With Vanderbilt facing traditional powerhouses such as Alabama and LSU, it’s been difficult to attract the public betting masses. A historic season and a charismatic quarterback weren’t enough.
“In the Vanderbilt-Alabama game, we still needed Vandy. And in Vandy-LSU, we really needed Vanderbilt,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said.
But in college football Week 9 odds, the tables will likely turn, as the 10th-ranked Commodores host No. 15 Missouri.
Bookmakers and sharp bettors offer their insights on Missouri vs. Vanderbilt and other big matchups, as we dive into this week’s college football betting nuggets.
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Dandy Vandy
As Feazel said, in last week’s LSU-Vanderbilt showdown, Caesars needed the Commodores to win and cover as 1.5-point home favorites. That’s because the Tigers are always well bet, particularly in the Louisiana market.
QB Diego Pavia and Vandy boosted bookmakers with a 31-24 victory. The Commodores improved to 6-1 straight up (SU)/5-2 against the spread (ATS) and are certainly entrenched in the SEC chase.
Caesars opened Vanderbilt as 1.5-point home favorites against Missouri (6-1 SU/5-2 ATS), and within minutes on Sunday, the line jumped to -2.5. Vanderbilt even got to -3 for about 24 hours, from late Sunday afternoon to late Monday afternoon. The Commodores have since been -2.5 for Saturday’s 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff.
Bettors are ready to get on board the Vandy train, starting with Saturday’s 3:30 p.m. ET contest.
“Vanderbilt will start seeing public money now that it’s not facing blue bloods,” Feazel said Wednesday afternoon. “The public is certainly intrigued this week. There’s heavy action on the spread for Vanderbilt.
“Besides Pavia, the Commodores have a pretty good defense. They’re holding back teams that in the past would’ve run over Vanderbilt.”
So finally, Caesars will be rooting against the Commodores.
“We’re gonna need Mizzou this week. I can confidently say that,” Feazel said.
College Football Rocks on FOX
The Big Noon Kickoff on FOX features another surprising team: Indiana, now ranked No. 2 in the country, which no one would’ve forecast in preseason. The Hoosiers (7-0 SU/4-3 ATS) got a signature win at Oregon in Week 7, 30-20, and followed with an easy 38-13 home victory vs. Michigan State.
But upstart UCLA wants to crash the party for the second time this season. After an 0-4 start — and the firing of coach DeShaun Foster following the third loss — the Bruins (3-4 SU and ATS) are on a three-game upswing.
The first of those wins was arguably the upset of the year. UCLA was a 24.5-point home underdog to Penn State and posted an improbable 42-37 victory.
In college football Week 9 odds, UCLA is an even bigger underdog. Caesars opened Indiana as a 23.5-point home favorite, quickly went to -24/-24.5 on Sunday, then went to -25.5 on Monday.
“Indiana is obviously riding high, and UCLA is just another really fun story,” Feazel said in assessing this noon ET Saturday clash. “We’ve seen a little bit of UCLA money. There is a spark with this team.
“The problem is that Indiana can really run up the score, and the Hoosiers are not gonna rest on their laurels. We see Indiana money from the public every week now.”
On Campus Sharp Side
College football betting expert Paul Stone got there in Week 8 with Alabama -8 vs. Tennessee, as the Crimson Tide notched a 37-20 victory. In Week 9, Stone is going back to the SEC well, backing one of the best stories of the season.
Vanderbilt and Missouri harbor not only SEC Championship hopes, but berths in the 12-team College Football Playoff. Stone believes Vanderbilt has a significant advantage at quarterback, siding with the fiery Pavia over Missouri signal-caller Beau Pribula.
“Pavia just has that ‘It’ factor that few possess,” Stone said. “Vanderbilt is 14-6 against the spread since Pavia showed up in Nashville. Pribula is still a work in progress and has thrown two interceptions in each of his last two games.”
So Stone’s money is on Vandy -2.5.
“I like Vanderbilt and see the Commodores winning by a touchdown or more.”
More Must-See SEC TV
Texas A&M (7-0 SU/3-4 ATS) might have the inside track to the SEC Championship Game, with a perfect overall record that includes a 4-0 mark in the SEC. But the Aggies have three road games remaining, all against ranked opponents.
That starts with Saturday’s 7:30 p.m. ET kickoff at No. 20 LSU (5-2 SU/3-4 ATS). The Tigers are up against it, having lost two of their last three, including the aforementioned setback at Vanderbilt.
Caesars opened A&M as a 2-point road favorite and is up to -2.5 on Wednesday night.
“Texas A&M has been under the radar, not necessarily a public darling,” Feazel said. “We’ll see a little more A&M money this week, with how LSU is playing. But there will be two-way action. The LSU faithful will come in.
“It’s a tough place to play. LSU needs this one badly, and the Tigers will be going all in.”
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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