Novo Nordisk, Pfizer execs weigh in

Drug pricing. Looming patent cliffs. Dealmaking. The primary 12 months of Trump 2.0.

These are among the many themes that dominated conversations final week as drugmakers of all sizes met with traders to map out their plans for 2026 and past on the annual JPMorgan Healthcare Convention in San Francisco. 

After geopolitical uncertainty weighed on dealmaking in the course of the first half of 2025, traders and drugmakers sounded optimistic that 2026 could mark a turning level for the sector. Traders are starting to see indicators of restoration in U.S. biotech to this point this 12 months after years of volatility, betting that decrease rates of interest and a renewed urge for food for offers will reopen the IPO window.

The convention lacked the splashy, high-dollar acquisitions that usually take heart stage there. However massive pharma made it clear it’s on the hunt for potential buyouts and collaborations because it appears to make up for roughly $300 billion in attainable misplaced income as patents for blockbuster medication expire towards the top of the last decade. 

Some considerations round President Donald Trump‘s health-care coverage agenda have eased after greater than a dozen main drugmakers ended 2025 with landmark drug pricing offers and three-year reprieves from tariffs.

When requested about whether or not he nonetheless held to his prediction final 12 months that Trump can be a optimistic for the sector, Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla informed reporters final week, “Sure,” regardless that “I obtained scared massive time” alongside the best way.

Nonetheless, traders try to grasp how the drug pricing agreements will impression companies, and parse out the implications of coverage adjustments like softer U.S. vaccine suggestions. 

Here is what we heard from pharma executives in regards to the 12 months forward. 

Some executives mentioned the latest drug pricing offers – a part of Trump’s “most-favored-nation” coverage – scale back uncertainty and can seemingly have a modest impression on their companies. 

The agreements contain reducing costs of sure merchandise for Medicaid sufferers by tying them to the bottom ones overseas, and agreeing to promote some medicines at a reduction on direct-to-consumer platforms, together with the administration’s upcoming TrumpRx website. 

“I do not need to give the impression that there isn’t any impression from [the most-favored-nation deal,] as a result of there may be,” Sanofi CEO Paul Hudson informed reporters at a media occasion Wednesday morning. “The query for us is, can we handle that and ship a horny long-range plan? We really feel, to this point, we are able to.”

Sanofi and several other different firms with pricing offers may define how they count on the agreements to have an effect on their companies after they launch their 2026 outlooks within the coming weeks.

AstraZeneca expects the preliminary results of its drug pricing deal to be restricted and manageable, because it to this point applies to a particular Medicaid inhabitants and represents “a low single-digit proportion” of the corporate’s world gross sales, mentioned CFO Aradhana Sarin throughout a presentation on Jan. 13. 

In the meantime, Bourla informed reporters on Jan. 12 that the offers will assist firms strain European nations to extend what they may pay for medication, much like how the UK agreed in December to elevate costs for medicines as a part of a commerce cope with the U.S.

He mentioned firms may cease supplying medicines to some nations that refuse to pay extra. 

“Do you scale back [U.S.] costs to France’s degree or cease supplying France? You cease supplying France,” Bourla mentioned. “So they may keep with out new medicines … as a result of the system will pressure us not to have the ability to settle for the decrease costs.”

Pharmaceutical firms had been assured they’ll offset losses from upcoming patent expirations of in style medication, and zeroed in on dealmaking as a important software so as to add new income. Cheaper generic variations of brand-name medication usually enter the market after their patents expire, resulting in important value drops and a lack of market share over time as a result of elevated competitors.

Throughout a presentation on Jan. 12, Merck CEO Rob Davis mentioned his firm hopes “to develop by means of” the upcoming lack of exclusivity for its top-selling most cancers immunotherapy Keytruda. 

Merck raised its outlook for brand spanking new merchandise, saying these objects will contribute a projected $70 billion in gross sales by the mid-2030s. That’s nearly double what Wall Road expects Keytruda to document in 2028 earlier than its patent expires. Keytruda generated $29.48 billion in gross sales in 2024, which was practically half of Merck’s whole income for that 12 months.

Davis indicated that Merck might not be executed with dealmaking, particularly for later-stage or already-approved merchandise. 

“Should you look from a greenback perspective, we have been wanting in that as much as $15 billion greenback vary,” he mentioned. “We have been very clear that we’re keen to go bigger than that, however we solely will achieve this following the very same logic and self-discipline.”

Bristol Myers Squibb has the best publicity to the upcoming lack of exclusivity cycle, with blockbuster medication such because the blood thinner Eliquis set to face generic competitors, in response to a word from JPMorgan analysts in late December. Eliquis raked in $13.3 billion in gross sales in 2024, making up greater than 1 / 4 of the corporate’s income for the 12 months.

However in an interview on Jan. 13, Bristol Myers Squibb CEO Chris Boerner mentioned the corporate has the potential to ship as much as 10 new merchandise by the top of the last decade.

“We really feel actually good in regards to the substrate we’ve in late-stage improvement, and the mid-stage pipeline can also be progressing properly,” he informed CNBC. 

Boerner highlighted 11 late-stage knowledge readouts in 2026 throughout six potential new merchandise. Boerner mentioned the corporate is “casting a large internet” for its enterprise improvement.

He added that Bristol Myers Squibb is hoping to construct on the core therapeutic areas it is aware of nicely, look throughout completely different phases of improvement and give attention to “one of the best, most modern science that we are able to discover” to deal with difficult-to-treat illnesses. 

This 12 months, Novo Nordisk can also be going through patent expirations for semaglutide – the energetic ingredient in its blockbuster diabetes drug Ozempic and weight problems counterpart Wegovy – in sure nations, together with Canada and China. 

Novo Nordisk CEO Mike Doustdar mentioned 2026 “would be the 12 months of value strain” as a result of generic competitors in some worldwide markets and its U.S. drug pricing deal. He added that Novo Nordisk goals to offset value cuts with quantity development and can be energetic in enterprise improvement to see what “can complement our personal pipeline.” 

These feedback come after Novo Nordisk misplaced a heated bidding warfare with Pfizer final 12 months over the weight problems biotech Metsera.

Some executives reiterated considerations in regards to the administration’s adjustments to U.S. immunization coverage beneath Well being and Human Companies Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. – a distinguished vaccine skeptic – and his appointees. That features the Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention’s latest transfer to roll again the variety of immunizations routinely really helpful for kids. 

“I am very aggravated. I am very disillusioned,” Pfizer’s Bourla mentioned, including that “what is occurring has zero scientific advantage and is simply serving an agenda, which is political.” 

He added, “I believe we do see that there are reductions in vaccination charges of children and that can elevate illnesses, and I am sure about that.” However Bourla mentioned he does not imagine the latest adjustments to the childhood vaccine schedule will impression Pfizer’s backside line. 

He mentioned the strain the administration is placing on immunizations “is an anomaly that can appropriate itself.” 

In the meantime, Sanofi’s Hudson mentioned the scrutiny of vaccines by the Trump administration is aligned with what the corporate anticipated forward of the 2024 election.

“I’ve had conversations with Kennedy, we simply attempt to follow the info of the proof,” Hudson mentioned. “There’s not a lot we are able to do.”

“I simply hope that the proof is sufficient ultimately with all this stuff,” he added.