The 2025 college football season is nearing the home stretch, and there’s still a lot to be determined when it comes to the playoff race.
In one of the episodes of my podcast, “The Joel Klatt Show,” this week, I predicted what the 12-team College Football Playoff field will look like. Saturday could help determine the field, as there are a few teams playing for their CFP lives against ranked opponents this weekend. It’s also the last slew of games before the first CFP rankings of the season.
As we preview what will happen in Week 10, I’ll be in Columbus for another edition of the classic matchup between Penn State and Ohio State.
Now, let’s make some picks!
We all thought this game was going to be massive entering the year — maybe a top-five matchup or even a battle between Nos. 1 and 2. Alas, it isn’t. Penn State went cold, fired head coach James Franklin and is entering “The Shoe” on a four-game losing streak. Never thought I’d see that with Penn State. Meanwhile, Ohio State is undefeated and No. 1 by a wide margin in the AP poll. The Buckeyes have been the most dominant and complete team this season.
That said, Penn State is going to come into this game with nothing to lose. Fake kicks, trick plays and dialing up on defense might all be in play. I think this is a kitchen sink game for the Nittany Lions because … why not? They’re not in the running for the Big Ten title game or a CFP berth, but they’re still playing for pride. Let’s not be buried under a rock here and not at least acknowledge that PSU still doesn’t have one of the most talented rosters in the country. The Nittany Lions shouldn’t have four losses, but they were all determined by a score, so they’re not a bad team.
Ethan Grunkemeyer will be at quarterback for Penn State, and what a two-game baptism it is for him. He started at Iowa a couple of weeks ago and now has Ohio State — both on the road. I believe the Buckeyes have the best defense in college football, so good luck to Grunkemeyer. He didn’t play poorly against Iowa, though.
The most interesting matchup for me in this game is Penn State defensive coordinator Jim Knowles going up against Ohio State’s offense. I can’t remember a more fascinating matchup than this one after Knowles coordinated an Ohio State defense that was No. 1 in the nation and won the national championship last season. I’m fascinated by this because of the knowledge Knowles has of Ohio State and the knowledge Ryan Day and Brian Hartline have of Knowles. They’ll know exactly how they’ll want to attack Knowles, and Knowles will have the institutional knowledge of Ohio State’s offense. Someone’s going to have to break tendencies here to get an advantage.
What kind of offensive game plan should we expect from Ohio State? Day and Hartline have played it pretty close to the vest at times this year, doing so against Texas in Week 1. There have been times when the Buckeyes have let the passing game cut it loose, which they did against Wisconsin. At their best, I think this passing game could be the best in college football. It has the best receiver tandem (Jeremiah Smith, Carnell Tate) in the sport and a quarterback who has been the most efficient in the sport. Julian Sayin has been surgical, but he’s going against a defensive coordinator who has knowledge of him. However, watching the film, I feel like OSU is going to be aggressive in this matchup.
Flipping things around, Matt Patricia has done an incredible job as Ohio State’s defensive coordinator. The Buckeyes disguise their coverage better and with more unique structures than anyone else in the sport. It takes talent and intelligence to execute that NFL scheme Patricia’s running, and they have that. Defensive end Caden Curry has been a revelation. Arvell Reese and Sonny Styles make up the best linebacker tandem in the nation, and they still have Caleb Downs, who’s arguably the sports’ best defensive player. That defense has only given up 41 points this year.
Texas has struggled to beat teams that it frankly should’ve dominated over the past couple of weeks, but the Longhorns are back at home for the first time in a long time; they have played four road games in a row.
It’s uncertain if quarterback Arch Manning will play after entering concussion protocol. Matthew Caldwell, who replaced Manning during overtime against Mississippi State last week, will probably get the start if Manning can’t go. He threw an incredible dime into the back corner of the end zone to help Texas take down the Bulldogs, and he made a pretty big throw earlier in that game. Caldwell has some starting experience, starting six games for Troy.
Texas still can’t run the ball effectively, though. That has really hurt the Longhorns, as their offensive line hasn’t been as good as it has over the past couple of years. Their lack of experience up front has shown, but they do get running back CJ Baxter back, so maybe they’ll be more effective running the ball, which they’ll need to do against Vandy.
Flipping it around, Vanderbilt’s offense was kept in check against Missouri. That was a bit eye-opening. I thought the Dores would have a bit more success last week offensively. Texas’ defense should present more problems than Missouri’s. The Longhorns’ defense is still one of the best in the nation, and Vanderbilt’s offense is similar to the Oklahoma offense they slowed down a few weeks ago. Unfortunately for Vandy, it isn’t a great matchup due to that.
Ultimately — and you can yell at me for this — I’m too much of an elitist, and I just don’t think Vandy can go to Texas and win. I know Vandy has had a magical season, but I just don’t see it happening for the Dores on Saturday.
Pick: Texas 20, Vanderbilt 17 (Texas -2.5)
Is Tennessee great defensively? No, but the Volunteers are great offensively. They’ve got the No. 2 scoring offense in the country, and I really love what quarterback Joey Aguilar has done. Oklahoma has the fifth-best scoring defense in the country, but Ole Miss showed that you can get after the Sooners’ defense. There are things there that Tennessee can attack — and that’s before getting into quarterback John Mateer’s play taking a dip for Oklahoma following his hand injury. He’s averaging 150 yards less per game since the injury, and OU still can’t run the football.
If Tennessee makes Oklahoma earn its way down the field, I think this game goes toward the Vols. Oklahoma’s pass rush hasn’t been the same as of late, struggling against both Texas and Ole Miss. You also have the Neyland Stadium factor, with Tennessee winning 25 consecutive home games against teams not named Georgia.
Pick: Tennessee 28, Oklahoma 20 (Tennessee -3.5)
This is a favorable matchup for USC. The Trojans should be able to win at the line of scrimmage, which they were unable to do against Illinois and Notre Dame. It’s in there, and I love USC’s trajectory. I think USC is trending toward becoming an excellent football team. Sometimes, you might lose a few games along the way to becoming a great football team. You might have to go from losing big to losing small before winning small and eventually winning big.
Right now, USC is on this tipping point from losing small to winning small. I think that’s going to continue. Nebraska hasn’t been able to stop the run, ranking 15th in the Big Ten in rushing defense. If USC is balanced and running the football well, you can’t stop the Trojans. They’re one of the best offenses in America. You can only slow them down when you can make them one-dimensional, and I don’t see Nebraska being able to do that.
Is USC going to score more than 30? Yes. Will Nebraska? I don’t think so. This is a game where USC will put itself back on the map in terms of the CFP hunt.
Pick: USC 34, Nebraska 21 (USC -6.5)
We don’t know if quarterback Devon Dampier is going to be back for Utah this week, but freshman Byrd Ficklin lit it up against Colorado last week. He did his best Dampier impression, rushing for over 150 yards, and Utah’s offense doesn’t have to change with Byrd at QB. However, I think winning a blowout game like Utah did against Colorado last week could be a danger because it can be tough to get your team focused.
Cincinnati is a great team. Brendan Sorsby has quietly been one of the best quarterbacks in the country, with 26 total touchdowns (second in FBS) and one turnover. Cincy will be without starting running back Evan Pryor, which isn’t ideal when you’re going to play in a really tough environment. I don’t think Cincinnati can win at Utah, but I think the Bearcats can get an early lead to help keep it close before the Utes pull out a victory.
Pick: Utah 24, Cincinnati 20 (Cincinnati +8.5)
Joel Klatt is FOX Sports’ lead college football game analyst and the host of the podcast “The Joel Klatt Show.” Follow him @joelklatt and subscribe to “The Joel Klatt Show” on YouTube.
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