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On Monday night, a new champion will be crowned in college football.
Miami will play on its home field, looking for its first national title since 2001. Meanwhile, Indiana will look to complete one of the most improbable, impressive turnarounds in sports history, as it aims for its first national championship.
Both of these teams were viewed as long shots to be playing in late January when the season started, as Miami was around 50-1 to win it all, and Indiana, despite making the College Football Playoff last year, was as high as 200-1 at some spots.
While Indiana’s odds-defying run is a Hollywood script in the making, Miami was a long shot to even be included in the CFP in the days and minutes leading up to the selection back in December.
The storylines are endless regardless of who wakes up Tuesday morning as defending champions heading into next August, but let’s take a look at this game from a betting perspective.
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Indiana is a sizable 8.5-point favorite despite playing this game at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, with a total set at 47.5. I have been a believer in Miami’s prospects in this tournament from the moment it controversially got in over Notre Dame. Despite being an underdog, Miami is loaded with NFL talent on both sides of the ball. That dominance up front is what leads me to what I view as a worthwhile wager on who will be the offensive MVP of this game.
Miami running back Mark Fletcher is a 10-1 long shot (a $10 bet wins $100), and I believe his production is the key to an upset win for the Canes. In the three Playoff games leading up to Monday night, Fletcher has carried the ball 58 times for 395 yards, and also caught a touchdown.
While MVP voters generally lean toward giving the MVP to quarterbacks, the structure of Miami’s team opens up the possibility that someone else could win it if the Hurricanes were to beat the Hoosiers.
Miami quarterback Carson Beck has been solid, but not spectacular, in three postseason wins. If Miami wins Monday, a big part of its success will likely come from moving the chains with the running game, and keeping Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza off of the field.
Fletcher, averaging 6.8 yards per carry in the Playoff, running behind a dominant offensive line, might be able to run his way to another big night and a national title for the home underdogs.
At 10-1, considering the likely gameplan for Miami, I like Fletcher as a long-shot MVP bet.
PICK: Mark Fletcher (+1000) CFP Championship Offensive MVP
Will Hill, a contributor on the Bear Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.
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