As the racing world gears up for a significant Saturday at Newbury, expert analysis points towards Almekarem as the horse to watch in the highly anticipated Dubai Duty Free Handicap. The three-year-old colt, trained by Sir Mark Prescott, currently leads the betting for the prestigious race, scheduled to be broadcast live at 2:27 PM. This strong market position comes despite a recent 5-pound increase in his handicap rating following a commanding victory in a 17-runner handicap at Doncaster’s St. Leger meeting.
Key Contenders and Handicapper’s Influence
The Dubai Duty Free Handicap at Newbury presents a competitive field, with several runners having seen their weights adjusted by the handicapper due to recent strong performances. Boyfriend is another notable contender who has been penalized following a series of positive runs. Meanwhile, Balzac appears to have recaptured his best form, evidenced by a runner-up finish at Ascot earlier this month, a performance that followed his gelding.
Other horses drawing attention include Gonna Fly, a partnership between jockey Rossa Ryan and trainer Ralph Beckett. Additionally, Stem, ridden by Jamie Spencer, will be looking to build on a promising third-place finish at Sandown in its last outing. These contenders highlight the strategic importance of handicapping in determining the race’s dynamics.
Expert Picks and Reasoning
The panel of racing experts shared their insights and predictions for the Newbury handicap, with differing opinions on the likely outcome. The consensus, however, leans towards Almekarem’s potential.
Declan Rix’s Analysis
Declan Rix expressed confidence in his prediction, stating, “I think I know how this race is going to work out, even though there are plenty of runners lining up for this year’s renewal. I think you need one that will settle behind this strong pace and I am going to side with Almekarem after he landed a nice handicap at Doncaster last week.” Rix elaborated on Almekarem’s capabilities, noting, “The horse has got gears, with the family having plenty of progression with triple-digit-rated siblings. He heads the market, but I think he is on a rapid improve and can take the beating on the back of a good performance last week.” His assessment emphasizes Almekarem’s speed, breeding, and current upward trajectory.
Kate Tracey’s Selection
Host Kate Tracey has put her faith in Stem, trained by Richard Hannon. “I am with the Richard Hannon-trained Stem, who I think is a little bit forgotten about here,” Tracey commented. She highlighted Stem’s previous performance in the competitive Spring Mile at Newbury, noting, “He ran well and the form of that race has worked out throughout the season.” Tracey also pointed to the distance change as a potential advantage: “He’s running over 10 furlongs after being ran over eight [and 12] furlongs [so far this season]. I think he has every chance of running his race and at 8/1, I think he’s a solid proposition at those odds.” Her view suggests Stem is an overlooked contender with a strong chance at favorable odds.
Sam Boswell’s Value Play
Sam Boswell is looking for value further down the betting with Merveilleux Lapin, trained by Owen Burrows. “I’m siding with a winner of the Polish Oaks – which isn’t something I say every day – in Merveilleux Lapin for Owen Burrows,” Boswell announced. He described the filly as, “She has been largely consistent since joining the yard without winning and I think she’s a shade over priced here.” Boswell acknowledged her recent strong competition, stating, “She bumped into some progressive types at Ascot last time.” While noting that the Burrows stable’s form hasn’t been as dominant recently, he pointed to a recent winner at Yarmouth as a positive sign. “At 16/1, she will probably be the value play for me,” he concluded, identifying Merveilleux Lapin as his top value selection.
Broader Racing Context
Beyond the Dubai Duty Free Handicap, the discussion touched upon other races and broader themes in the sport. One commentator, in a separate segment, suggested that jockeys like Saffie Osborne simply need more opportunities to showcase their talent. This sentiment underscores the ongoing conversation about jockey development and access within the racing industry.
Conclusion
As the weekend unfolds, all eyes will be on Newbury for the Dubai Duty Free Handicap. While Almekarem enters the race as the favorite, backed by strong form and expert opinion, the competitive nature of the event means that contenders like Stem and potential value picks such as Merveilleux Lapin cannot be discounted. The race promises to be a thrilling spectacle, showcasing the unpredictable excitement of horse racing and the strategic depth of handicapping.
