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What was essentially the most surprising outcome from NFL Week 5? Was it the Denver Broncos handing the Philadelphia Eagles their first loss? No, we had them +4.5. Was it the New England Patriots defeating Josh Allen on his dwelling turf? No, we had them +8.5. How about Trevor Lawrence main a game-winning drive towards the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs? No, we had them +3.5.
Sure, we had some nice wins final week, however all jokes apart we additionally had some stunning losses. My money cow (any workforce taking part in the Tennessee Titans) has been milked dry, the Washington Commanders confirmed as much as SoFi Stadium and whooped the Los Angeles Chargers, and I tried to fade future NFL MVP Baker Mayfield. By no means once more.
Here is a take a look at what I am considering this week. As at all times, credit score to the CBS Sports activities analysis workforce for making me sound good.
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
High 5 picks ATS report: 10-15
Total ATS report: 46-32
Straight up report: 51-26-1
Denver Broncos (-7) vs. New York Jets (London)
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET (NFL Community, Stream: Fubo, strive at no cost)
The Jets are the lone winless workforce within the NFL, and they’re now tasked with taking part in the squad that simply handed the Eagles their first lack of the season. The Broncos offense has been a bit inconsistent via 5 weeks, however this Vance Joseph protection has recorded essentially the most pressures within the NFL with 89. The Jets offense however has allowed essentially the most pressures within the NFL with 95. Nik Bonitto has as many sacks (seven) because the Jets’ total workforce.
Favorites of seven or extra factors in worldwide video games are 8-2 ATS, and the winners of worldwide video games have lined the unfold in 18 straight. Bo Nix is 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS in his profession when favored by three or extra factors. Go Broncos.
The decide: Broncos -7
Projected rating: Broncos 24-13
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Stream on Paramount+)
Dillon Gabriel performed OK in his first NFL begin, finishing 19 of 33 passes for 190 yards and two touchdowns towards the Minnesota Vikings. Nevertheless, the Steelers at dwelling recent off their bye is a unique type of take a look at. Mike Tomlin’s protection didn’t play very properly to start the 12 months, however they might have gotten on observe towards the Vikings in Dublin. Pittsburgh has now registered 10 takeaways this season, which ranks No. 2 within the NFL.
Tomlin can also be 26-6 in his profession vs. rookie quarterbacks, which ranks second-best among the many 23 head coaches with 15 or extra video games coached vs. rookie signal-callers since 1970. The Browns have misplaced 11 straight video games away from Cleveland, and common simply 14.6 factors per recreation, which is tied for worst within the NFL. T.J. Watt goes to be a difference-maker on this recreation.
The decide: Steelers -5.5
Projected rating: Steelers 20-10
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, Stream: Fubo, strive at no cost)
The Rams are offended following their Thursday loss to the rival San Francisco 49ers, and they’ll take out their anger on what I presume will likely be a Lamar Jackson-less Ravens workforce that simply fell to the Houston Texans, 44-10.
I count on Baltimore will get a pair different items it was lacking final week again, however how a lot will that basically assist? This protection ranks second-worst in yards allowed per recreation (408.8) and lifeless final in scoring protection (35.4 factors per recreation). This secondary has allowed 4 passing touchdowns with zero interceptions in two straight video games, whereas Matthew Stafford leads the NFL in passing yards per recreation (300.6). He has gone two straight video games with 375 passing yards, three passing touchdowns and 0 interceptions!
The decide: Rams -7.5
Projected rating: Rams 27-17
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, Stream: Fubo, strive at no cost)
The two-3 Panthers are undefeated at dwelling this season, and simply got here again from down 17 factors to beat the Miami Dolphins this previous Sunday, which tied the biggest comeback win in workforce historical past. Rico Dowdle exploded for a career-high 206 yards speeding, and now will get an opportunity to tee off towards his former workforce. Nevertheless, I believe the Cowboys are simply the higher squad.
The Cowboys are one of the vital “enjoyable” groups within the NFL. What do I imply by that? Properly, they rank No. 1 in whole yards per recreation (406.6), and lifeless final in yards allowed per recreation (412.0). Meaning the Panthers are going to attain some factors, however I believe Dallas can out-score Bryce Younger.
Dak Prescott is taking part in at an MVP degree proper now, as he leads the league in passing completions with 139, ranks second in passing yards with 1,356 and is tied for third in passing touchdowns with 10. I will again him on the highway vs. a workforce the Cowboys are positively three factors higher than.
The decide: Cowboys -3
Projected rating: Cowboys 28-20
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, Stream: Fubo, strive at no cost)
The Cardinals are coming off an embarrassing loss to the beforehand winless Titans, wherein they blew a 15-point lead within the fourth quarter. Jonathan Gannon received so upset with operating again Emari Demercado that the workforce needed to fantastic him for his actions on the sideline. The Cardinals have misplaced three straight video games, and now, quarterback Kyler Murray is coping with a foot harm that prompted him to overlook observe on each Wednesday and Thursday.
As for the Colts, they’ve been one of the vital constant groups within the NFL in a season that has been outlined by parity. Daniel Jones‘ offense has scored factors on 65% of drives, which is the very best fee via 5 video games by any workforce up to now 25 seasons, and the Colts are the one workforce within the NFL to rank high 5 in each scoring offense and scoring protection. Indy seems to be nice, and defeated the lowly Las Vegas Raiders by 34 factors final week. At dwelling for the second straight recreation, I say Shane Steichen can cowl the unfold vs. his former teaching buddy.
The decide: Colts -7.5
Projected rating: Colts 30-17
Different Week 6 picks
Seahawks (+1.5) 21-20 over Jaguars
Chargers (-4.5) 21-14 over Dolphins
Patriots 23-20 over Saints (+3.5)
Raiders (-4.5) 20-13 over Titans
Buccaneers (-3) 26-21 over 49ers
Packers (-14.5) 35-20 over Bengals
Lions (+2.5) 31-27 over Chiefs
Payments (-4.5) 30-24 over Falcons
Commanders (-4.5) 35-23 over Bears
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