Why Russia’s Putin and Syria’s Sharaa agreed to satisfy after a decade of battle

Russia clearly needed to pivot to work with Sharaa. It probably prolonged feelers way back, recognizing HTS as a possible accomplice, even after a decade of preventing in Syria.

Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa journeyed to Russia on Wednesday for essential conferences with Russian President Vladimir Putin. For many individuals who’ve adopted the Syrian civil battle and its aftermath, the assembly appeared extraordinary and sudden.

Russia was a key ally of the Assad regime. Moscow views Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the group that Sharaa led in Syria, as terrorists. However, it additionally seems that Moscow has been hedging its bets for years.

Russia intervened in Syria in 2015. It supported the Assad regime towards the Syrian rebels. The rebels had been principally Sunni Arabs, they usually had backing from the West, in addition to Turkey, Jordan, and different international locations.

Moscow needed to shore up the Assad regime and shield its bases in Syria.

Syria has been an ally of Russia for many years, an alliance that dates from the Soviet period. Due to this fact, Syria is an asset for Moscow.

Russia determined over time to work with Iran and Turkey to handle the battle in Syria.

Tehran was backing Assad. Actually, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Pressure commander Qasem Soleimani, who was killed by the US in 2020, is credited with convincing Russia to intervene extra closely in Syria.

Turkey was ostensibly at odds with Russia. Over time, nevertheless, Putin was in a position to work with Ankara and even promote it Russia’s S-400 air-defense missile system.

As such, Turkey agreed to mainly weaken the Syrian rebels and co-opt them so that they wouldn’t go on the offensive.
Ankara used the rebels it co-opted to combat the Kurds, launching assaults on Afrin, a primarily Kurdish metropolis in northern Syria, in 2018 and assaults on the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a Kurdish-led coalition of US-backed militias and rebels, in jap Syria in 2019.

Russia, Turkey, and Iran all agreed they needed the US out of Syria. They excluded the US from the Astana Course of that they labored on for Syria, a sequence of conferences that started in Astana, Kazakhstan, in 2016.

By the point 2024 rolled round, it appeared the Assad regime was cemented in energy. However Israel’s battle towards Hezbollah final 12 months from September till November weakened the Iranian-backed group.

Russia was prepared to let Assad fall

This eliminated a key pillar of help for Assad, as a result of he had relied on Hezbollah fighters for assist. HTS, the Sharaa-led group in Idlib, northwestern Syria, then launched an offensive in late November final 12 months. By December 8, the Assad regime had fallen, and Assad was on his solution to exile in Moscow.

It now seems that Moscow was prepared to let Assad fall, and it needed to pivot shortly to work with the brand new regime in Damascus.

It desires to maintain its bases in northwest Syria. In return, it could actually provide Syria with oil and in addition assist Damascus with ties to international locations which are near Moscow.

SYRIA IS working with either side. It desires ties with the West as nicely.

Sharaa says he is able to develop strategic ties with Russia.

The assembly in Moscow “addressed bilateral relations between Syria and Russia and methods to strengthen strategic cooperation throughout varied sectors,” Syrian Arab Information Company (SANA), Syria’s official information company, reported. “In the beginning of the assembly, President Al-Sharaa emphasised the deep historic ties between the 2 international locations, noting that Syria is getting into a brand new part wherein it seeks to rebuild its political and strategic relations with regional and world powers, primarily, the Russian Federation.”

Sharaa stated: “Syria and Russia share a long-standing historic relation, together with bilateral ties and mutual pursuits in a number of fields, together with Syria’s power sector, which closely depends on Russian experience… We respect all previous agreements and are working to redefine the character of those relations in a means that ensures Syria’s independence and nationwide sovereignty.”

Putin stated Russia–Syria relations date again greater than 80 years. Actually, there are 4,000 Syrians presently learning in Russia.

Putin praised Syria’s current elections.

“The elections had been a serious achievement, serving to unify society regardless of the delicate situations Syria is going through,” he stated.

Putin additionally talked about the Russian-Syrian Joint Governmental Committee, which “was launched in 1993 and not too long ago resumed its actions underneath the management of Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak,” SANA reported.

“President Al-Sharaa was accompanied on his go to to Moscow by International and Expatriates Minister Asaad Hassan Al-Shibani, Protection Minister Main Common Murhaf Abu Qasra, Common Intelligence Chief Hussein Al-Salama, and

Presidency Secretary-Common Maher Al-Sharaa,” the report stated. “This marks President Ahmad Al-Sharaa’s first go to to Russia. It follows a go to by International Minister Asaad Hassan Al-Shibani to Moscow final July, throughout which he met together with his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov. In September, President Al-Sharaa additionally acquired a high-level Russian delegation in Damascus led by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak to debate methods to reinforce cooperation and develop bilateral relations throughout varied fields in service of each nations’ pursuits.”

Sharaa and Putin go from enemies to allies

Russia clearly needed to pivot to work with Sharaa. It probably put out feelers way back and understood that HTS may very well be a potential accomplice.

Many individuals can’t perceive this as a result of they see HTS roots in al-Qaeda, they usually suppose Russia’s said intention in Syria was to combat “terrorists.” They will’t perceive additionally how Syrian rebels, who had been bombed for a decade by Russia, can be prepared to go to Moscow.

However, historical past teaches that allies can turn out to be enemies, and enemies can turn out to be allies. Historical past is stuffed with such examples, together with: US president Richard Nixon going to China; the consistently altering alliances in Europe that noticed international locations switching sides shortly over the 18th and nineteenth centuries; Russian cavalry using all the best way to the outskirts of Paris to push Napoleon from his throne; 100 years later, Russia and France going to battle as allies towards Germany.

Occasions change. What Moscow understands is that issues can change in a short time.