Bracketology Winners and Losers: How weak is the 2026 NCAA Match bubble? Simply ask Texas and Auburn

NASHVILLE, Tenn.  — The 2026 NCAA Match bubble is so weak that groups struggling via extended late-season slumps are getting grace merely as a result of others across the at-large cut-line are shedding, too. Working example: Texas.

The Longhorns took a Quad 2 loss in opposition to Ole Miss on Wednesday within the first spherical of the SEC Match at Bridgestone Area, falling 76-66 in opposition to a Rebels group that’s now simply 13-19. The Longhorns will arrive at Choice Sunday as an 18-14 group that has dropped 5 of its final six video games.

However they’re nonetheless alive in kicking within the race for an at-large bid.

After one other day of carnage, the Longhorns will stay within the CBS Sports activities Bracketology discipline of 68 for now, largely as a result of nobody has risen to take their spot.

Texas entered the day at No. 44 within the all-important Wins Above Bubble (WAB) metric and can take a success following the loss. However the WAB’s No. 46 (SMU), No. 47 (Indiana), No. 48 (Oklahoma State) and No. 49 (Cal) groups additionally misplaced Wednesday to offer some padding for the Longhorns’ newest fall.

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The wasted Wednesday for bubble groups adopted a horrible Tuesday that noticed Stanford and Virginia Tech lose of their first spherical ACC Match video games and slide from reasonable at-large consideration to territory that must be unpalatable for inclusion.

Winner: Auburn survives one other day

A 79-61 win over lowly Mississippi State wasn’t precisely a resume-enhancer for Auburn. However the win saved the Tigers’ at-large hopes alive on a day when many others of their neighborhood struggled. A Saturday showdown with No. 5 seed Tennessee within the SEC Match’s second spherical will likely be large for the Tigers, who crept into the final spot within the discipline in CBS Sports activities Bracketology on Wednesday evening.

Loser: Texas’ case dampened by previous coach

Texas’ early exit from the SEC Match got here with the added sting of being inflicted by former coach Chris Beard, who led the Longhorns to a No. 6 seed within the 2022 Large Dance throughout his solely full season main this system. However in Beard, the Longhorns have an advocate coming into a nervy Choice Sunday.

“I feel the resume speaks for itself within the SEC,” Beard mentioned of the Longhorns, who owns six Quad 1 wins. “My confidence is they might have a pleasant NCAA Match. Sean (Miller) is aware of what he is doing. He is performed it with a number of groups, and I feel they have actually good gamers. The NCAA Match, for my part, it comes right down to matchups, and I feel Texas has gamers that may make them the second weekend.”

Winner: NC State nears security

NC State‘s 98-88 win over Pitt within the ACC Match was no factor of magnificence, and it could have been all of the Wolfpack must solidify themselves within the discipline of 68. Beating a nasty Pitt group will convey little actual increase to NC State’s resume. Nevertheless it positive beat the choice at a time when others on the bubble are struggling. Would a win over No. 2 seed Virginia in Thursday’s quarterfinals convey some insurance coverage? Completely. However except there’s a surge of bid thieves and a sudden wave of surprises from the dwindling bubble contingent, Will Wade’s membership must be dancing throughout his first season on the helm.

Loser: Indiana makes a weak impression

Indiana entered the Large Ten Match possible needing a run to the quarterfinals to garner critical at-large consideration. The Hoosiers got here up nicely wanting the goal, falling 74-61 in opposition to Northwestern of their opening recreation of the Large Ten Match on Wednesday. IU will head into Choice Sunday at 18-14 with losses in six of its final seven video games. The Hoosiers may have a unfavourable rating in WAB and an unsavory 6-14 report in opposition to Quad 1 and Quad 2 opposition.

Winner: Iowa a lock?

Whether or not Iowa performed itself to sure lock standing with a 75-64 win over No. 17 seed Maryland on Wednesday might need been up for debate had a bunch of different bubble groups gained. However the Hawkeyes averted the disaster which might have been shedding to the 12-win Terrapins and sure secured their spot within the discipline. Beating Ohio State on Thursday would make for some nice insurance coverage, however the Hawkeyes most likely do not want it at this level after bettering to 21-11.

Loser: Cal goes down

Cal obtained a brutal draw for the ACC Match, because the No. 9 seed Bears opened in opposition to a scorching Florida State group. The No. 8 seed Seminoles saved their late-season surge alive with a 95-89 victory that possible ended Cal’s at-large aspirations. The Bears entered the day at No. 49 in WAB and lagging in different metrics. They most likely wanted a win over FSU and an upset of No. 1 seed Duke on Thursday. However Cal will not get a crack on the Blue Devils, and the Bears should not anticipate to see their identify flash throughout the display on Sunday.

Loser: SMU’s destiny up for debate 

SMU‘s at-large destiny is up for debate following the Mustangs’ 62-58 loss to Louisville within the second spherical of the ACC Match. The Mustangs will head into Choice Sunday having dropped 5 of their previous six video games and with a profile of results-based metrics hovering within the mid-40s, which is correct across the at-large minimize line. With a mixed 9 Quad 1 and Quad 2 victories, this group definitely has an opportunity. However the subsequent few days will likely be nerve-wracking for a Mustangs program that seemed to be in nice form only a few weeks in the past.

Winner: UCF earns safety

UCF might need been protected both means. Now, the Knights can exhale after rallying for a 66-65 time beyond regulation win over Cincinnati on the Large 12 Match. No matter what occurs in Thursday’s quarterfinal matchup with No. 1 seed Arizona, UCF (21-10) ought to enter Choice Sunday with a ok resume. This group has a lagging NET rating (No. 51 coming into Wednesday’s motion) however it’s comfortably contained in the top-40 of WAB, which is extra intently correlated with choice. It might be a giant shock if the Knights are usually not dancing.

Loser: Cincinnati’s dream dies

Cincinnati tried its finest to rally over the ultimate month of the common season, profitable six of seven video games at one level to succeed in the bubble dialogue. However after falling 73-63 at TCU in Saturday’s common season finale and shedding to UCF on Wednesday, the Bearcats’ dream has of dancing has died.