Nationals leader Matt Canavan rejects pleas from Pauline Hanson’s chief of staff James Ashby to prioritize One Nation in preference deals for the Farrer by-election, accusing the party of internal disarray amid falling polls.
Ashby’s Call for Unity Against Labor
James Ashby urges the federal Coalition to partner with One Nation to defeat Labor, criticizing the decision to preference minor parties ahead of One Nation. “We see Labor as the enemy, not the Coalition,” Ashby states. He argues that One Nation’s conservative push has pulled the Liberals away from centrism and claims recent polls suggest mutual preferences could topple the government.
In Farrer, One Nation places Nationals second and Liberals third, while viewing teal, Climate 200, and GetUp!-backed candidates as major threats. Ashby dismisses poll fluctuations as normal, likening them to the stock market.
Canavan Highlights One Nation Struggles
Canavan focuses on securing Farrer and ousting the government, questioning One Nation’s organizational issues. He cites Hanson’s controversial comments on Muslim-Australians, the hiring and firing of convicted rapist Sean Black, and internal fights. “If they can’t work together as a party of five, how will they work as a party of 50?” Canavan asks.
Recent Resolve Political Monitor data shows One Nation support at 22% (down 1 point), Coalition at 23% (up 1), and Labor at 32% (up 3), less than three weeks before the by-election in former Liberal leader Sussan Ley’s seat.
Preference Strategies in Four-Way Race
The contest pits One Nation’s David Farley, independent Michelle Milthorpe, Liberal Raissa Butkowski (ballot position 1), and Nationals’ Brad Robertson. Polls position Milthorpe and Farley as frontrunners.
Nationals direct preferences to Liberals, then Family First, Gerrard Rennick’s People First, One Nation, and finally Milthorpe. Liberals prefer Nationals second, independent Roger Woodward third, then One Nation ahead of others, with Milthorpe near the bottom of the 12-candidate field.
Canavan predicts One Nation gains from major party voters if eliminated early, shrugging off complaints as mere “whingeing.”
Candidate Forum and Funding Buzz
At a Griffith Business Chamber forum, Farley addresses donations, including from mining magnate Gina Rinehart—a key One Nation backer—saying details are “above his pay grade.”
Expert Analysis on Ballot Impact
Australian National University professor Marija Taflaga notes Liberals’ top ballot spot offers a minor edge but unlikely to decide the outcome. “The Liberals or Nationals must finish first or second, or preferences flow to One Nation,” she explains. Results hinge on initial counts before preferences distribute.
