Chart of the Week: Outbound Tender Quantity Index, Outbound Tender Rejection Index – USA SONAR: OTVI.USA, OTRI.USA
The nationwide Outbound Tender Quantity Index (OTVI) — which measures truckload demand — hit an all-time low for the month of October final week, registering a price of 9,311. This locations the index roughly 19% decrease than final 12 months and 15% beneath 2023 for a similar interval. Usually, a collapse of this magnitude would set off a corresponding drop in tender rejections and spot charges. Nonetheless, almost the alternative has occurred: rejection charges (OTRI) are greater than each 2023 and 2024 ranges, whereas spot charges have moved erratically over the previous two weeks however trended largely upward. This implies that capability is leaving the market sooner than demand is declining — however let’s dive deeper.
A typical query folks ask is, “What number of vans are on the street?” Whereas intuitive, that’s an incomplete query. There may very well be 1,000,000 vans out there for 500 hundreds, and we might nonetheless face a capability downside if these vans aren’t in the best locations. This kind of imbalance occurs often, even in well-supplied markets, although the results are normally short-lived.
The rise of freight brokers and cargo boards has improved service visibility and connectivity with out there freight. These instruments speed up market response instances, which might make charges unstable within the brief time period however assist forestall extended capability shortages.
Almost each service community operates out of steadiness. Carriers are continually repositioning gear from markets with extra inbound freight to these with higher outbound demand. Southern California is the quintessential instance of this imbalance.
In Los Angeles, the Outbound Tender Quantity Index (OTVI) constantly exceeds the Inbound Tender Quantity Index (ITVI). With out carriers deliberately driving in empty — or “deadheading” — this market would shortly run out of obtainable vans.
Carriers compensate by charging greater charges for hundreds leaving undersupplied markets like Los Angeles (often known as headhauls) and decrease charges for freight leaving oversupplied markets (often known as backhauls).
Some of the well-known backhaul markets is Lakeland, Florida, the place tender information signifies almost twice as a lot outbound freight as inbound freight. This imbalance is why charges from central Florida are sometimes among the many lowest within the nation.
Over the previous 18 months, long-haul demand — outlined as hundreds shifting greater than 800 miles—has fallen about 30% year-over-year. A lot of this decline is because of freight shifting towards rail and intermodal service. With many shippers pulling stock ahead and lengthening home supply timelines, the urgency to maneuver freight by truck has diminished.
Intermodal presently presents near-record financial savings in comparison with trucking, making it a simple alternative for shippers who can use it. However this shift has disrupted connectivity between areas, making trucking extra regionalized and tougher to keep up as a nationwide community. In consequence, the market has grow to be extra susceptible to demand spikes in long-haul lanes.
This development is displaying up within the information: long-haul tender rejection charges (LOTRI) climbed to 12.5% this month, the best since Could 2024. At the moment, a wave of sudden West Coast imports — pushed by issues over maritime service stability — brought about a short lived surge in rejections. The newest surge had no accompanying quantity.
Latest crackdowns on immigrant and non-domiciled drivers may additionally be contributing to tightening situations. California, a frequent goal of Trump administration enforcement efforts, has seen extra scrutiny than different states, suggesting regional political bias in regulatory actions.
Whereas there’s a case to be made that current redoubling of efforts by ICE on the trucking sector could also be an element lately, it’s onerous to say that it has been the case all 12 months lengthy. Rejection charges elevated and not using a related improve from demand in July and August earlier than falling again in September. That is extra supportive of service community challenges than regulatory exercise.
Spot charges from Los Angeles to Chicago — a lane that competes closely with intermodal—have been more and more erratic all through 2025 and trending greater since Could. Anybody working on this lane on the transactional facet has probably skilled rising inconsistency in out there capability.
FMCSA information analyzed by Provider Particulars exhibits capability continues to exit the market at a fast tempo. This information is extra reflective of the multi-year freight downturn than ICE raids and regulatory strain. The added pressure from the federal government helps to exacerbate the results of the lengthy operating freight recession and making it much less susceptible to the worsening demand facet economics.
The FreightWaves Chart of the Week is a chart choice from SONAR that gives an fascinating information level to explain the state of the freight markets. A chart is chosen from 1000’s of potential charts on SONAR to assist individuals visualize the freight market in actual time. Every week a Market Professional will publish a chart, together with commentary, reside on the entrance web page. After that, the Chart of the Week can be archived on FreightWaves.com for future reference.
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