An professional on Hamas’s financial system says Gaza’s civilian outflow is now a strategic drawback for the phobia group. As morale sinks and prices spike, extra residents are leaving, diminishing Hamas’s leverage.
A rising wave of departures from Gaza Metropolis, pushed by collapsing morale and worry of getting nothing to return to, is eroding a core pillar of Hamas’s struggle technique, Hamas financial system professional Eyal Ofer advised Maariv on Monday.
He mentioned the shift is unfolding throughout Gaza as households weigh repeated evacuations, widespread destruction, and worth shocks that make staying untenable.
Over the previous two years, many Gaza Metropolis residents have traced the identical route 3 times, Ofer mentioned, transferring from Gaza to Rafah, again to Gaza, and now once more south. In contrast to the early wartime flight and the reduction felt by some who returned throughout January’s hostage deal, he mentioned, a part of the inhabitants has reached a breaking level.
As proof, Ofer cited sharp spikes in transferring prices reported on Gaza Telegram and X channels. Truck charges from the Rimal neighborhood to the south have jumped to three,000–4,000 shekels, up from about 1,500 shekels solely days earlier, he mentioned.
Residents pointed to gasoline costs to elucidate the surge, Ofer famous. With a liter of gasoline close to 100 shekels and a spherical journey requiring hours and about 10 liters, gasoline alone can value roughly 1,000 shekels. Within the south, residences are scarce and costly, with some listings at 8,000 shekels a month and plots for tents reaching 1,000 shekels.
“The social solidarity that also existed in Gaza is disappearing,” he mentioned, describing a market the place “virtually everybody who can revenue from the scenario does so.” After seeing the destruction in northern areas akin to Shejaiya and Rafah, some households doubt they’ll have properties to return to and due to this fact transfer with as lots of their belongings as attainable.
Hamas’s calculus below strain
Ofer mentioned he warned a 12 months in the past that Hamas’s heart of gravity rests on “residence and other people.” Whereas the IDF focuses on focused strikes and tunnel shafts, Hamas is deeply involved about civilians leaving with out plans to return, he argued, since residents serve the group as human shields or as imagery for its info marketing campaign.
Based on Ofer, Hamas-run authorities have pushed a “don’t evacuate” message by way of official statements, solid flyers, threats, and movies of demonstrations. As strikes reached coastal tent areas, 1000’s of pedestrians joined the southbound visitors jams of vans, signaling that the marketing campaign to maintain folks in place is shedding traction.
The open query and strategic threat
In a earlier spherical, about 350,000 folks stayed in northern Gaza. In the present day, Ofer estimated, roughly twice that quantity stay, crowded right into a smaller space in western Gaza Metropolis, and the important thing query is what number of will select to remain at any value. “Conflict is first a contest of will,” he mentioned, including {that a} continued civilian outflow would additional undercut Hamas’s leverage.
“On social media, many Gazans already plead: ‘Simply open the Rafah crossing. From there, we’ll handle on our personal.’”
