Western Australian Premier Roger Cook has pledged to heed the “brutal message” from voters following a significant by-election result in Secret Harbour, where One Nation secured its first-ever Lower House seat in the state. The victory for Pauline Hanson’s party marked a historic upset, with preliminary results showing One Nation leading Labor 57-43 percent after three-quarters of the votes were tallied on Saturday night.
One Nation’s Historic Victory and Labor’s Response
The mood at the One Nation gathering was jubilant as supporters celebrated the monumental win, a stark contrast to the somber atmosphere within the Labor camp. While not yet conceding defeat, the incumbent party acknowledged the challenging night, occurring just 17 months after a substantial general election victory. Premier Cook, accompanied by senior ministers and federal representatives, addressed the party faithful, emphasizing the government’s commitment to understanding voter sentiment.
“By-elections are tough for incumbent governments, we all know that,” Premier Cook stated. “This one is no different. But we have a responsibility as a party of government, as the incumbent government, to deal with that and not to shirk from it.” He characterized One Nation as a party focused on “grievance” and contrasted it with Labor’s approach of “delivery” and tackling difficult tasks. “Regardless of the outcome tonight, we will listen,” he affirmed.
Cook lauded the Labor candidate, Ms. Tree, and reiterated the government’s commitment to commencing construction on the Karnup train station in 2028. He urged supporters to channel any disappointment into renewed determination. “Soak up the atmosphere of a team that is potentially facing disappointment, seize those emotions and build on them. Let us galvanise ourselves for the fight of the future. Be ready to come back and do it all again on Monday,” he rallied. He also framed the political landscape as a “coalition between One Nation and Basil Zempilas,” referring to the Opposition Leader, and reminded his party of its core values of equity and a fair go.
Candidate’s Resolve and Policy Commitments
Ms. Tree, described by the Premier as a “fighter,” expressed her determination to continue advocating for the Secret Harbour community, irrespective of the final vote count. She thanked her family and campaign team, acknowledging the intense nature of the campaign. “It has been a fight, so close tonight that we don’t have a result,” Ms. Tree commented. “We always knew this was going to be a possibility, because every single moment of this campaign has been a fight. But we have never given up.”
Reflecting on personal experiences, Ms. Tree highlighted the importance of public services, particularly healthcare. “We’re building a new hospital in Mandurah, that’s something I feel very deeply about,” she said. “My mum’s chemo was free and that meant my family wasn’t bankrupted by that.” She drew a contrast with One Nation’s perceived political leanings, stating, “They want to bring Trump here, we don’t want that. We love our health system, we love our life here, we want to protect that.”
Shifting Political Landscape and Future Implications
The by-election results signal a significant shift in the state’s political dynamics. One Nation’s primary vote saw a dramatic increase, jumping from 8 percent in the 2025 state election to an impressive 39 percent in this contest. Conversely, Labor experienced a substantial swing against it, losing 18 percent of its vote, with its primary vote falling below 25 percent. The Liberal party also saw its vote share decline to 17 percent, a result that some within the party had feared could be worse.
Opposition Leader Basil Zempilas acknowledged the outcome, stating that while his party had “fought a very good fight,” the result was a concession. The implications of this by-election extend beyond the immediate electorate. The result could raise concerns for federal Liberal member Andrew Hastie, whose seat of Canning significantly overlaps with the Secret Harbour area. Hastie had previously expressed apprehension about the Liberal campaign’s perceived weakness.
Resources Minister Madeleine King addressed potential concerns about One Nation targeting her federal seat, stating that while all politicians are under scrutiny, One Nation faces less scrutiny in by-elections than in general elections. “But if there’s a general election, state or federal, that’s when they come under scrutiny,” she remarked.
Analysis of the Vote Swing
The swing against Labor in Secret Harbour is a notable development, particularly given the party’s strong performance in the previous general election. The surge in One Nation’s vote share suggests a growing appeal for the party’s platform, which often focuses on populist themes and opposition to established political norms. The decline in the Liberal vote further complicates the opposition landscape in Western Australia.
Political analysts will be closely examining the factors contributing to this shift, including voter dissatisfaction with the incumbent government, the effectiveness of One Nation’s campaign messaging, and the broader political climate. The result serves as a wake-up call for the major parties, highlighting the need to connect with voters on key issues and address concerns that may be driving support towards minor parties.
Looking Ahead: Government and Opposition Strategies
Premier Cook’s commitment to listening and “doubling down” on government commitments indicates a strategy to regain voter confidence by demonstrating responsiveness and continued delivery of services. The focus on infrastructure projects like the Karnup train station aims to reassure constituents of the government’s long-term vision for the region.
For the Opposition, the Secret Harbour result provides a potential springboard. However, the challenge will be to consolidate this success and translate it into broader electoral gains. The dynamic between One Nation and the Liberal party, as alluded to by Premier Cook, will likely be a key factor in how the opposition shapes its strategy moving forward.
The by-election outcome in Secret Harbour underscores the volatile nature of contemporary politics and the importance of understanding and responding to the evolving concerns of the electorate. Both major parties and the rising force of One Nation will be analyzing this result intensely as they prepare for future electoral contests.
