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The race for NFL MVP has seemingly been whittled down to three quarterbacks, with potential first-time winners Drake Maye and Matthew Stafford battling last year’s winner, Josh Allen, for the award.
However, an interesting candidate among the non-quarterbacks is Seattle Seahawks receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba. With Sam Darnold falling off the radar after his four-interception performance in a close loss to the Los Angeles Rams, Smith-Njigba has emerged as the most impactful player in Seattle’s continued chase for the top spot in the NFC West.
Looking at the raw numbers, Smith-Njigba has separated himself as the top receiver in the league. He’s No. 1 in receiving yards at 1,148 — over 200 yards more than George Pickens at 908 yards. Smith-Njigba is on pace to hit 1,948 receiving yards by the end of the season, which would be second all-time in NFL history behind Calvin Johnson’s 1,964 receiving yards.
The Ohio State product has been Seattle’s most dominant player. His 37.2% target share is tops in the league. Smith-Njigba leads the league in catches of at least 20 yards (19) and 40-plus yards (6), highlighting his big-play ability.
But what has been most impressive is Njigba’s transition from a slot receiver last year to a pass catcher who can consistently win on the perimeter. Smith-Njigba led the league with 956 receiving yards (with five touchdowns) when aligned in the slot in 2024, per Next Gen Stats. This season, Smith-Njigba leads the league with 984 receiving yards (with five touchdowns) when aligned out wide, showing that he’s a complete receiver who can win from anywhere on the field.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s teammate, Cooper Kupp, won the receiving triple crown in 2021, but didn’t take home MVP, showing how tough it is for non-quarterbacks to win the award. (Photo by Soobum Im/Getty Images)
However, working against Smith-Njigba’s MVP candidacy is the fact that his teammate, Cooper Kupp, won the receiving triple crown in the 2021 season and still didn’t get the award. The then-Rams receiver finished third in MVP voting that year despite leading the league in receptions (145), receiving yards (1,947) and receiving touchdowns (16).
Kupp wound up leading the Rams to a Super Bowl victory later that year, taking home Super Bowl MVP for his performance in the win. Aaron Rodgers won his fourth MVP over Kupp that season.
DraftKings Sportsbook has Smith-Njigba at +10000 to win MVP. Matthew Stafford moved into the top spot at +135, followed by Drake Maye +185, Josh Allen +475 and Jonathan Taylor +800. Patrick Mahomes’ odds tumbled to +1900 after the Kansas City Chiefs‘ road loss to the Denver Broncos, dropping the Chiefs to 5-5 on the year.
Let’s take a closer look at my top five for MVP Watch heading into Week 12.
The North Carolina product keeps answering the bell every week, and the Patriots keep winning. New England made quick work of the Jets, with Maye posting 281 passing yards and a score. The impressive thing for Maye has been how comfortable he looks in the pocket and his decisiveness under pressure.
Drake Maye leads the league in passing after Week 11, with the Patriots holding a 9-2 record.. (Photo by Logan Bowles/Getty Images)
Maye has completed 60.4% of his passes for 965 yards, with eight touchdowns and two interceptions when pressured, leading the NFL with a 107.6 passer rating, according to Next Gen Stats.
Odds to win MVP: +185
2. Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams (Last week: No. 2)
Stafford didn’t have to do much in his team’s 21-19 home win over the Seahawks because of Darnold’s miscues. However, with Stafford’s 130 passing yards and two touchdown passes, Stafford has now thrown a touchdown in 10 games in a row this season, the fifth-longest active streak in the league.
Stafford has also done a nice job of taking care of the football. He has just two interceptions this year and has not thrown an interception in his last 243 pass attempts (seven games), the most attempts and games without an interception in Stafford’s career.
Odds to win MVP: +135
3. Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts (Last week: No. 3)
Coming off the bye week, Taylor and the Colts face an important game on the road against the Chiefs, who are holding teams to 100 yards per game (No. 9 in the NFL). With 17 total touchdowns through 10 games, Taylor is on pace to score 29 touchdowns this season, which would fall two short of the NFL record of 31 set by LaDanian Tomlinson in 2006, who won the MVP award that season.
However, Taylor’s 17 touchdowns are more than three teams this year: the Raiders (16), Saints (15) and Titans (12).
Odds to win MVP: +800
4. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seattle Seahawks (Last week: Unranked)
Smith-Njigba’s 28-yard, one-handed catch against the Rams was the latest highlight reel from a dominant year in his third season. The play was a great example of how much confidence Darnold has in throwing to Smith-Njigba and how much trust he has in his hands.
Smith-Njigba has just one drop in 97 targets this season after totaling eight drops in his first two seasons in the league, according to Next Gen Stats.
Odds to win MVP: +10000
5. Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills (Last week: Unranked)
With their chances of winning the AFC East slipping, the Bills have gone back to letting Allen carry the load offensively. Allen finished with 317 yards and three touchdowns and added three rushing touchdowns in the Bills’ 44-32 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Allen now has 75 rushing touchdowns, tying him with Cam Newton for the most rushing touchdowns by a quarterback in the regular season in NFL history. Allen tops all quarterbacks this season with 10 rushing touchdowns and is second in rushing yards with 351.
Odds to win MVP: +475
Honorable mention: Jared Goff, Lamar Jackson, Jordan Love, Christian McCaffrey, Patrick Mahomes.
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Eric D. Williams has reported on the NFL for more than a decade, covering the Los Angeles Rams for Sports Illustrated, the Los Angeles Chargers for ESPN and the Seattle Seahawks for the Tacoma News Tribune. Follow him on X at @eric_d_williams.
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