If you were sold on the Bears early this season, then you’ve made a lot of money since Week 3.
Over the past nine games, Chicago is 9-1 straight up (SU) and a money-printing machine at 8-2 against the spread (ATS).
However, the public betting masses have been slow to come around on coach Ben Johnson’s massive revitalization project.
“The market is still not treating the Bears as a dominant or capable team,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said. “We’ve all been saying that the Bears haven’t really done anything.
“But beating that Eagles team last week, in that weather, with two 100-yard rushers, that’s opened people’s eyes.”
Is it enough to get the public on the Bears in NFL Week 14 odds, for a huge NFC North showdown vs. the Packers on FOX?
Oddsmakers and sharp bettors serve up their insights on that matchup and more, as we dive into NFL Week 14 betting nuggets.
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NFL Rocks on FOX
The Bears are 9-3 SU/8-4 ATS through a dozen games, riding a five-game win streak. In Week 13, Chicago was a 7-point road underdog vs. Philadelphia and notched a 24-15 upset on Black Friday.
Similarly, Green Bay (8-3-1 SU/5-7 ATS) went on the road, on a short week, and got an outright win. The Packers were 3-point ‘dogs at Detroit and won 31-24 on Thanksgiving Day.
Caesars Sports then opened Green Bay as 5.5-point home favorites for Sunday’s 4:25 p.m. ET showdown on FOX. On Monday, the Packers advanced to -6.5, which is where the spread remains Wednesday afternoon.
Interest in the Bears at this point is from those rooting for another outright upset.
“There’s a little action early on the Bears. Bettors have come in on the moneyline, which is something we haven’t seen with the Bears this season,” Feazel said, while noting point-spread action currently favors the Packers. “I don’t know if we’ll get to 7. I think we’ll see a healthy amount of Bears action heading into the weekend.
“We’re probably going to need that Super Bowl middle: The Packers win, but don’t cover.”
Thursday Night Throwdown
The Cowboys (6-5-1 SU/7-5 ATS) have won and covered the spread in their last three games, perhaps saving their season — at least for the moment. Dallas has to continue winning, which could be a tough chore at Detroit in an 8:15 p.m. ET Thursday night kickoff.
The Lions (7-5 SU/6-6 ATS) are also nearing that must-win point, looking up to both the Bears and Packers in the NFC North. Detroit dropped two of its last three games.
Caesars opened the Lions as 3-point home favorites, and as of Wednesday afternoon, it’s Lions -3 (-105), which means this line is leaning toward going to 2.5.
“Talk about a team attracting a lot of moneyline play lately. That is the Dallas Cowboys,” Feazel said. “We’re seeing a lot of Cowboys moneyline action on this game, and a ton of action on the Over.”
The total is at 54.5, the highest of any game in NFL Week 14 odds, and Feazel expects these two explosive offenses to justify that number.
“This game should be electric,” he said.
Sunday Night Showdown
Houston (7-5 SU and ATS) is on a four-game win streak, covering the spread in three of those games. The Texans’ offense is nothing to write home about, but the defense is among the best in the NFL.
In five of the last six games, Houston has allowed 19 points or fewer.
Kansas City is 6-6 SU and ATS, and if the season ended today, the Chiefs wouldn’t be in the playoffs. That’s almost unthinkable, for a team that’s been in seven straight AFC Championship Games, winning five conference titles and three Super Bowls.
Caesars opened the Chiefs as 5-point home favorites for the 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday game, and the line quickly dropped to -4.5/-4/-3.5. It’s still K.C. -3.5 on Wednesday afternoon.
“It’s wild to think that this team is not gonna make the playoffs,” Feazel said, while noting the public masses still think K.C. might have a run in it. “So far, we’re seeing a lot of Chiefs action on the spread and the moneyline, but the market is going the other way. Respected action has come in on the Texans.
“This seems like a Pros vs. Joes game. Sharp bettors are on the Texans, and the public is staying with the Chiefs. It’s Sunday night, and there’s a big home-field advantage for the Chiefs. We’re gonna be big Texans fans.”
NFL Sharp Side
Professional bettor Randy McKay is on the Texans for the second time in three weeks, this time for the aforementioned road game against the desperate Chiefs.
McKay took Houston +3.5, betting the Texans can keep this within a field goal Sunday night.
“This Houston team is more healthy, and the offensive line is improving,” McKay said. “Houston’s defense is No. 1 in the league and should give Kansas City’s offense and injured offensive line trouble.”
NFL Rocks on FOX, Part II
Because the AFC North is so middling at the moment, the Bengals aren’t dead yet, even with a 4-8 SU record (5-7 ATS). In Week 13, QB Joe Burrow returned after missing nine games with a toe injury.
Cincinnati responded with a 32-14 upset as 7.5-point underdogs at Baltimore on Thanksgiving night.
Up next are the Bills (8-4 SU/6-6 ATS), who’ve alternated wins and losses over their last five games. If that trend holds up, then Cincy wins in this 1 p.m. ET clash on FOX.
If only it were that simple to predict!
Caesars opened Buffalo as a 5.5-point home favorite and initially ticked up to -6. But the spread has been steady at Bills -5.5 since Tuesday afternoon.
“The Bills’ season has left a lot to be desired, losing games that they shouldn’t have. And the action here is reflecting that,” Feazel said. “So far, we’re seeing Bengals money flowing in.
“It’s interesting seeing ‘dog action coming in this late in the season. It’s usually favorite money coming in hand over fist.”
I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie
Last week, one BetMGM customer got ahead of the curve on the Bears.
Before Chicago’s big road upset of the Eagles, the bettor put $50,000 on Bears +6600 to win the Super Bowl.
If Chicago — currently the No. 1 seed in the NFC — turns this into a miracle season and wins it all, then the bettor profits a massive $3.3 million.
The timing of the wager couldn’t have been better. After beating Philly, the Bears’ odds shortened all the way to +3000.
Making that same wager today, the potential profit is just $1.5 million. Nothing to sneeze at, but a long way from $3.3 million.
Going back to some Week 13 leftovers, a DraftKings Sportsbook customer put $150,000 on Giants +7 vs. Patriots in the Monday night game. That did not go well, with New York tumbling 33-15.
Which is a good reminder: Just because someone bets large doesn’t mean that person has a better chance of winning than us everyday Joes and Janes. It does mean they could lose a lot more, though. Always wager within your means. Enjoy Week 14!
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on X: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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