The NFL Combine is all about draft prospects, but don’t take for granted how many agents, coaches and general managers are talking about free agency and potential trades. Decision-makers are forming plans (and backup plans) around the quarterback position in Indianapolis this week.
So let’s take a crack at projecting those plans.
It’s not an easy offseason to find a quarterback, and so the matchmaking isn’t clean — or even attractive — in every case. The Las Vegas Raiders are set to fill their vacancy in the NFL Draft with Fernando Mendoza. But other teams will almost certainly have to rely upon a veteran. So here’s where those veterans could land.
This is an early look at where I think the QBs will land — and a ranking based on how well I think they’ll perform in 2026.
New home: Miami Dolphins
Smith’s tenure in Las Vegas was messy. And that’s being generous. But remember that — just the season prior — he was leading the league in passing yards for the Seattle Seahawks. He’s still a good player. He’s not the type of player who can exceed his circumstances. Miami is rebuilding, and the Dolphins aren’t exactly an exciting place to land. But Smith isn’t in an exciting place in his career either. So this marriage happens by necessity.
After a forgettable year in Las Vegas, can Geno Smith revive his career again elsewhere? (Photo by Candice Ward/Getty Images)
New home: Minnesota Vikings
If coach Kevin O’Connell had the choice between Aaron Rodgers and Cousins, it wouldn’t be an easy choice. Rodgers’ game is eroding. Cousins showed signs of renewed life. Rodgers is currently the better player, but probably has only one more year in him. Cousins is a plug-and-play fit in the system — and has a runway of 3-4 years. Ultimately, the Vikings have to operate as if J.J. McCarthy isn’t the answer. And so I think they pounce on Cousins, the all-around safer pick (compared to Rodgers and McCarthy). Cousins will get O’Connell’s system humming again.
New home: Indianapolis Colts
OK, so the Colts technically wouldn’t be new for Jones, who is a free agent and could end up in a handful of spots. But he and the Colts want to work on a long-term deal, per NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero. So it’s a matter of when — not if — Indy locks him down as its QB. I’m not sure how Jones will look when he returns from his Achilles injury. I’m not sure how long it’ll take him to recover — or if he can even play in 2026. I’m also not sure how Shane Steichen and Chris Ballard’s job security will look. But apparently, Jones will almost certainly sign a Colts contract this offseason. So that’s where I’ll place him. In the meantime, Indy needs someone else who can start in Week 1. And it’ll have to be someone who won’t get Steichen or Ballard fired. So …
New home: Indianapolis Colts
The Dolphins are going to do everything they can to part ways with Tua. There are massive salary-cap complications, but it seems like Miami’s new coach Jeff Haffley wants to start anew at the position. So I suspect Miami will either cut Tua with a post-June 1 designation — or trade him while eating most of his salary. (Generally, a QB’s salary passes to the next team in a trade, but in this case, the Dolphins will have to pay most of it, because otherwise, no one would trade for Tua.)
Cutting Tua Tagovailoa would leave the Dolphins with a record dead-cap hit. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images)
But here’s the thing with Tua … because he’s set to make so much money from Miami, I think he’ll pick a place that prioritizes on-field support (rather than finances). That’s where the Colts present a unique opportunity. They wouldn’t pay him much, but they could insert Tua into an excellent offense for somewhere between 8-17 games. This offense helped a long retired Philip Rivers look serviceable on the fly, after all. So Tua shows up for the Colts and shows the league he can still play. And Jones takes over when he’s healthy. It’s not great to be a placeholder. But Tua is almost certainly looking at a QB2 job if he doesn’t bite at a bridge job like Indy’s.
New home: Atlanta Falcons
Kevin Stefanski is a really good fit for Jones. And the Falcons offense has enough weapons to support the QB, who — everyone can plainly see — isn’t a world-beater. Jones doesn’t have a no-trade clause, but I suspect the 49ers will help him land in the right place. In Atlanta, there’s enough to like and enough to feel optimistic about. Quarterback Michael Penix poses a threat, but a small one, given he’s a remnant of the past regime. Jones could find himself in the right place at the right time to do what Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield and Geno Smith have all done: reinvent themselves.
New home: New York Jets
Murray finished the season on injured reserve, and the new Cardinals regime (led by coach Mike LaFleur) is not going to keep him, per NFL Network.
I hope that Aaron Glenn and Frank Reich are the guys that Murray needs to find a new tier to his development. Murray plateaued in Arizona, where — for reasons currently unknown — he couldn’t find the degree of consistency that is an absolute requisite for a franchise QB. My sense is Murray is overly preoccupied with the big play. I also think there is evidence that he was often under-prepared. (Whether that’s on the coaching staff or on him, I don’t know.) Maybe he can shed his bad habits in New York.
Will the Cardinals be able to trade Kyler Murray or be forced to release him? (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)
2. Aaron Rodgers
New home: Arizona Cardinals
Here’s a weird one, because this is clearly the third-best destination. But I suspect Rodgers is going to stall his decision past the point of the Steelers’ patience. Remember: Rodgers takes his offseason decisions slowly, often after free agency and the draft. If he retires late in the offseason, it would leave his team without a QB. And this isn’t an offseason where the Steelers can afford to wait for Rodgers to come out of an ayahuasca-driven darkness retreat. So when he emerges, he’ll see the Steelers have a new QB. But something tells me that the Cardinals will be interested in him.
Arizona’s new coach Mike LaFleur is Matt LaFleur’s brother, and of course, Matt coached Rodgers in Green Bay. While it wasn’t always the happiest marriage, it was telling that Rodgers stood up for Matt when his job security came under fire. I think that might have built a bridge between Rodgers and the LaFluer family that could land the QB in Arizona for 2026.
1. Malik Willis
New home: Pittsburgh Steelers
There’s no better fit for Willis than in Pittsburgh. That’s largely because of the combination of DK Metcalf, Jaylen Warren and Mike McCarthy. It would be a nice core to build around. But it’s also clearly not enough. The Steelers need to keep investing in their roster, which coach Mike Tomlin elevated into playoff contention every year. There just wasn’t enough for Rodgers to work with last year. Willis’ dual-threat skills could upgrade the unit — even before they add more talent at the OL and playmaker spots. But that shouldn’t stop them from filling in an offensive unit that looked threadbare during Metcalf’s absences.
