The New England Patriots and Los Angeles Chargers aren’t any strangers to going through each other within the playoffs. Over the course of Tom Brady and Phillip Rivers’ tenures, these organizations squared off thrice, with the newest contest coming again within the 2018 divisional spherical. Mockingly sufficient, that postseason was the final time both franchise has recorded a playoff win, and each try to rectify that on Sunday evening in Foxborough.
This time round, whereas it will not be a Brady vs. Rivers conflict, we do get fairly the quarterback matchup as Drake Maye and Justin Herbert signify two of the brightest younger quarterbacks that the league has to supply.
In 12 months 2, Maye has put collectively an MVP-caliber season that helped propel New England from a 4-13 staff over his rookie season to an AFC East-winning 14-3 membership in 2025. As for Herbert, he is continued to blossom in his second season below Jim Harbaugh, rating among the many top-10 passing yard leaders within the league. And that quarterback head-to-head is simply the tip of the iceberg of what ought to be a extremely aggressive playoff contest.
2026 NFL playoff schedule and bracket: Dates, occasions, TV for each spherical from wild card to Tremendous Bowl
John Breech
Earlier than we dive additional into this matchup, let’s be sure to have all the data you must take a look at this recreation.
The place to observe Chargers vs. Patriots reside
- Date: Sunday, Jan. 11 | Time: 8 p.m. ET
- Location: Gillette Stadium (Foxborough)
- TV: NBC
- Odds: Patriots -3.5, O/U 46.5 (odds by way of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Key questions
Can Drake Maye keep scorching vs. Chargers protection?
New England’s second-year quarterback has taken a quantum leap in 12 months 2, ascending as excessive as an MVP candidate. Maye turned simply the tenth quarterback since 1970 to guide the NFL in completion share and yards per try. He is additionally now the youngest of that group to take action. One in all Maye’s key strengths this season has been his proficiency in throwing the deep ball, however that may very well be put to the check on Sunday as he faces a stout Chargers secondary. Each Maye and the Chargers protection rank top-two within the league in completions, completion share, and passing touchdowns on or in opposition to passes of 15-plus air yards.
Completions | 71 | 31 |
Completion share | 58% | 33% |
Passing landing | 12 | 4 |
If L.A. can hold New England’s deep passing assault on the tarmac and drive them into extra of a dink-and-dunk assault, it’s going to go a great distance in the direction of protecting this recreation shut. Conversely, if Maye can discover success with chunk performs by the air, we may very well be in for a shootout with Herbert on the opposite aspect.
Can the Chargers defend Justin Herbert?
On the one hand, you must commend the Chargers for withstanding the losses of each star tackles in Rashawn Slater (torn patellar tendon in August), together with Joe Alt (season-ending ankle harm in Week 9), and nonetheless reaching the postseason. Nevertheless, their capacity to guard the quarter has naturally worsened all year long. General, Los Angeles surrendered a franchise-high 60 sacks this season, the fifth most ever by a playoff staff. Particularly, the offense’s manufacturing after dropping Alt took a noticeable dip. With Alt, the staff was averaging 25.3 factors per recreation. After he went down, that common dropped to 21.3 factors per recreation. Because it pertains to Herbert, he averaged 8.3 yards per try this season when Alt was blocking for him, and that fell to six.5 yards per try in his absence. New England does not have the most effective go rush, however they’re no slouches both, rating simply exterior the highest 10 in stress price (twelfth). So L.A.’s capacity (or lack of ability) to guard Herbert can be a central storyline.
How does New England look vs. playoff competitors?
As spectacular as New England’s turnaround has been this season, growing its win complete by +10 (tied for the most effective year-over-year enhance in NFL historical past), it is value noting that its street was fairly comfortable. The Patriots’ energy of schedule was the best for the reason that 1999 Rams. They had been 13-1 in opposition to groups with dropping information this yr and 1-2 in opposition to groups with successful information. Are you able to fault the Patriots for merely enjoying in opposition to groups that the NFL put in entrance of them? In fact not. Nevertheless, we is usually a bit skeptical of their precise ceiling till they show to us that they’ll take down playoff-caliber competitors, and that begins on Sunday in opposition to the 11-6 Chargers.
X issue
Once we discuss a few of the NFL’s most proficient quarterbacks, Justin Herbert comes up most of the time. He is coming off a 2025 common season the place he ranked inside the highest 10 in passing yards, speeding yards, and passing touchdowns. Herbert has the second-most passing yards in his first six seasons (24,820) all-time, solely trying as much as Peyton Manning.
As prolific a begin as Herbert has loved to start his profession, that success has been unique to the common season. He is 0-2 in his playoff profession, and people two losses have been noteworthy. The primary was the Chargers blowing a 27-0 result in the Jaguars in the course of the 2022 playoffs. The second got here final yr, when he and L.A. had been blown out by 20 by the Texans, as he threw 4 interceptions and posted a career-low 44% completion price. That naturally raises the query of whether or not Herbert is the kind of quarterback who can succeed within the postseason. If what we have seen previously is who he’ll stay to be, this recreation can be over in a rush. If he can carry out extra as he has within the common season, the narrative will start to vary, making him a real wild card over this Wild Card Weekend.
Chargers vs. Patriots prediction, decide
I believe we’re at some extent with Herbert the place we have to see it to consider it earlier than deciding to again him in a playoff setting. Because of every little thing we talked about above, it appears a bit of dicey to belief him on this spot, significantly being on the street and having a depleted offensive line. In the meantime, the Patriots have gotten more healthy within the trenches in latest weeks, welcoming again left deal with Will Campbell and defensive deal with Milton Williams in Week 18. Campbell ought to assist hold Maye upright, whereas Williams will probably contribute to Herbert hitting the turf greater than he’d like. Provided that this recreation can be performed in Foxborough, we’ll say that helps New England recover from the hump en path to the divisional spherical. (Prediction: Patriots 24, Chargers 20 | Decide: Patriots -3.5).
