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No. 6 Duke is 12-1 with wins over NCAA Event groups like Kansas, Arkansas, Florida and Michigan State, and but it enters 2026 with questions aplenty after a second-half collapse to Texas Tech, adopted up by Wednesday’s sweaty, six-point win over Georgia Tech as a gargantuan 27.5-point favourite.
Are we making a mountain out of a molehill? Maybe, however even Jon Scheyer appears to be trying to find the suitable mixtures. Duke shifted the beginning lineup for the third time towards Georgia Tech, inserting freshman level guard Cayden Boozer into the fray and diverting wing Nik Khamenia to the second unit.
We’ll be taught concerning the psychological fortitude of this Duke group as a result of regardless that a date with ACC frontrunner Louisville looms on Tuesday, it has to get previous 7-7 Florida State earlier than it could possibly get began on the Cardinals’ scout. First-year ‘Noles coach Luke Loucks is 0-5 towards high-major groups, but when Florida State can push Florida, it could possibly stand up for Duke.
Let’s dive into the ins and outs of this ACC matchup.
Duke vs. Florida State: Have to know
Excessive-variance tilt: Florida State zooms up and down the ground at a breakneck tempo and tries to shoot as many 3-pointers as potential. FSU’s offense has the fifth-fastest common possession size, and 54% of its photographs come from downtown. Loucks would not have Alabama’s star energy but, however he’s utilizing Nate Oats’ sport plan on offense. Capturing this many 3s opens up the door for some wild outcomes … good and dangerous. Thus far for Florida State, it has been largely dangerous. They shot simply 9-for-41 (22%) from downtown towards Texas A&M and acquired smoked by 36 towards an Aggies membership that’s in an identical tier from a expertise perspective. We’ve but to see FSU get it rolling from downtown towards a high-major group. Duke certainly would not need to grow to be the primary group that lets FSU’s barrage of snipers get scorching, or a dogfight may emerge.
Will FSU preserve Duke from hanging on rims? North Carolina threw down 12 dunks towards Florida State on Tuesday. That was probably the most UNC had in a single sport since 2011. Now, FSU has to face off towards Cameron Boozer and Patrick Ngongba? That is no enjoyable. There are simple buckets available within the paint towards this Florida State protection that’s weak when it can not generate takeaways.
Will Duke’s leaky pick-and-roll protection get shored up? Texas Tech’s Christian Anderson took a blowtorch to Duke’s pick-and-roll protection, and Scheyer needed to pivot to a zone protection within the second half to seek out some solutions after Georgia Tech’s ball-handlers had been creating far too many benefits. Duke may have its palms full with FSU level guard Robert McCray V, who ranks sixth within the nation in assists (7.1). Caleb Foster will get the primary flip, however Duke’s switch-heavy protection means anybody on the ground higher be prepared to take a seat down and attempt to guard McCray.
The place to look at Duke vs. Florida State dwell
Date: Saturday, Jan. 3 | Time: 3:45 p.m. ET
Location: Tucker Enviornment — Tallahassee, Florida
TV: CBS | Dwell stream: CBSSports.com, CBS Sports activities App
Streaming on Paramount+ Premium
Duke vs. Florida State prediction, picks
Making a billion 3-pointers (in reality, like 22 treys) feels like Florida State’s only hope to spring this upset. Everything else screams Duke in this one. FSU is a poor defensive-rebounding team. Georgia, Florida and UNC all corralled 15+ offensive rebounds. Ngongba, Cameron Boozer and Maliq Brown should be licking their chops to go to war on the glass. Plus, the pivot to playing Cayden Boozer with Caleb Foster in a two-point guard look should pay dividends in this one. Florida State will pressure the basketball relentlessly. Having two point guards who can break that first wave of pressure should unlock a ton of advantages in this one.
I also do not think FSU has enough capable ball-handlers outside of McCray to consistently break down this Duke defense. Duke has been so good at grinding teams to a halt with its switches. If that happens, Florida State has to hope McCray goes nuclear because there’s not a ton of other true switch-beaters on this FSU roster. If it attacks the paint, does its thing on the glass, blankets the 3-point stripe, controls the tempo and moves the ball without panicking, Duke can run away with this one. Pick: Duke -15
Who will win and cover in every college basketball game? Visit SportsLine to get picks from the model that simulates each game 10,000 times and is up more than $1,200 for $100 players on its top-rated spread picks the past six years.
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