Within the ultimate sport of Week 5 of the NFL season, the Jacksonville Jaguars host the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs on “Monday Night time Soccer.”
Jacksonville enters this sport at 3-1, having gained back-to-back video games after a relatively embarrassing come-from-ahead loss in opposition to the Bengals in Week 2. The Jags simply cannot cease forcing turnovers defensively, and it is helped them stack early-season wins within the first few video games of the Liam Coen period.
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Kansas Metropolis enters at 2-2 after successful back-to-back video games following a tough begin to the season. The Chiefs seemed nearly as good as they’ve all yr in dismantling the Baltimore Ravens final week, however additionally they seemed fairly abnormal in these first three video games, so there are questions on which model of the staff is the “actual” one.
Will the Chiefs recover from .500 for the primary time this season, or will the Jaguars knock them down one other peg? We’ll discover out quickly sufficient. However earlier than we break down the matchup, this is a have a look at how one can watch the sport.
The place to observe Jaguars vs. Chiefs reside
- Date: Monday, Oct. 6 | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Location: EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville)
- TV: ESPN | Stream: Fubo (attempt free of charge)
- Observe: CBS Sports activities App
- Odds: Chiefs -3.5; O/U 45.5 (through DraftKings Sportsbook)
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When the Chiefs have the ball
Kansas Metropolis’s offense lastly received on observe in a giant method final week in opposition to the Ravens, going off for a season-high 382 yards and 37 factors. The Chiefs had totaled simply 60 factors by way of the primary three video games of the season, so that they almost doubled their per-game output in opposition to Baltimore.
Second-year large receiver Xavier Worthy’s return from damage was integral to their success. Worthy made a number of huge performs of his personal as he led the staff in each dashing and receiving yards, and he performed a key function in stretching the sector in order that gamers like Travis Kelce and JuJu Smith-Schuster might discover holes within the beneath zones of the Ravens protection.
The Chiefs face a tougher check in Jacksonville’s protection than they did in opposition to Baltimore. The Jaguars have been a turnover-forcing machine to date this season, accumulating an unimaginable 13 takeaways throughout their first 4 video games. They’ve stifled opposing dashing assaults alongside the best way (3.9 yards per carry); their go rush, led by Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker, has been wonderful; and the secondary (particularly free-agent acquisition Jourdan Lewis) is plastering issues on the again finish.
A giant query right here is whether or not Walker can be wholesome sufficient to play on Monday night time. The Jaguars listed him as questionable regardless of the actual fact he had wrist surgical procedure final week. He returned to observe with a forged on his wrist and would probably play with a membership, if out there. Head coach Liam Coen mentioned the staff will take the choice right down to the wire. If he is out, that is clearly a major blow to Jacksonville up entrance, and it might assist the Chiefs tremendously of their efforts to guard Patrick Mahomes.
Whether or not Walker is lively or not, it appears unlikely that Kansas Metropolis will get a lot happening the bottom. The Jaguars have been wonderful in opposition to the run, whereas Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt have been operating in mud for many of the season. (They’ve mixed for ONE run of 12 yards or extra to date this yr.) The Chiefs have expressed an curiosity in getting rookie Brashard Smith extra concerned within the proceedings to offer a component of explosiveness, however the technique of bringing him alongside has been pretty gradual.
It’ll subsequently fall — simply because it has for many of this season already — to Mahomes and Co. to seek out cracks in a go protection that has proven little of them thus far. The Chiefs determine to ramp up Worthy’s workload much more after he performed round 61% of the snaps final week, and his capability to threaten the protection each vertically and in catch-and-run conditions will once more be the important thing to the passing assault. The Chiefs constructed their early-season passing sport round Worthy’s talent set and the best way it opens issues up for the opposite members of the pass-catching corps, and we must always anticipate that to proceed on Monday night time.
The Jaguars do not have anybody as quick as Worthy of their secondary, however additionally they do not ask their defensive backs to play man-to-man that usually anyway. They play zone at one of many highest charges within the NFL (almost 82%, per Tru Media), and determine to make use of an identical tactic right here as they attempt to power Mahomes to matriculate the ball downfield with quick completions by taking away the deep stuff. However the Chiefs, greater than nearly every other staff, are used to seeing that tactic, and so they’re skilled in making an attempt to fight it.
When the Jaguars have the ball
A lot of Jacksonville’s offensive success this season has come on the bottom. Liam Coen, who was the architect of one of many league’s finest run video games final yr in Tampa Bay, has introduced that success with him to his first head-coaching gig.
The Jaguars have been pretty environment friendly within the run sport (eleventh in dashing success fee, per Tru Media), with a key being their capability to keep away from unfavourable runs (fifth in unfavourable run fee on operating again carries) whereas persistently gaining medium-chunk positive aspects (ninth within the fee of runs that achieve 5 or extra yards). They have not hit on that many explosives, however they ones they’ve hit have gone for large positive aspects, largely by Travis Etienne, who has rushes of 30, 48 and 71 yards to date this season.
All of that works in Jacksonville’s favor in opposition to Kansas Metropolis, which ranks twenty fifth in opponent’s dashing success fee to date this season. Opposing groups are averaging the sixth-most yards earlier than contact per rush in opposition to the Chiefs, in addition to the ninth-most yards after contact per rush. The Chiefs have usually contained explosive performs (solely 4 rushes of 12 or extra yards), however the bend-don’t-break type has been susceptible to these five-yards-a-pop kind of runs which were Jacksonville’s bread and butter thus far (opponents have clipped these off on the second-highest fee within the league, per Tru Media).
The Jaguars’ passing sport hasn’t been fairly as profitable. Trevor Lawrence has accomplished solely 58.3% of his passes at a median of 5.9 yards per try. He is been inaccurate at a excessive fee and, when he is thrown precisely, his receivers have been tormented by drops or points like slicing off their routes when they need to simply proceed operating.
The reference to Brian Thomas Jr. has been offline all season, as BTJ has caught simply 12 of 32 passes thrown his method for 164 scoreless yards. Thomas has been taking part in with a wrist damage, however he is additionally been one of many huge culprits relating to the drops and the not finishing routes. Travis Hunter hasn’t been fairly as concerned as anticipated early on, as he is usually been taking part in round 55% of the offensive snaps and nearly all of his targets have come inside a number of yards of the road of scrimmage. The Jags have but to totally unlock his potential as a playmaker.
Lawrence will probably take care of a heavy dose of blitzing for one of many first occasions this season. He is been blitzed at one of many lowest charges (20.7%) within the NFL, per Tru Media, however the Chiefs have blitzed at one of many highest (31.9%). These Kansas Metropolis blitzes had been remarkably profitable final week in opposition to the Ravens, and if they’ll equally get to Lawrence — who ranks twenty sixth within the league in EPA per dropback in opposition to the blitz throughout the final two seasons — then it is going to be a troublesome night on the workplace for the Jaguars’ passing sport.
One space the place he might make some hay, although, is as a runner. The Chiefs have gotten a fairly respectable quantity of strain this yr, however as a result of they’ve had to make use of additional rushers in an effort to do it, they’ve been susceptible to scrambles at the next fee than another defenses.
Prediction
The Jaguars come into this sport with a greater file than the Chiefs, however they’ve additionally toed a really robust line to get wins these final two weeks. They might simply have misplaced each video games regardless of forcing a mixed seven turnovers. Can they proceed taking the ball method at a excessive sufficient fee that a few of their relative offensive struggles get masked? Possibly, however I would not guess on it. Kansas Metropolis has some matchup benefits right here, so we’re rolling with the Chiefs to get the win on the street.
Choose: Chiefs 27, Jaguars 17
