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With just four weeks left in the regular season, the Chiefs’ postseason hopes are on life support.
Kansas City’s playoff odds are at just 14.2%, per ESPN, after the team’s 20-10 loss Sunday night to Houston. At 6-7, the Chiefs have been officially eliminated from contention to win the AFC West, which they’d won the previous nine seasons. So their only path to the postseason is as a wild-card team. And the three teams currently in wild-card spots (Bills, Chargers, Texans) all have the head-to-head tiebreaker over Kansas City.
Here are five reasons why the Chiefs are on the brink of missing the playoffs for the first time since 2014:
1. Shortcomings in the pass game
Sunday night, when the Chiefs were down 17-10 facing a fourth-and-4 from their own 41, Patrick Mahomes delivered a pass to Rashee Rice on the money, but the third-year receiver dropped it.
And with less than four minutes left, tight end Travis Kelce had back-to-back drops. He couldn’t corral a first-and-10 pass that was a bit off target but catchable nonetheless, then bobbled a tight window throw, which was picked off by Texans linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair.
Those miscues are representative of receiving shortcomings that have plagued the Chiefs all season. And it’s not just drops (in pivotal moments).
It’s an inconsistent deep passing game, despite all the speed they have on the outside. Mahomes is throwing deep (20-plus air yards) at his highest clip since 2020, but he’s completed just a third of those attempts for one touchdown against three interceptions, according to Next Gen Stats.
Chiefs pass-catchers have also had issues creating separation at times, including Sunday against Houston. Their leading receiver is a regressing, 36-year-old Kelce (727 receiving yards).
NFL observers had high expectations for Kansas City’s receiving group after Rice returned from his six-game suspension to start the season, but it hasn’t lived up to expectations.
2. Inconsistent pass rush
The Chiefs had a dominant pass rush performance in Sunday’s loss, led by Chris Jones, but their production in that department has been shaky overall this season. Kansas City is 23rd in sacks (25), 22nd in sack rate (5.6%) and 19th in pressures (156), per NGS.
Part of the issue is that they haven’t been getting home while blitzing — which they often do — leaving them vulnerable to getting gashed on the back end. Steve Spagnuolo’s defense entered Week 14 blitzing at the fifth-highest rate in the league (33.8%) but generated pressure just 35.5% of the time, the fifth-lowest mark in the league, according to Next Gen Stats.
3. Third down woes on defense
For as well as Kansas City’s defense played Sunday night (particularly in the second half), it allowed Houston to convert on eight of its 18 third-down attempts (44.4%), including a third-and-9 touchdown in the second quarter. The Texans had conversions on third-and-16 and third-and-17 as well.
Getting off the field on third down has been an issue this season for the Chiefs, who rank 26th in third-down efficiency (43.1%). Kansas City is giving up an average of 6.0 plays per drive, tied for 14th in the league, per Pro Football Reference.
4. Mahomes not the “Magic Man” of old
In the third quarter Sunday night, the Chiefs faced a third-and-2 at the Texans’ 18 inside the two-minute mark. Mahomes had an open Kareem Hunt in the flat for the easy conversion, but the QB’s quick pass was high and behind the veteran running back, who couldn’t make the catch. So instead of a fresh set of downs for a potential touchdown that would’ve given the Chiefs the lead late in the game, they settled for a field goal that tied the contest at 10.
It’s minor miscues like that from Mahomes — independent of the Chiefs’ pass-catching struggles and offensive-line injuries — that have played a role in the team’s current predicament. After a strong finish to September/October that had him in the MVP conversation, the six-time Pro Bowler hasn’t been as sharp on the margins and in pivotal moments. There have been missed deep shots and bad passes.
Mahomes has had a passer rating below 80 in four of the Chiefs’ past five games, including a career-low 19.8 rating against the Texans.
5. Struggles by Harrison Butker, kicking operation
Veteran kicker Butker missed a 43-yard field goal in the second quarter of Sunday’s loss, his fourth miss on 10 attempts of FGs of at least 40 yards this season.
He’s hit just 84.6% of his field goals in 2025, which ranks 20th, and he’s hit 87.9% of his PATs, the fourth-worst rate in the league. He’s missed the most extra points in the NFL this season (4).
Ben Arthur is an NFL reporter for FOX Sports. He previously worked for The Tennessean/USA TODAY Network, where he was the Titans beat writer for a year and a half. He covered the Seattle Seahawks for SeattlePI.com for three seasons (2018-20) prior to moving to Tennessee. You can follow Ben on Twitter at @benyarthur.
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