By ROBERT YOON, Related Press
WASHINGTON (AP) — The Structure makes it clear: “The Folks” get to choose these who’ll characterize their pursuits within the U.S. Home of Representatives.
However simply how carefully do these selections mirror the general political leanings of the folks? The query is on the coronary heart of an influence play in Texas, the place Republicans are attempting to reshape the state’s congressional boundaries to assist them preserve management of the Home in subsequent 12 months’s midterm elections.
In lots of circumstances, a state’s congressional delegation doesn’t align very carefully with what would appear to be the need of the voters, though that’s not at all times due to partisan gerrymandering.
Each state decides how to attract its personal congressional boundaries. Some, like California, depend on unbiased redistricting commissions, whereas most depart it to the state Legislature and the governor to hammer out a plan. It’s states the place one celebration controls all of the levers of presidency the place redistricting dramas just like the one in Texas usually play out as the bulk tries to maximise its energy.
Whatever the course of, the ensuing maps usually produce congressional delegations rather more lopsided in favor of 1 celebration than the state’s partisan demographics would possibly recommend.
A state’s presidential vote end result isn’t a exact software for measuring what its congressional delegation should seem like, however it will probably present a compelling level of comparability. Politicians incessantly cite it when decrying partisan redistricting practices they suppose are unfair.
President Donald Trump, who’s pushing Texas and different GOP-controlled states to redraw their maps, mentioned this week Republicans had been “entitled to 5 extra seats” in Texas based mostly partially on the scale of his win there in November. Trump gained 56% of the Texas vote, however Republicans already maintain 65% of the state’s congressional delegation — which might rise to 79% if the GOP’s new maps are adopted and previous voting patterns maintain within the subsequent election.
Throughout an occasion with Texas Democratic lawmakers in Boston, Missouri state Rep. Ashley Aune cited her state’s presidential vote ends in warning of doable Republican-driven redistricting efforts there.
“Fifty-eight p.c of Missouri voted for Trump, however they need to ship an 87% illustration to Congress,” mentioned Aune, a Democrat.
It’s truly pretty widespread for a state’s congressional delegation to not align with statewide presidential vote outcomes.
In 41 of the 44 states with a couple of congressional district, the celebration of the successful presidential candidate had a bigger share of the state’s congressional seats than its share of the presidential vote, an Related Press evaluation discovered. Typically, it was a a lot bigger share, a niche of a minimum of 10 share factors.
Right here’s a comparability of the congressional delegations and presidential vote ends in a sampling of states, together with a few of these contemplating a redraw of their congressional boundaries after Texas referred to as its particular session.
California and Illinois
In remarks to CNBC, Trump pointed to California and Illinois as justifications for redrawing the Texas map in Republicans’ favor.
“You discover they go to Illinois for security, however that’s all gerrymandered,” he mentioned in reference to the Texas Democrats who relocated to the Chicago space to dam, a minimum of quickly, the Republican redistricting efforts.
“California’s gerrymandered. We should always have many extra seats in Congress in California,” he mentioned.
He’s proper about Illinois: Democrats have gerrymandered the traces so that they maintain 14 of the 17 Home seats. Not so in California.
Democrats there do have an outsized majority, holding 43 of the state’s 52 Home seats, about 83%. Vice President Kamala Harris, a Democrat, acquired about 59% of the November vote. However that’s not due to Democratic gerrymandering. A poll initiative took the method away from state lawmakers and gave it to an unbiased residents fee.
California’s lopsided map is due partially to the best way like-minded folks cluster: California Democrats are likely to stay in and close to main cities that get extra congressional districts due to their inhabitants.
Florida
Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis scored a authorized victory in July when the state Supreme Courtroom upheld his congressional redistricting plan redrawing a district with a big Black inhabitants. That plan resulted in Republicans holding about 71% of the state’s 28 U.S. Home seats. Trump carried the state in November with 56% of the vote.
DeSantis later indicated there could also be extra “defects” within the map that have to be addressed earlier than the following census.
Republicans held an 18-7 benefit over Democrats in Florida’s Home delegation after the 2000 census. Democrats slowly narrowed the hole, reaching 13 seats to Republicans’ 14 after the 2018 election. However Republicans reestablished their benefit after the redistricting that adopted the 2020 census, once they reached the 20-8 break up they maintain immediately.
New York
Democrats have lengthy loved a bonus on the New York poll field in presidential and congressional elections. Harris acquired practically 56% of the vote in 2024, whereas Democrats maintain 73% of the state’s 26 Home seats.
With Democratic benefits in each chambers of the state Legislature, New York might need been a ripe goal for Democrats seeking to offset Republican redistricting positive factors in Texas and elsewhere. However they would wish to amend the state structure to conduct a brand new spherical of redistricting earlier than the following census. That constraint means the earliest Democrats might enact a brand new map could be for 2028.
North Carolina
North Carolina, among the many most carefully divided states, has been embroiled in its personal redistricting drama.
State Republicans carried out new Home boundaries in 2023 that turned a 7-7 congressional delegation into one during which Republicans took a 10-4 benefit with the 2024 elections. A number of districts at the moment are the topic of a federal lawsuit, with Democrats alleging Republicans illegally diluted Black voting energy.
North Carolina has been among the many best states within the final a number of presidential elections. Whereas Trump carried the state in November with about 51% of the vote, it has elected Democrats as governor and lawyer normal and to different statewide places of work.
Within the 2008 presidential election, Democrat Barack Obama narrowly edged Republican John McCain with 49.7% of the vote. The congressional delegation on the time mirrored that with an nearly even break up, with Democrats holding seven seats and Republicans six after the 2010 midterms.
However following rounds of Republican-controlled redistricting after the 2010 census, Republicans held a 10-3 or 9-4 benefit within the congressional delegation for the remainder of that decade.
After the 2020 census, a Democratic-majority North Carolina Supreme Courtroom threw out a Republican-drawn plan and permitted elections underneath a map adopted by trial judges that produced the 7-7 break up. The U.S. Supreme Courtroom allowed the boundaries for use within the 2022 elections.
After flipping to a Republican majority in 2023, the state Supreme Courtroom dominated partisan gerrymandering wasn’t outlawed by the state structure, permitting GOP lawmakers to redraw a congressional map in use immediately that led to their celebration’s 10-4 majority.
Minnesota
Minnesota is the state the place the congressional breakdown most carefully matches the 2024 presidential end result. Harris acquired 51% of that vote, in contrast with Trump’s 47%. Democrats and Republicans break up the state’s eight Home seats with court-imposed maps.
Nevada
Nevada, the place a Democratic Legislature drew the traces, is the one state the place the celebration of the successful presidential candidate is outnumbered by the opposite celebration within the state’s congressional delegation. Trump acquired 51% of the vote in Nevada, however Democrats maintain three of the state’s 4 Home districts.
Related Press author Leah Willingham in Boston contributed to this report.
Initially Revealed: August 8, 2025 at 10:52 AM PDT
