Countdown to Massive Midday Saturday: How Pivotal is Beating Michigan to Ryan Day’s Legacy?

The stakes in “The Game” haven’t been this heavy in years.

For Michigan, a fifth straight win over Ohio State would be a massive statement and give the Wolverines a legitimate case for a College Football Playoff berth.

On the other side, Ryan Day enters with an 81-10 record and a national title, yet the Michigan problem hangs over everything. At 1-4 against the Wolverines, this matchup represents more than a path to the postseason. Another loss would raise questions that no record or championship can quiet.

We asked FOX Sports college football writers to weigh in: What has to happen for Michigan to pull the upset, and how pivotal is this game for Day’s legacy in Ohio State history?

1. What needs to happen for Michigan to pull off an upset over Ohio State and secure a fifth straight win in the rivalry? If they do, would the Wolverines deserve a spot in the College Football Playoff?

RJ Young: I’m sure Michael is going to hit on this like Bryce Underwood dropping back to throw a 9-route to Andrew Marsh — or like his phenomenal profile of Underwood you can read here — but it’s the best known statistic in the modern era of this rivalry: the team that rushes the ball best wins. And that team has won this game, ahem, “The Game,” 23 times in a row. What that usually means is both teams spend 28 minutes of the game trying to prove to the millions watching that they are, without question, the toughest, most physical team on the field. 

For Michigan, that’s always going to be the formula for beating Ohio State, because they’ve never shown any interest in another. The Wolverines have as many 3,000-yard passers as Cerberus has heads, and they like it that way. They just don’t care to move the ball through the air and would prefer their offense to run more like an Irish rugby scrum. If they can bully Matt Patricia’s No. 1 scoring defense like that, great. If not, Underwood might finally need to put on that cape Biff Poggi insists he’s hiding in his locker.

For Ohio State, don’t be cute. You can run the ball when you’re up three scores. Until then go up three-scores.

To do that, throw the damn ball. 

Throw it with perhaps the most accurate single-season passer in history, Buckeye QB Julian Sayin. Throw it to wideouts Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate early and often. With Brian Hartline calling plays, feeding the two best offensive threats Ohio State has on its roster hasn’t been an issue, so don’t fix it, because it sure isn’t broken.

The defense will do what it does and what it has all season. Make Underwood be phenomenal in the face of the defending national champs and introduce him to the greatest rivalry in the sport by punishing him for even thinking he can win it as a true freshman starting quarterback.

Michael Cohen: History says the Wolverines must win the rushing battle to come out on top this weekend. It’s a statistic that has aligned with 23 consecutive victors in college football’s best rivalry, as controlling the line of scrimmage takes center stage. The last team to get out-rushed and still win “The Game” was Michigan in 2000, back when current U-M coach Sherrone Moore was still in high school and current Ohio State head coach Ryan Day was still playing quarterback at New Hampshire. That’s quite a significant sample size. So if Michigan can win the rushing battle, which dovetails with the style of football the Wolverines love to play, there’s a very good chance they’ll pull the upset on Saturday. 

But what, exactly, would that look like for Michigan? Given the injury to starting tailback Justice Haynes, who had topped 100 rushing yards in six games before suffering a foot injury that required surgery, the Wolverines’ plan is expected to revolve around backups Jordan Marshall and Bryson Kuzdzal — both capable players. Marshall is a former four-star prospect from Archbishop Moeller High School in Cincinnati, Ohio, meaning his understanding of this rivalry includes real-life experience on both sides of the geographic divide. He replaced Haynes as Michigan’s lead back and immediately strung together four consecutive 100-yard games from mid-October to mid-November, though an injury against Northwestern sidelined him for last week’s win over Maryland. That’s when Kuzdzal, a former walk-on, stepped in to carry 20 times for 100 yards and three scores of his own. Even without Haynes, the running back cabinet is far from bare.  

Though Michigan enters this weekend’s game at No. 15 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings — which places the Wolverines on the outside looking in as things currently stand — a win over Ohio State should be more than enough to vault them into a spot in the field. Given how dominant the Buckeyes have been in becoming the first Big Ten team to win each of its first eight conference games by at least 15 points, a Michigan win would allow the Wolverines to claim the single-best victory in college football this season. It would be difficult for the selection committee to leave them out at 10-2 overall and with a résumé-defining victory over No. 1 Ohio State. 

Laken Litman: Michigan needs to do what they’ve done in previous wins over Ohio State, which is run the ball effectively. Alabama transfer running back Justice Haynes is not expected to play after having foot surgery and is likely out for the rest of the season. But Jordan Marshall, who was injured on Nov. 15 vs. Northwestern and didn’t play last week vs. Maryland, told reporters this week he will be playing in “The Game.” Additionally, Michigan quarterback Bryce Underwood, who has had an impressive freshman season, needs to play mistake-free football and his receivers need to make plays for him. 

Defensively, Michigan needs to do what it did last year, which is limit star playmakers Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate, both of whom are coming off injuries, and pressure quarterback Julian Sayin, who is completing more than 79% of his passes this season. Michigan is the first ranked team that Ohio State has played this season since the opener vs. Texas. The forecast for Ann Arbor on Saturday is 20 degree temps with snow, so the Wolverines need to make Sayin as uncomfortable as possible and control the tempo of the game.

Now, if Michigan beats Ohio State, that would be considered the best win in the country this season. The Wolverines would then make it to the Big Ten championship game if Oregon or Indiana lose this weekend. Even though Michigan would finish the regular season with two losses, it would be difficult to keep them out of the CFP after beating the No. 1 team.

2. Ryan Day is 81–10 as Ohio State’s head coach and is fresh off leading the Buckeyes to a national championship, but Michigan remains the hurdle — he’s just 1–4 against the Wolverines. How pivotal is this year’s matchup in shaping his legacy moving forward?

Laken Litman: It’s huge. Ryan Day’s only victory over Michigan came back in 2019. A win would snap the Wolverines’ four-year winning streak and get those frustrated fans off of Day’s back. Despite winning a national championship last year, there is a faction of Buckeye fans who will not be satisfied until Ohio State gets on its own winning streak against its biggest rival. These kinds of games are important in college football – Urban Meyer was 7-0 against the Wolverines and that’s what this fan base expects.

Winning national championships is nice, especially when you’re talking about a coach’s legacy. But to some fans, there will always be an asterisk next to Day’s name if he doesn’t beat Michigan more often.

RJ Young: I do not care that Ryan Day is 1-4 in “The Game” as much as I care that he’s 1-1 in national title games. Buckeye fans and Michigan fans, though, they care — too much in some instances. Yes, it’s the black mark on Day’s otherwise pristine résumé. But it ain’t James Franklin’s record against AP Top 10 teams, and I refuse to treat it the same way. 

If Day had a problem winning big games, he wouldn’t be 81-10. If Day had a problem getting to or winning in Big Ten Championship games, he wouldn’t be 81-10. If Day had a problem getting past Penn State, Oregon, Iowa, Wisconsin or Purdue, he wouldn’t be 81-10. It’s just Michigan. And it’s in the past four years for which Michigan has reclaimed its pedestal among the blue bloods in this sport because, for damn near 20 years, it didn’t play like one. 

Now, is someone making this a problem for Ryan Day? Not anyone I think you should trust or parrot. He could win the next three games in a row against Michigan and still be .500 against the Wolverines. 

If he loses the next three games against Michigan and wins the next three national titles, the first line on his résumé will read four-time national champion, not couldn’t beat Michigan.

Michael Cohen: Before diving into any potential criticism of Day, it’s important to note that he’s one of only three active coaches to have won a national championship — an exclusive group that includes Kirby Smart at Georgia (two), Dabo Swinney at Clemson (two) and Day. If the Buckeyes are successful in their bid to repeat as champions later this winter, Day will become the first coach in program history to win back-to-back titles and the first Big Ten coach to accomplish that feat since Bernie Bierman led Minnesota to glory in 1940 and 1941. Day already lays claim to the second-best winning percentage of any coach in college football history at .890, trailing only former Yale and Stanford icon Walter Camp, and he’s within a whisker of former OSU head coach Urban Meyer’s program-best mark of .902 from 2012-18. 

But even though Day and Meyer are nearly neck and neck in winning percentage, and even though both brought the Buckeyes a national title, there’s a significant difference between them when it comes to results against Michigan. Where Day has sunk to 1-4 against the Wolverines and will enter this weekend’s matchup riding a four-game losing streak to The Team Up North, his predecessor never lost to Michigan in seven attempts. 

Day’s current run of four consecutive defeats against the Wolverines is the longest since former coach John Cooper dropped that many from 1988-91. And he’s desperate to avoid becoming just the second coach in school history to lose five straight to Michigan — something that hasn’t happened since John H. Wilce lost six in a row from 1922-27. To some of the older, more hardened members of Ohio State’s fan base, Day’s shortcomings against Michigan weren’t forgiven by simply winning the national championship in January. To them, any successful coach of the Buckeyes must gain and maintain control of the rivalry.

And that is why — on some level, anyway — Day’s legacy remains a bit conflicting as things currently stand. His accomplishments are caught between two eras of college football that bathe these rivalry games in significantly different lights. Beating Michigan used to be the only way for Ohio State to finish any given season. But after losing to the Wolverines last November in arguably the biggest failure this rivalry has ever seen, the Buckeyes’ subsequent run through the College Football Playoff proved that one game will no longer derail their campaign. 

Laken Litman covers college football, college basketball and soccer for FOX Sports. She is the author of “Strong Like a Woman,” published in spring 2022 to mark the 50th anniversary of Title IX. Follow her at @LakenLitman.

Michael Cohen covers college football and college basketball for FOX Sports. Follow him at @Michael_Cohen13.

RJ Young is a national college football writer and analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him @RJ_Young.

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