in Fantasy if he finally ends up claiming the nearer position for the Tigers. (Replace: He probably will not with the following signing of Kenley Jansen.)

He kind of cut up the position with Will Vest after coming over from the Nationals in a deadline deal, however he has extra expertise in it and have become a significantly better pitcher with the Tigers, placing collectively a 1.50 ERA, 0.72 WHIP and 11.5 Okay/9 in 16 appearances. Principally, that they had him throw his splitter twice as typically, and clearly, they assume these positive aspects will stick. –Scott White

Kyle Schwarber returning to the Phillies is a giant deal for real-life baseball. Schwarber is likely one of the 15 or so finest hitters in baseball (and the variety of higher energy hitters is a fair shorter listing), however he is additionally been an integral a part of the Phillies’ clubhouse throughout their latest run of contending, and so they had been combating off quite a few different contenders and would-be contenders for Schwarber’s companies. That is an inventory that included sudden names just like the Reds and Pirates, in addition to the Orioles, Mets, and others who had been all in on Schwarber to the tune of a minimum of $100 million. His touchdown spot might have essentially reshaped the look of any one in all a few half-dozen groups.

For Fantasy, although, this deal does not actually matter all that a lot. We’ll at all times take the established order reigning when that entails an elite hitter staying in a very good lineup, and it is in all probability the perfect likelihood Schwarber has to recreate his unbelievable 2025 season. However it additionally does not – or should not – change how anybody views him for Fantasy. It is the established order, in any case.

I’ll say this: I feel Schwarber’s value in drafts might be a minimum of a bit of bit unreasonable. After sporting an ADP close to seventieth coming into 2025, he is sitting at 24.5 in early NFBC drafts to this point. He was value that in 2025, however he additionally hit 18 extra homers than he had in 2024 and 9 greater than some other season in his profession, so anticipating a repeat might be asking rather a lot. He’ll hit 40 or so with elite run manufacturing numbers, however he hasn’t hit higher than .248 since 2021 (when he was shielded from lots of the hardest lefties on the schedule in a approach he not is) and he’s a Util/DH-only participant for Fantasy. None of that must be thought-about a deal breaker, however it might probably create some robust team-building problems when it prices a second-round choose. –Chris Towers

Edwin Diaz indicators with Dodgers

Edwin Diaz becoming a member of the Dodgers is one other transfer that feels extra momentous in actual life than in Fantasy. The Dodgers’ bullpen was their greatest weak spot in 2025 and now they’ve signed the perfect nearer available on the market. After all they did. However Diaz was going to be a more in-depth irrespective of the place he signed, and if something, signing with a crew that gave out an enormous contract to a different shut final offseason and has different pitchers with closing expertise means there is likely to be a bit extra threat in drafting Diaz than there was earlier than. He’ll in all probability stay a dominant power and safe 35-plus saves for the Dodgers, however he is risky sufficient that it isn’t not possible to foresee a world by which he loses this job. Bear in mind, it occurred to him for a stretch in 2024. 

Tanner Scott is clearly undraftable in most leagues now, whereas Devin Williams appears safe a top-12 nearer and a high-profile bounce-back candidate if the Mets keep out of the nearer market shifting ahead. –Chris Towers

That the Mariners would commerce Ford, who has been one of many high catcher prospects from the time he was drafted in 2021, was all however sure given the Cal Raleigh of all of it. That they’d get solely a blah reliever in return was sudden. However wait, wasn’t Ferrer the Nationals‘ nearer by the tip of final season? Yeah, as a result of they traded everybody else away. He throws exhausting, however the numbers actually aren’t closer-caliber, and even if you wish to say his 3.03 FIP is extra indicative of his potential than his 4.48 ERA, so what? Left-handers who get floor balls at a excessive fee, whereas helpful, usually aren’t thought-about high commerce foreign money. The Mariners really gave up a second minor-leaguer within the deal as effectively.

Clearly, Ferrer will not be closing video games anymore, so no matter Fantasy worth he may need had is now kaput. What about Ford? Nicely, the Nationals do have Keibert Ruiz locked up via 2030, however he was ravaged by concussions in 2025 and has carried out beneath expectations every of the previous two seasons. Not like Raleigh, he is a catcher that Ford might moderately overtake. Ford stands out most for his plate self-discipline, having reached base at a .408 clip in 2025 and a .405 clip for his minor league profession, and he has playable pop to his pull aspect. He had been a prolific base-stealer up to now however put a cease to that in 2025, for some cause. With as deep as catcher is correct now, you will not must make a giant play for him even in two-catcher leagues, however that might change if he garners loads of buzz this spring. –Scott White

There have been three lesser prospects moved on this deal as effectively, however we’ll follow the precept gamers. The Password, as Garcia is often identified, is a borderline top-100 prospect who bought 9 plate appearances for the Purple Sox final yr after a productive exhibiting between Double- and Triple-A. However whereas energy is meant to be his calling card, he delivered solely an 86.4 mph common exit velocity in his 81 video games at Triple-A. His house run output depends on him pulling the ball within the air with regularity, and since PNC Park charges because the worst house run venue for right-handed hitters, that is … form of an issue. Garcia additionally had a excessive chase fee at Triple-A, to not point out a excessive miss fee on pitches within the zone, so there are ample causes for skepticism right here, even when this traded presents him a a lot clearer path to taking part in time.

Oviedo additionally strikes me as extra of a curiosity than a real asset. His 9 begins late in 2025 a minimum of confirmed him to be wholesome after a prolonged restoration from Tommy John surgical procedure, however the outings had been quick, with just one exceeding 5 innings, and the three.57 ERA was undercut by a 4.92 FIP. Whereas he exhibits some potential as a bat-misser, it isn’t practically sufficient to make up for his vulnerability to walks and residential runs, and my guess is that he’ll serve extra as a swingman than a full-time starter for the Purple Sox. –Scott White

“My guess at present is that Pagan doesn’t signal as a more in-depth.” That is what I mentioned on the Fantasy Baseball Immediately podcast Monday night time. However the a technique to make sure he’ll stay a more in-depth is to re-sign with the crew that simply used him as a more in-depth, and that is precisely what occurred Wednesay Monday Emilio Pagan indicators with Reds re-upped him on a two-year $20 million deal.

It might work out fantastic. It clearly did in 2025, seeing him recording 32 saves with a 2.88 ERA. However it marked solely the second time in six years that he had an ERA beneath 4.40, and he remained as homer-prone as ever, which accounts for the three.72 FIP and three.91 xFIP. Pitching in Cincinnati ought to solely exacerbate these house run issues, and simply because he dodged a bullet the primary time doesn’t suggest he’ll once more. He deserves to be drafted among the many high 20 relievers, simply because there are solely so many in line for saves, however there’s particular bust potential. –Scott White

Mullins’ manufacturing has been in decline for some time now and hit all-time low when he batted .182 with a .565 OPS after becoming a member of the Mets in a midseason commerce. However he is nonetheless a plus defender in middle discipline (which is greater than will be mentioned for Chandler Simpson), his exit velocities have held pretty regular even with the diminished manufacturing, and he simply delivered a career-high pull-air fee. There are worse gambles a thrifty membership might make than to ink a former 30/30 man to a one-year, $7 million deal. My finest guess is that Mullins suits into some form of platoon and places up usable energy/pace numbers for a five-outfielder league. Seeing as he is a profession .189 hitter with a .519 OPS at Tropicana Discipline, although, I would be extra prone to alter these expectations down than up. –Scott White

Early December is seemingly the time to buy failed main league pitchers who rehabilitated their worth in East Asia, as a result of Kay turns into the third such participant to register two days. He is the primary to signal out of Japan slightly than Korea, and whereas his 2025 strikeout fee wasn’t practically as spectacular in Cody Ponce’s, he was taking part in within the harder league.

The 1.74 ERA is a purple herring (as such an ERA virtually at all times is) as a result of NPB has been going via a dead-ball part the previous few years, however Kay is a vastly totally different pitcher than after we final noticed him in 2023. He is now primarily sinker/cutter slightly than fastball/slider, turning into the type of excessive ground-ball pitcher (56 % fee in 2025) that may overcome a modest strikeout fee, and has a wider arsenal basically. He is unlikely to be rather more than a streamer in Fantasy, notably pitching for a non-contender just like the White Sox, however as with each pitcher who takes this profession path, there may be the potential for a shock. –Scott White

Cody Ponce indicators with Blue Jays

After an unremarkable stint with the Pirates earlier within the decade, Ponce spent just a few years refining his sport abroad, and it culminated with him incomes MVP honors within the Korean Baseball Group final yr. The award is straightforward to grasp given the numbers, however what’s behind these numbers? Apparently, he is added 2 mph to his fastball since we final noticed him in 2021, and he is additionally added a kick change (generally recognized as a splitter) that produces unbelievable tumbling motion with its minimal spin (typically beneath 1,000 rpm). Although he additionally has a sweeper, it is the fastball and changeup that primarily account for his 12.6 Okay/9, the very best for any former MLB pitcher getting back from the KBO.

The Blue Jays are making a reasonable-sized dedication, too. Three years, $30 million, whereas having the potential to make him a cut price, is not stab-in-the-dark cash. They’re satisfied Ponce can maintain down a rotation spot for them, and I am satisfied he’ll a minimum of be viable in Fantasy, along with his core parts suggesting even higher than that. Nonetheless, the 2026 beginning pitcher crop is deep sufficient in upside performs that I could not justify utilizing greater than a late-round choose on him. –Scott White

A former fourth-round choose of the Diamondbacks, Weiss wasn’t ok to succeed in the majors earlier than departing for Korea in 2024, however after placing collectively spectacular numbers there in 2025 (see above), he’ll get an opportunity to compete for a spot within the Astros rotation on a one-year, $2.6 million deal. That is not an amazing monetary dedication, clearly, which suggests {that a} market didn’t develop for the soon-to-be 29-year-old. Between that and the shortage of clear explanations for Weiss’ breakthrough (past imprecise references to improved command and a broader secondary arsenal), I am inclined to assume it was much less about Weiss himself than his competitors. He might have stretches when he is streamable, however barring some eye-opening efficiency this spring, he ought to go largely undrafted in Fantasy. –Scott White

The Bronx chewed up and spit out Williams, heretofore a lockdown ace of a more in-depth, however absolutely the opposite New York borough will makes for a gentler touchdown. Or … under no circumstances. In truth, this deal presents little in the best way of closure as a result of the Mets’ mountain of sources permits them to pursue one other big-dollar reliever, as much as and together with Edwin Diaz, who would after all take priority over Williams within the ninth inning. However the Mets are paying Williams nearer cash — three years, $45 million, together with further incentives — so for now, let’s presume he is their nearer.

Whereas we might have favored him to land in a lower-pressure locale, the one cause to quote New York as the reason for his struggles is as a result of there aren’t any extra apparent ones. His pitches all had the identical form and velocity. He missed bats at his regular elite fee. His 3.11 xERA and a couple of.68 FIP had been each a lot decrease than his 4.79 ERA. He was mainly the identical pitcher. The outcomes had been simply worse. Usually, you’d guess on a rebound in that state of affairs, and I nonetheless assume that is the correct transfer, which is why I rank him simply inside my high 12 relievers. However I would really feel higher had he signed some place else. –Scott White

Whereas some groups had been reportedly eyeing Helsley as a rotation candidate, the Orioles plan to make use of him as a more in-depth with Felix Bautista (shoulder) anticipated out for almost all of 2016. Helsley was an amazing nearer not so way back, registering 49 saves with a 2.04 ERA in 2024, however he was not so nice or perhaps a nearer when final we noticed him, placing collectively a 7.20 ERA in 22 appearances for the Mets following a midseason commerce from the Cardinals.

After attending to the basis of the issue, which was apparently a inform in his supply, he completed his Mets tenure with seven scoreless innings, and the Orioles evidently felt assured sufficient give him a two-year, $28 million deal. It isn’t the type of contract that an ace reliever who’s fully worry-free would get, nevertheless it’s a sturdy dedication nonetheless. With the Orioles anticipated again in playoff rivalry, you need to anticipate drafting Helsley within the 12-15 vary at reduction pitcher. He is has the potential to be high 5. –Scott White

$210 million is some huge cash for a pitcher coming off a 4.55 ERA. However as I wrote in my extra in-depth breakdown of the signing, that ERA does not come near telling the entire story with Stop. Sure, he is frustratingly inconsistent. He is additionally a real workhorse, taking the ball each fifth day and offering quantity and strikeouts. With ERA and WHIP threat, positive, however there’s clearly loads of upside there, too. He is going off the board in early drafts round eightieth total, because the twentieth SP off the board or thereabouts, and that looks like an ideal fantastic worth for a man along with his combination of upside and projectable quantity. There aren’t many pitchers whose absolute best-case state of affairs is as attractive for Fantasy as Stop’s. –Chris Towers

The Purple Sox have been anticipated to make a giant splash in both free company or within the commerce marketplace for a rotation improve, and this commerce is likely to be it. Grey struggled to a 4.28 ERA and 1.23 WHIP final season, however his underlying metrics had been extra indicative of a top-of-rotation arm, together with a 26.7% strikeout fee, 3.39 FIP and three.29 SIERA. The 36-year-old has seen his velocity decline in consecutive seasons, nevertheless, and his high quality of contact metrics took a giant step again in 2025, which is why his xERA was a extra pedestrian 3.90 mark. He is a strong pitcher, each for the Purple Sox and for Fantasy, however I do not assume he is a needle-mover in both occasion at this level in his profession, even when the Purple Sox would possibly have the ability to get him of their pitching lab and squeeze some additional worth out of him. There’s nonetheless room for the Purple Sox to improve this rotation, in different phrases. –Chris Towers

In trade for Grey, the Cardinals bought a few fascinating youthful arms. Fitts is extra of a identified amount, and he hasn’t given us a lot cause to be excited. He had a 5.00 ERA with even worse peripherals in 2025, so whereas he would possibly slide into the Cardinals rotation, it will largely be for an absence of higher choices.  Clarke is the extra fascinating long-term venture, with a fastball that may contact 100 mph and a slider that’s already a weapon. The remainder of the arsenal is a piece in progress. He walked 27 in simply 38 innings throughout two ranges of A-Ball in 2025, so this can be a actual venture. If all comes collectively, he would possibly have the ability to hack it as a starter, however he seems extra like a Ryan Helsley-in-waiting sort of high-leverage bullpen arm in the long term.

The opposite factor value noting right here is that, with Grey out of the image and Miles Mikolas leaving by way of free company, there are a number of holes within the Cardinals rotation proper now. Prospects Quinn Mathews and Tink Therefore have expertise within the excessive minors and could possibly be choices for the 2026 rotation, although each have troublesome 2025 campaigns that might lead the crew to need to see extra success at Triple-A earlier than they make that decision. For Fantasy, these are each names to know heading into spring coaching in case they will steal rotation spots. Liam Doyle, a 2025 first-round choose, appears prone to be extra of a midseason consideration after he threw simply 3 2/3 post-draft innings within the execs, however he might completely be a quick riser early in 2026, too. –Chris Towers

The Mets and Rangers continued the early offseason development of buying and selling main leaguers for different main leaguers in an trade of two ageing ones with a number of years remaining on their offers. Nimmo, who’s 32, has proven solely faint indicators of decline, if even these, persevering with to make worthwhile contributions in house runs and stolen bases with huge run and RBI manufacturing. He is becoming a member of a worse lineup that performs in a worse venue, however any modifications to his manufacturing could be slight, presuming good well being.

Semien, who’s 35, has seen his manufacturing nosedive the previous two years, however this commerce might serve to sluggish and even reverse the decline given the park improve. Statcast estimates he’d have a dozen extra house runs throughout that very same two-year span if he had performed each sport at Citi Discipline. That is my greatest takeaway from this commerce, however Chris Towers has written an entire breakdown of it, which you’ll find right here. –Scott White

Iglesias re-ups for one yr at precisely the identical fee ($16 million) because the earlier three. Clearly, the Braves had been on the lookout for continuity, and that makes the evaluation right here slightly straightforward. He is the nearer once more for an anticipated contender and a close to lock for 30 saves, supplied he stays wholesome. He missed that quantity by one in 2025, largely due to some early-season struggles. As soon as he in the reduction of on his slider, although, he was clearly again to kind, compiling a 1.25 ERA, 0.69 WHIP and 10.0 Okay/9 in his remaining 45 appearances. That’ll play, all proper, and positions Iglesias to be one of many first 12 relievers off the board in 2026. –Scott White

What a fall for Rodriguez, who was regarded a pair years in the past as one of many sport’s burgeoning aces after a multi-year run as a top-10 total prospect. Now, the Orioles have dealt him away for one yr of some 32-year-old outfielder who simply hit .228. That is not fully truthful to Ward, who additionally related for 36 house runs in 2025, however most projections have him regressing to 25-30 in 2026. He is additionally becoming a member of a crew that is loaded with solid-but-less-than-All-Star-worthy nook bats. There already wasn’t room within the lineup for all of Dylan Beavers, Samuel Basallo, Coby Mayo, Tyler O’Neill and Ryan Mountcastle. Now, there’s room for one fewer. It will not be Ward, however does that imply we’ll have to attend even longer for Basallo to contribute in Fantasy? In that case, that is a bummer.

However the true story right here is Rodriguez, who Angels GM Perry Minasian says is anticipated to be prepared for spring coaching after lacking all of 2025 with lat and elbow points. The lat has been a recurring drawback, additionally costing Rodriguez time in 2024 and as a minor leaguer in 2022, and the elbow required debridement surgical procedure in August. The Orioles solely made this deal as a result of they could not belief him to remain wholesome, however having mentioned that, he would not be the primary pitcher to beat a multi-year damage development and nonetheless go on to satisfy his potential. We’ve got no proof that his stuff has diminished with this newest rash of accidents, so I am nonetheless inclined to rank him as a high 75 beginning pitcher for 2026. This commerce is bound to present some drafters pause even at that late stage, although.  –Scott White

Grisham’s choice to simply accept the qualifying provide is a curious one provided that he simply had far and away his finest season, homering 34 instances as the first middle fielder for the Yankees. Some main shops had been projecting him to obtain a four- or five-year deal for the same annual worth because the qualifying provide, however his agent in all probability has a greater learn available on the market.

If nothing else, you may say he is betting on himself with this transfer, hoping to re-enter the market subsequent offseason with out the stigma of being a one-hit marvel, however now comes the exhausting half: doing it once more. You would possibly assume the return to Yankee Stadium will assist, provided that he is a left-handed batter, however he really hit two-thirds of his house runs on the street. If the Yankees are severe about giving Jasson Dominguez common taking part in time subsequent yr and in addition bringing again Cody Bellinger, Grisham could also be combating for at-bats once more. The Yankees nonetheless make for a greater touchdown than loads of golf equipment, however you may perceive why drafters would possibly strategy Grisham with some skepticism in 2026. –Scott White

A modest exhibiting by Torres in 2025 led him to simply accept the Tigers’ qualifying provide slightly than testing the free agent market, and also you would possibly assume a return to Comerica Park is a foul transfer for his Fantasy worth given its popularity. However it really performed effectively for right-handed hitters in 2025, and Torres batted .285 with a .449 slugging proportion there in comparison with .223 and .327 on the street. On stability, he carried out effectively beneath his .271 xBA and .452 xSLG, having delivered his finest common exit velocity in three years and a few of his finest stroll and strikeout numbers ever, so some higher luck would go a good distance towards redeeming him in Fantasy. He is not a surefire top-12 alternative, although, even at a place as skinny as second base. –Scott White

One thing tells me that if Woodruff hadn’t gone into the offseason nursing a lat damage, he would not have needed to settle for the Brewers’ qualifying provide, as an alternative pursuing a multi-year deal. However now, he is again in prove-it mode after already overcoming a extra important shoulder damage in close to miraculous trend. Despite the fact that the shoulder capsule surgical procedure that he underwent in 2023 took 3 mph off his fastball — usually a career-ender for a pitcher, notably one so fastball-reliant — he mainly picked up the place he left off statistically, even delivering the perfect strikeout fee of his profession. A brand new cutter is essentially to credit score for saving him, and his fortunes rose and fell with its utilization. He’ll be a lot motivated now that he is pitching for a contract once more, however he would have been value choosing among the many high 36 beginning pitchers both approach.  –Scott White

The Cubs’ choice to say no Imanaga’s three-year, $57.5 million choice after the season makes extra sense now that we see the best way every part performed out. They in all probability suspected he’d settle for the $22.025 million qualifying provide, which he did, so now they nonetheless have him however with out the multi-year dedication.

The maneuver would appear to alleviate suspicions that he is cooked, which had been value entertaining provided that quite a few key metrics fell off throughout his sophomore season, specifically his Okay/9 fee (from 9.0 to 7.3) and his swinging-strike fee (from 14.5 % to 11.9 %). It is type of deceptive to name it his sophomore season provided that he is 32, and his age contributed to these fears of decline as effectively. Nonetheless, he was efficient when wholesome, remaining a standout for WHIP particularly. Nobody will mistake him for an ace in 2026, however he must be drafted within the center rounds. –Scott White

Usually, a hitter signing with the Mariners would not be essentially the most favorable final result given T-Cell Park’s popularity as a pitcher-friendly venue. However Naylor did not have any issues there after coming over in a midseason commerce with the Diamondbacks, batting .360 (32 for 89) with 5 homers and a 1.015 OPS within the Mariners’ house video games.

Furthermore, the Mariners appeared to unlock the base-stealer in him. His 11 stolen bases in 93 video games with the Diamondbacks had been stunning sufficient, however then he had 19 in simply 54 video games with the Mariners. Given his third percentile dash pace, another crew may need put a cease to that, however the Mariners do not appear to care. He was succeeding, in any case. It is uncertain he steals 30 once more, which is why he stays solely eighth in my first base rankings, however a return to the Mariners improves Naylor’s possibilities of remaining a base-stealer in some capability. For extra, try Chris Towers’ full-length article. –Scott White