World oil and fuel demand might develop till 2050, IEA says

In its World Power Outlook, the Worldwide Power Company predicts underneath a present insurance policies situation that oil demand will hit 113 million barrels per day by mid-century, up round 13% from 2024 consumption

LONDON, United Kingdom – World oil and fuel demand might develop till 2050, the Worldwide Power Company mentioned on Wednesday, November 12, departing from earlier expectations of a speedy transition to cleaner fuels following US criticism about its local weather focus.

The Paris-based vitality safety watchdog additionally predicted in its annual outlook that the world will possible fail to fulfill its aim to cap the rise in temperatures to as shut as doable to 1.5 levels (2.7 levels Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial instances to keep away from essentially the most devastating results of local weather change.

The IEA has been underneath stress from the US for a shift in recent times towards a concentrate on clear vitality insurance policies as President Donald Trump referred to as on American corporations to broaden oil and fuel manufacturing.

In the course of the Biden administration, it predicted that international oil demand would peak this decade and mentioned there needs to be an finish to funding in new oil, fuel and coal tasks if the world wished to succeed in web zero emissions by mid-century. (COP30: UN Local weather Change Convention agenda, newest information)

‘Notion of peak oil’

Trump’s Power Secretary Chris Wright has referred to as its demand peak projections “nonsensical.” The IEA is funded by member nations, with the US the biggest contributor.

In its World Power Outlook revealed on Wednesday the IEA predicted underneath a present insurance policies situation that oil demand will hit 113 million barrels per day by mid-century, up round 13% from 2024 consumption.

It predicted that international vitality demand will climb by 90 exajoules by 2035 — a 15% improve from current ranges.

The situation, which the IEA first utilized in 2019 earlier than switching to at least one extra in keeping with a clear vitality transition, is predicated on current authorities insurance policies and never aspirations to realize local weather objectives.

IEA head Fatih Birol mentioned on a press name the situation was restored to replicate differing decisions governments are making about vitality.

The Group of the Petroleum Exporting Nations has beforehand disputed peak oil demand forecasts.

“We hope…we now have handed the height within the misguided notion of ‘peak oil.’” OPEC mentioned on its web site on Wednesday.

This yr’s outlook ditched the pledges situation because the IEA mentioned not sufficient nations had submitted new commitments to provide a significant image.

Within the said insurance policies situation, which considers proposed however not essentially adopted insurance policies, oil demand peaks round 2030. The distinction in projections is basically as a result of diverging expectations of EV uptake.

The IEA says its situations discover a spread of doable outcomes underneath varied units of assumptions and aren’t forecasts.

LNG capability to soar

Remaining funding selections for brand spanking new liquefied pure fuel tasks have surged in 2025, the report famous. Operations for about 300 billion cubic metres of recent annual LNG export capability will begin by 2030, marking a 50% improve in obtainable provide.

Primarily based on the present insurance policies situation, the worldwide LNG market will increase from round 560 bcm in 2024 to 880 bcm in 2035 and to 1,020 bcm in 2050, pushed by rising energy sector demand fueled by knowledge heart and AI progress.

World funding in knowledge facilities is anticipated to succeed in $580 billion in 2025, the report mentioned, noting that if achieved this might surpass the $540 billion a yr spent globally on oil provide.

The report features a situation describing a pathway to cut back international vitality emissions to web zero by 2050.

Greater than 190 nations pledged on the Paris local weather talks in 2015 to attempt to maintain the world from warming greater than 1.5 levels Celsius.

The report reveals the world surpassing that in all situations.

“We have to pace up and scale up and governments at COP30 should now agree on a worldwide response plan to urgently bridge the 1.5ºC ambition hole,” Kaisa Kosonen, senior coverage adviser at Greenpeace Nordic mentioned, referring to the UN local weather talks underway in Brazil. – Rappler.com