The race to Santa Clara for Tremendous Bowl LX is on! The common season is in our rearview mirror, and simply 14 groups are left standing as their hopes of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy proceed to burn.
What I discover completely fascinating about this postseason is that there actually isn’t any juggernaut, proper? Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs aren’t looming as an enormous trump card, and even the defending champion Philadelphia Eagles do not feel as large a risk as they have been throughout their title run a yr in the past. That leaves the league broad open for a group to come back in and snatch the throne, which ought to create a implausible postseason for us to observe unfold and wager on.
Talking of betting, I am nonetheless ready on a number of belated Christmas/Thank You playing cards within the mail from you guys after I gave you a Seahawks-Broncos to make the playoffs parlay at +362 earlier than Week 1. In fact, it might’ve been extra spectacular had I advised you to wager every of them to complete because the No. 1 seeds, however we’ll take what we will get.
In the event you learn my playoff prediction piece from earlier within the week, you know the way I believe this opening spherical goes to unfold. For many who missed it, I am going to provide you with my Tremendous Bowl decide right here and now: Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville Jaguars.
Let’s get to the Wild Card Weekend picks.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
2025 document
Playoffs
ATS: 0-0
ML: 0-0
Common season
Locks of the Week ATS: 48-42-0
ATS: 118-151-3
ML: 167-104-1
Prisco’s NFL Wild Card Weekend picks: Jaguars knock out Payments in shootout, Steelers upset Texans
Pete Prisco
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET (Fox | Fubo, attempt at no cost)
Laying double-digit factors within the playoffs, significantly on the highway, is a scary proposition. That mentioned, I believe the Carolina Panthers are a playoff group in title solely. Positive, they have been capable of beat these Rams of their constructing only a few weeks in the past, however I believe that had extra to do with Matthew Stafford melting down (three turnovers within the loss) than something particular Carolina was rolling out. In actual fact, I consider that defeat goes to zero in L.A.’s focus for this recreation, which removes the considered them presumably overlooking the Panthers and getting caught sleeping.
The Rams completed the common season with a +172 level differential, which was the second-best within the league. In the meantime, the Panthers had a -69 level differential, which is the third-worst by a division winner since 1970. That is why we’re seeing such a lopsided unfold, and I believe Stafford goes to come back out along with his hair on fireplace to attempt to redeem himself from that Week 13 clunker. Rams depart little doubt.
Projected rating: Rams 30, Panthers 17
The decide: Rams -10.5
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET (Prime Video)
After they break up the regular-season sequence and people two contests coming right down to the wire, it felt like we have been destined to have a rubber match between these NFC North rivals. Given the storied historical past of those franchises, I used to be shocked to be taught that this can solely be the third time they’ve squared off within the postseason, and, in fact, the all-time sequence is 1-1.
On this newest chapter, I’ve Chicago defending Soldier Discipline and advancing to the divisional spherical. Sure, I’ve questions on their protection, however being at house ought to assist easy issues out for them. The identical can’t be mentioned for Inexperienced Bay, as I believe this can be a powerful attract Spherical 1. Particularly, the truth that the Packers could not safe the NFC North title and are actually compelled to go on the highway may show to be the foremost X issue. This season, the Packers have surrendered 24.1 factors per recreation on the highway in comparison with the 17.9 factors per recreation they’ve given up at Lambeau Discipline. Over their four-game dropping streak starting in Week 15 (after they misplaced Micah Parsons to a torn ACL), the Packers have registered a league-low 4 sacks. If that continues and Caleb Williams works in a clear pocket, that’ll ship Matt LaFleur (3-5 in his playoff teaching profession) and the Packers packing.
Projected rating: Bears 27, Packers 20
The decide: Bears -1
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS | Paramount+)
This is perhaps the matchup I am most trying ahead to over Wild Card Weekend. On one aspect, you’ve gotten a Jaguars group that’s enjoying in addition to any membership within the NFL. Then again, you’ve gotten Josh Allen, who’s taking a look at doubtlessly his greatest likelihood at attending to the Tremendous Bowl with Mahomes, Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson all out of the playoffs. Nevertheless, the large drawback for Buffalo is that they have been unable to win the AFC East, which has them happening the highway this postseason as a wild card entry.
That is an enormous growth if you think about Sean McDermott and Allen’s highway playoff historical past. Allen is 0-4 on the highway in his playoff profession, whereas McDermott is 0-5. As a company, the Payments’ final highway playoff win got here again within the 1992 AFC Championship in Miami in opposition to the Dolphins. In the meantime, the Jags are stout at EverBank Stadium, ending the common season with a 7-1 straight-up house document.
As for the nitty-gritty of this recreation, I believe the Jaguars are well-equipped to assault Buffalo’s largest weak spot. The Payments gave up 5.1 yards per carry this season, which was the third-worst mark in the complete NFL. Jacksonville has proven an eagerness to run the soccer when given the chance, so this may very well be a powerful day on the bottom for Travis Etienne. Buffalo turns into a shocking one-and-done.
Projected rating: Jaguars 30, Payments 24
The decide: Jaguars +1.5
Sunday, 4:30 p.m. ET (Fox | Fubo, attempt at no cost)
I will be sincere, I do not give both of those groups a massively excessive ceiling for the time being. If every have been firing on all cylinders, that’d be a special story, and I might let you know that both may win the Tremendous Bowl. Nevertheless, the Niners are banged up, and I nonetheless have my questions on Philadelphia’s offense actually discovering its rhythm. One factor that I do belief is the Eagles protection making life tough for Brock Purdy. Even when the Niners QB has his left deal with Trent Williams (hamstring) and high wideout Ricky Pearsall (knee) again for this recreation, neither shall be 100%. As we noticed within the Week 18 matchup in opposition to Seattle, San Francisco’s offense could also be a bit of little bit of a home of playing cards on account of damage.
One different factor we noticed in that regular-season finale in opposition to the Seahawks was that you could run on this Niners protection. Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet mixed for 171 yards and a landing on a 5.1 yards-per-carry common. If that development continues, Saquon Barkley may show to be the MVP of this recreation and preserve Philly’s hopes of repeating alive for a short time longer.
Projected rating: Eagles 24, 49ers 20
The decide: Eagles -3.5
Sunday, 8 p.m. ET (NBC)
This was admittedly the toughest recreation of the weekend for me to pin down. On the one hand, the Patriots are unproven and, whereas Drake Maye and Mike Vrabel put collectively seasons worthy of MVP and COY honors, it’s important to level out how simple their schedule was. New England’s power of schedule was the simplest within the NFL since 1999. The final time a group noticed as simple a schedule, Tom Brady was nonetheless at Michigan! Whilst you cannot fault the Patriots for enjoying and defeating the groups the NFL put in entrance of them, it does carry up the query of what occurs when the extent of competitors will increase, like it’ll within the postseason. That is the place the Pats may run into a sort of resistance they have not felt fairly but.
Whereas I believe that’ll are available in later rounds, I do not consider that’ll be the case on Sunday evening. Why? I’ve many extra questions surrounding Justin Herbert’s capability to ascend within the playoffs. The Chargers QB is 0-2 in his playoff profession, they usually’ve been some fairly damming defeats. The primary noticed Herbert and the Chargers blowing a 27-0 result in the Jaguars throughout the 2022 playoffs. The second got here final yr when he threw 4 interceptions in a loss to Houston after tossing simply three picks over the complete common season. Till Herbert reveals me one thing totally different, I am going to fade him.
Projected rating: Patriots 24, Chargers 20
The decide: Patriots -3.5
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN, ABC | Fubo, attempt at no cost)
The Pittsburgh Steelers are like a cockroach throughout a nuclear explosion. By some means, they survive. Even when it appeared like they have been about to be bounced from the playoffs within the ultimate seconds, Baltimore’s Tyler Loop missed the game-winning 44-yard discipline objective, and the AFC North crown fell onto their heads. However that is form of what Pittsburgh does, proper? The Steelers remarkably discover their method into the playoffs, solely to be one-and-done after they get there. I believe we’re about to see that very same components play out earlier than our eyes on Monday evening.
Whereas the Steelers will get DK Metcalf again after his two-game suspension, Houston’s protection could also be too large a hurdle to beat for Aaron Rodgers. The Texans protection ranked No. 1 within the NFL in whole yards per recreation (277.2), No. 2 in factors per recreation allowed (17.4), and No. 3 in takeaways (29). The unit was additionally second within the league in stress fee. That has a recipe for the Steelers offense to be beneath siege all through the competition. In the meantime, did you see how open Baltimore’s receivers have been getting down the sphere in Week 18? Certainly, C.J. Stroud can discover Nico Collins and his different cross catchers on a few deep photographs to construct up a cushion and pull off the upset.
Projected rating: Texans 28, Steelers 20
The decide: Texans -3.5
