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When it comes to March Madness first-round odds, the public betting masses love to jump on underdog moneylines, pulling for some outright upsets.
Which No. 12 seed will beat a No. 5 seed? Will there be an even bigger upset than that? Perhaps a 13 or a 14 beating a 4 or a 3?
Or will a No. 1 seed — this year, that’s Duke, Michigan, Arizona and Florida — join Virginia and Purdue in ignominy, as the only top seeds to ever lose in the first round?
But judging by what Caesars Sports is seeing so far, bettors are less enthusiastic about underdogs in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
“Historically, in the first couple rounds, the betting public looks into underdogs,” Caesars’ head of college basketball trading Rich Zanco said Tuesday. “But this year, they’re laying into the favorites. They think the numbers aren’t high enough.”
Zanco and sharp college basketball bettor Paul Stone serve up their insights on March Madness first-round odds, heading into the biggest multi-day sports betting event in America.
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Playing Favorites
Specifically, Zanco pointed out three first-round favorites on the move in NCAA Tournament odds.
“They’re predominantly laying into Kansas, Iowa State and Gonzaga,” he said.
No. 4 seed Kansas is 23-10 straight up (SU)/20-13 against the spread (ATS). The Jayhawks opened as 12-point favorites and are up to -14.5 vs. No. 13 seed California Baptist (25-8 SU/20-13 ATS).
That matchup tips off at 9:45 p.m. ET Friday.
No. 2 seed Iowa State (27-7 SU/21-13 ATS) jumped from -22 to -25, then settled at -24.5 vs. No. 15 seed Tennessee State (23-9 SU/18-11 ATS). Tipoff is at 2:50 p.m. ET Friday.
And No. 3 seed Gonzaga (30-3 SU/18-15 ATS) went from -18.5 to -20.5 vs. No. 14 seed Kennesaw State (21-13 SU/16-16 ATS). Game time is 10 p.m. ET Thursday.
“We’ve got multiple No. 2 and No. 3 seeds that are north of 24.5-/25-point favorites,” Zanco said, noting those teams are normally in the range of 19- or 20-point favorites.
No. 2 Houston is -23.5 vs. No. 15 Idaho, up from a -22 opener, for a 10:10 p.m. ET Thursday game. And No. 3 Illinois is -24.5 vs. No. 14 Penn, after opening -21.5 for Thursday’s 9:25 p.m. ET tipoff.
Are 12s Alive vs. Fives?
The 12 vs. 5 matchups are perennially popular games, with the public consistently buying into the narrative of No. 12 seeds notching upsets. This year, that’s the case in two of the four matchups.
“High Point is getting moneyline action vs. Wisconsin,” Zanco said, though he added that he expects the Badgers will be well-backed on the point spread by Thursday’s 1:50 p.m. ET tipoff. “The betting public figures to be on the favorite.”
Wisconsin (24-10 SU/20-14 ATS) is a 10-point favorite at Caesars, down from an -11.5 opener. If you’re thinking upset, High Point is +360 on the moneyline, meaning a $100 bet would profit $360 if the Panthers win outright.
Zanco said No. 12 seed McNeese (28-5 SU/14-17 ATS) is also getting support to land an upset vs. No. 5 seed Vanderbilt (26-8 SU/18-16 ATS). The Cowboys are +430 on the moneyline and 11.5-point underdogs on the spread for Thursday’s 3:15 p.m. ET tip.
No. 12 seed Northern Iowa (23-12 SU/19-15 ATS) is completely overshadowed by surging No. 5 seed St. John’s (28-6 SU/19-15 ATS), ahead of Friday’s 7:10 p.m. ET start.
“Especially with the dominant performance St. John’s had in the Big East Tournament,” Zanco said, specifically noting the Red Storm’s 73-52 rout of UConn in the final.
St. John’s is a 10.5-point favorite vs. Northern Iowa.
“It’s one-way traffic on that game right now. There’s not much at all on the ‘dog,” Zanco said.
No. 12 seed Akron (29-5 SU/17-15 ATS) also isn’t getting moneyline support to upset No. 5 seed Texas Tech (22-10 SU/17-15 ATS). However, the Zips are drawing respected play on the point spread for a 12:40 p.m. ET Friday game.
“Some of the sharper bettors looked to bet Akron. They took +9 and +8, and we got down to 7.5,” Zanco said.
March Madness Sharp Side
Texas-based handicapper Paul Stone has seen the line come down for High Point vs. Wisconsin. Getting the favorite at a better number is intriguing.
Stone pointed out that the Badgers (24-10 SU/20-14 ATS) have road wins this season over Michigan, Illinois and Purdue, while playing the 18th-toughest schedule in the nation. On the flip side, High Point (30-4 SU/15-16 ATS) has a schedule strength near the bottom of Division I, at No. 342.
Stone looks for Wisconsin to dispose of High Point by double digits and cover the number.
“High Point’s record is impressive, but Wisconsin will be the first Power Five opponent it’s faced all season,” Stone said. “The Badgers can shoot the 3-pointer, and both teams like to play fast. I look for Wisconsin to win big.”
Sunshine State Stakes
Florida is the defending national champion and is certainly in the hunt again this year. So the Gators will be a popular play during the NCAA Tournament.
But Zanco also noted strong first-round action on two other Sunshine State teams.
“There’s action coming in on Central Florida, for whatever reason. They grabbed +7 with UCF,” Zanco said. “I’d say also South Florida. The Bulls have been a trendy pick all season.”
No. 11 seed USF (25-8 SU/18-14 ATS) takes the court first, vs. No. 6 Louisville (23-10 SU/15-18 ATS at 1:30 p.m. ET Thursday. The Cardinals opened as 6-point favorites and initially climbed to -6.5. But as of Tuesday night, Louisville was down to -5.
No. 10 UCF (21-11 SU/16-16 ATS) meets No. 7 UCLA (23-11 SU/17-17 ATS) at 7:25 p.m. ET Friday. The Bruins opened -7 and are down to -5.5.
Built for the Futures
It’s not just the games getting bet in March Madness odds. So too are NCAA Tournament championship futures, which have been on the board since Florida beat Houston in the 2025 championship game.
Zanco noted a trio of teams Caesars would prefer not to cut down the nets on April 6.
“We’re against Illinois. The wiseguys have been on Illinois all year,” he said. “Illinois, St. John’s and Michigan are certainly no good for us.”
The Wolverines spent much of the season as the favorite in Caesars’ national championship odds and are now the +350 second choice.
As for championship outcomes on the plus side of Caesars’ ledger:
“Arizona is a good one for us again. The Wildcats have been good for us the last four or five years. Maybe this is the year they figure it out,” Zanco said. “Duke is not fantastic for us, but good.”
Duke is the +295 favorite and Arizona the +425 third choice to win the NCAA Tournament.
Arkansas and Purdue are getting a lot more attention this week in March Madness futures, thanks to impressive conference tourney titles.
Arkansas made a three-game run in the SEC Tournament, beating Vanderbilt 86-75 in the final. Purdue one-upped the Razorbacks, winning four games in four days to take the Big Ten crown, capped by an 80-72 upset of Michigan.
“They’re betting Arkansas and Purdue the last 72 hours. You can understand why,” Zanco said.
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