NFL Week 15: Chiefs on brink as playoff races tighten earlier than Falcons-Bucs

Welcome to the Thursday version of the Choose Six publication!

I by no means thought I would write these phrases whereas Patrick Mahomes was nonetheless within the NFL, however right here we’re: The Kansas Metropolis Chiefs might be eradicated from playoff competition this week.

With the NFL season all the way down to its remaining 4 weeks, we’re devoting a while right this moment to the playoff image. Not solely are we protecting the elimination situations for the Chiefs, however we’re additionally wanting on the three groups that may CLINCH a postseason berth this week (no crew has clinched but). Plus, we’ve got picks and greatest bets for tonight’s Falcons-Buccaneers matchup.

As all the time, here is your reminder to inform all your mates to join the publication. Let’s get to the rundown. 

1. Thursday evening preview: Picks and greatest bets for Falcons at Buccaneers

At 7-6, the Buccaneers are at the moment tied atop the NFC South with the Panthers, they usually cannot actually afford to slide up right here towards a Falcons crew that has misplaced seven of its previous eight video games. The Falcons have already been eradicated from the playoff race, in order that they don’t have anything on the road, however they’ll definitely have the prospect to play the function of spoiler if they will pull off an upset.

So can the Bucs keep away from the upset? 

• Why the Falcons can win: The Falcons must cease overthinking issues and simply give the ball to Bijan Robinson. The Falcons star working again has topped 140 complete yards in 5 video games this 12 months, and Atlanta is 3-2 in these video games (1-7 in all others). This matchup ought to make it straightforward to maintain Robinson concerned, principally as a result of the Buccaneers protection has given up 701 receiving yards to opposing working backs, probably the most within the NFL. Atlanta wants to make sure Robinson is a focus in each the working and passing recreation.
• Why the Buccaneers can win: With Baker Mayfield banged up, that is the proper recreation for Tampa Bay to lean on its dashing assault. With Bucky Irving again, the Bucs are at full energy on the bottom, and the Falcons have not stopped the run properly (131 rush yards allowed per recreation, backside 10 within the league). Tampa Bay might additionally get Mike Evans again — he is questionable after lacking the previous six video games with a hamstring damage — and if he is energetic, it is a main increase. In three full video games this season, Evans has averaged 4.7 catches for 46.7 yards.

Jared Dubin has a full preview of the sport, and you possibly can verify that out right here.

When you’re eager about betting on the sport, listed here are a few props (odds by way of DraftKings Sportsbook):

• ONE WR PROP I LIKE: Mike Evans OVER 3.5 receptions (+107): Not solely is the quantity low, however we’re additionally getting plus cash. Courting again to final season, Evans has gone over 3.5 receptions in 10 of his previous 11 video games. The lone miss got here when he injured his hamstring early in Week 4 and did not return. If he is wholesome and performs 4 quarters, he nearly looks like a lock to hit 4 catches.
• ONE KICKING PROP I LIKE: Zane Gonzalez OVER 7.5 factors (+129): Gonzalez has performed 5 video games with the Falcons and has averaged 7.8 factors. He is topped 7.5 in three of his previous 4. Since Kirk Cousins took over, the Falcons have had one of many worst red-zone offenses within the league, which generally means extra subject objective makes an attempt.

When you’re questioning how my props are doing this 12 months, I am 30-28 (13-14 on kicker props and 17-14 on all different props). And now, it is time for some picks. 

PICKS FOR ‘TNF’

Pete Prisco’s decide: Buccaneers 27-20 over Falcons
Tyler Sullivan’s decide: Buccaneers 27-20 over Falcons
Jordan Dajani’s decide: Buccaneers 27-20 over Falcons
Jared Dubin’s decide: Buccaneers 24-13 over Falcons
My decide: Falcons 23-20 over Buccaneers

NOTE: I did not mess that up — Prisco, Sullivan and Dajani all picked the SAME FINAL SCORE. I simply checked and you may truly guess on the Bucs profitable 27-20. The chances are +9000, so a $10 guess would win you $900. I may need to do it and share not one of the winnings with them.

We have got extra picks for the sport on our CBSSports.com predictions web page. 

2. Chiefs might be eradicated from playoff competition this week: This is the way it might occur

The Chiefs have by no means missed the playoffs throughout Patrick Mahomes’ profession, however that run is at risk of ending and it might occur as quickly as Sunday. At 6-7, Kansas Metropolis is on the cusp of playoff elimination.

Listed below are the three most believable situations:

1. Chiefs loss (vs. Chargers) + Jaguars win (over Jets) + Payments win (over Patriots) + Texans win (over Cardinals). The Jaguars (-13.5) and Texans (-9.5) are enormous favorites, and whereas the Payments opened as a favourite, they’re now 1.5-point underdogs. If the Payments need any shot at profitable the AFC East, they must beat New England, in order that they’ll be further motivated. If Kansas Metropolis loses, this looks like probably the most reasonable elimination path.

2. Chiefs loss + Jaguars win (over Jets) + Payments win (over Patriots) + Colts win (over Seahawks). The Colts simply misplaced Daniel Jones for the season, and there is a good likelihood they’ll be beginning Philip Rivers on Sunday, who simply got here out of retirement after 4 years away. The Colts are 13-point underdogs in Seattle, so for this situation to occur, Indy must pull off an enormous upset.

3. Chiefs loss + Payments win (over Patriots) + Colts win (over Seahawks) + Texans win (over Cardinals). Just like the second situation, this additionally includes a 44-year-old Rivers main the Colts to an upset over the Seahawks, which looks like an extended shot. 

If the Chiefs beat the Chargers on Sunday, there is not any method they are often eradicated in Week 15. Though the Chiefs are on the cusp of elimination, they might additionally nonetheless make the playoffs. 

3. NFL Week 15 picks: Patriots and Broncos each go down

It is now time for everybody’s favourite a part of the publication, which is the place I spherical up three NFL writers — Pete Prisco, Jordan Dajani and Tyler Sullivan — and we attempt to impress you by nailing all of our picks. Final week, I assumed the opposite three guys have been getting just a little too cocky, so I calmed them down by embarrassing them. I went 10-4 towards the unfold in Week 14, which was waaaaaaay forward of Prisco, who went simply 6-8 (Sullivan and Dajani completed in between us).

Anyway, you most likely know the way our predictions work by now: I will offer you one Week 15 decide from every author after which hyperlink you to the remainder of their picks. That method, for those who like their decide, you possibly can click on over and take a look at all of their Week 15 alternatives.

• Pete Prisco — Payments (-1.5) 30-28 over Patriots. “The Patriots are coming off a bye, whereas the Payments are coming off a come-from-behind victory over the Bengals. Josh Allen was Josh Allen in that one, and that is the best way it needs to be for the Payments to win. He wasn’t the final time these groups met, which is why the Patriots received. This time will probably be completely different. Allen wins it along with his typical huge performs.” Prisco’s full Week 15 picks are right here. 
• Tyler Sullivan — Seahawks (-13.5) 30-16 over Colts. “If Philip Rivers will get the beginning nod, Sunday will mark 1,800 days between begins. In fact, that is a whole lot of time, and anticipating Rivers to one way or the other maintain it shut towards a Seattle protection that ranks second in factors allowed (17.4), yards per play allowed (4.5), and third-down charge (33%) appears too tall a process. As fascinating as Rivers’ comeback story is true now, it might be spoiled by halftime and downright unhappy by the fourth quarter.” Sullivan’s full Week 15 picks are right here. 
• Jordan Dajani — Bengals 35-33 over Ravens. “The Ravens have misplaced two straight, and given the division lead again to Pittsburgh. The Bengals would have defeated the Payments final week if it weren’t for that mind-blowing fourth-quarter collapse, however that is Joe Burrow’s first recreation again enjoying in entrance of his residence followers, and Lamar Jackson has not seemed like himself just lately. For these causes, give me the Bengals in a wildly entertaining affair.” Dajani’s full slate of picks will probably be launched on Friday, however you can get a preview right here. 
• John Breech — Packers (-2.5) 20-16 over Broncos. “We have now two of the highest defenses within the NFL dealing with off, which suggests there is a 50% likelihood that the ultimate rating goes to be 3-0. Once I see a scenario like this the place the 2 prime defenses are enjoying one another, I have a tendency to select the crew that has the quarterback who I belief extra, and proper now, that is Jordan Love.” You’ll find the remainder of my Week 15 picks right here. 

For extra Week 15 NFL picks, you possibly can try our CBSSports.com picks web page. 

4. Joe Burrow’s weird birthday press convention

Wednesday was Joe Burrow’s twenty ninth birthday, however he wasn’t in any temper to have a good time. The Bengals quarterback despatched town of Cincinnati into a light panic when he made some fascinating feedback about his want to play throughout his weekly press convention.

Let’s check out a couple of of the important thing exchanges that went down throughout the 15-minute session.

Does getting back from a critical damage change your aggressive hearth in any respect to exit and win? How does the toe damage perhaps change the best way you view the sport?

“It definitely does not change my want to win. If I need to maintain doing this, I’ve to have enjoyable doing it. I have been by way of rather a lot, and if it is not enjoyable, then what am I doing it for? That is the mindset I am making an attempt to carry to the desk.”

How a lot enjoyable are you having proper now? Is it tough to have enjoyable given the season and what you have been by way of bodily and emotionally?

[One-word inaudible answer.]

Successful is all the time enjoyable, however generally, was it as enjoyable earlier than you bought harm?

“I would not say I seen it that method.”

What was the turning level?

“I am unsure there was a singular second. It is only a reflection on a whole lot of issues I’ve carried out and been by way of in my profession. I feel I have been by way of greater than most, and it is definitely not straightforward on the mind or the physique, so I am simply making an attempt to have enjoyable doing it once more.”

Is there a stage of frustration you are coping with proper now? You appear to be there’s one thing in your thoughts.

“There’s a whole lot of issues occurring proper now.”

Soccer-related or private?

“The entire above.”

What’s it like balancing your well-being vs. wanting to come back again as shortly as potential?

“It is one thing it’s important to take into consideration. That is life as knowledgeable athlete. It is no completely different in basketball, MMA or baseball. It is what we selected. We make a whole lot of sacrifices and your physique is usually one in every of them.”

I used to be on the press convention, and Burrow undoubtedly sounded just a little down within the dumps. That being mentioned, it ought to be famous that after the Bengals misplaced to the Payments on Sunday, Burrow seemed like somebody who deliberate on enjoying soccer so long as potential. “I like what I do and I’ll proceed to do it.” 

You’ll be able to learn extra about Burrow’s fascinating feedback right here. You can too watch the video of his most fascinating solutions right here.

5. NFL playoff-clinching situations for Week 15: Three groups can safe a postseason spot

There are 14 playoff spots within the NFL, and NONE OF THEM have been clinched but, which marks the primary time in 11 years that we have made it to Week 15 with out a single spot being clinched. Nonetheless, that might change this week, and that is as a result of there are three groups that might find yourself punching their ticket to the postseason: the Broncos, Patriots and Rams. 

There are a number of playoff clinching situations this week, however we’re simply going to try the best one for every crew. 

PATRIOTS (11-2)
Best path: If the Patriots need to clinch their first playoff berth in 4 years, all they must do is beat the Payments. In the event that they pull out the win on Sunday, they will clinch the AFC East, which suggests they will be assured a minimum of one residence recreation within the playoffs. 

BRONCOS (11-2)
Best path: The Broncos have not made the playoffs in consecutive seasons since Peyton Manning was in Denver, however that might change this 12 months. This crew bought within the postseason final 12 months, and in the event that they need to clinch a return spot, all they must do is beat the Packers. 

RAMS (10-3)
Best path: The Rams can clinch a playoff spot on Sunday with a win over the Lions. Not solely would Matthew Stafford get revenge on his outdated crew, however he’d put the Rams within the postseason for the fourth time in his 5 years with the crew. 

If you wish to try all 13 clinching situations, together with those that contain ties, you are able to do that right here. 

6. Further factors: Philip Rivers might truly begin this week

It has been a busy 24 hours within the NFL, and because it’s practically not possible to maintain monitor of all the things that occurred, I went forward and put collectively a roundup for you. 

• Colts may truly flip to Philip Rivers on Sunday. Rivers has solely had one apply with the Colts this week, however there’s nonetheless an opportunity he might begin towards the Seahawks. “We’ll see how the week goes,” Colts coach Shane Steichen mentioned Wednesday. “We’ll get to the top of the week and make that call.” The excellent news for Rivers is that he is not studying a brand new offense. When Rivers was with the Chargers, Steichen was his QB coach for 4 seasons (2016–19), so he is aware of what Steichen likes to do. Rivers defined this week why he determined to return, and you may try his reply right here.
• NFL returning to Munich in 2026. The league introduced that Munich will host a recreation subsequent season, marking town’s third NFL recreation after internet hosting in 2022 and 2024. The NFL now has 5 worldwide video games set for 2026 — one in Munich, one in Melbourne (Australia), one in Rio de Janeiro and a minimum of two in London.
• Lions and Falcons will each host a global recreation. For the fourth time in six seasons, the Falcons will probably be headed overseas in 2026. The crew introduced they will be serving as the house crew in a global recreation subsequent 12 months, though they did not announce the place they’d be enjoying. Final month, the Falcons misplaced to the Colts in a recreation that was performed in Berlin. In additional worldwide information, the Lions will even be serving as the house crew in a global recreation for the 2026 season, in accordance to the Detroit Free Press. We additionally know the Rams would be the residence crew for the sport in Australia. Every NFC crew will probably be enjoying 9 residence video games subsequent 12 months, so you possibly can guess that we’ll be seeing NFC groups internet hosting many of the worldwide video games. The one AFC which may host can be the Jaguars.