Elon Musk, the richest man on Earth, is superb at making a living. His monitor file of predicting the longer term is much less stellar.
By the years, Musk has made a number of outlandish forecasts—about self-driving vehicles, about house exploration, about mind chips, about robotics—that haven’t panned out. The Tesla CEO and former steward of the so-called Division of Authorities Effectivity appears at the very least a bit self-aware. Throughout a shock look and his debut on the World Financial Discussion board in Davos, Switzerland on Thursday, he concluded with one thing like a mission assertion: “Usually, for high quality of life, it’s higher to err on the facet of being an optimist and flawed than a pessimist and proper.”
Nonetheless, when one’s firms have their fingers in so many industries—autos and robotics (Tesla), house journey and telecommunications (SpaceX), social media (X), synthetic intelligence (xAI), infrastructure (the Boring Firm), and neurotechnology (Neuralink)—even off-the-cuff predictions can transfer world markets. Listed here are a couple of prognostications Musk made on Thursday:
Aliens Don’t Exist (Most likely)
Elon Musk opened his Davos remarks—a dialog with pal and BlackRock CEO Larry Fink—with a dialogue of his values, and some jokes about aliens. “We now have 9,000 satellites up there and never as soon as have we needed to maneuver round an alien spaceship,” Musk stated. “We have to assume that life and consciousness are extraordinarily uncommon and it’d solely be us.”
Humanoid Robots Will Remodel Human Life—and Go on Sale in 2027
Musk began making guarantees about Optimus, the corporate’s humanoid robotic, in 2021. Most just lately, he stated Tesla—now rebranded as a robotics and autonomy firm—would make 1000’s of Optimus robots in 2025. However the firm is reportedly nonetheless struggling to get Optimus’ hand to work. That didn’t cease Musk repeating in Davos a few of his most far-reaching claims about the way in which the product would change human life without end.
“If we’ve got ubiquitous AI that’s basically free, or near it, and ubiquitous robotics, you should have an explosion, an growth of the worldwide economic system that’s actually past all precedent,” Musk stated. What does that imply for you? Billions of robots powered by synthetic intelligence will outnumber people and “saturate all human wants,” he stated. “You received’t be capable to consider one thing to ask the robotic for at a sure level, there will probably be such an abundance of products and providers.”
However first, in fact, Tesla must begin promoting Optimus, which Musk stated would occur late subsequent 12 months.
Robotaxis Will Be “Very Widespread” within the US by 2027
In 2025, after years of self-driving guarantees, Tesla lastly launched a restricted robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, albeit with a human security monitor sitting in every passenger seat. That didn’t cease Musk from asserting that many of the US inhabitants would have entry to robotaxi by the tip of that 12 months.
Now, in 2026, Musk is shifting the goalposts once more. He stated Thursday that his firm’s robotaxis can be “very widespread by the tip of this 12 months within the US.” If historical past is a information, that received’t occur—however the firm is engaged on launching robotaxi service in a handful of states with laxer laws, together with Arizona, Florida, and Nevada.
Human Getting older Is a “Very Solvable Drawback”
Musk acknowledged that he hasn’t spent a lot time investigating human ageing. However he predicted that there can be an answer. “After we discover what causes ageing, we’ll discover it’s extremely apparent,” he stated. Get to it, Silicon Valley friends.
SpaceX Will Full a Totally Reusable Rocket This 12 months
SpaceX has been engaged on its reusable rocket platform Starship for a decade, and in these years, has missed a number of of Musk’s huge house deadlines. He predicted in 2020 {that a} crewed Mars mission would launch by 2024. He stated that Starship would attain orbit by 2022, although the corporate didn’t pull it off till final 12 months.
At Davos, Musk repeated a promise from final 12 months: that Starship can be totally reusable by the tip of this 12 months, chopping house journey prices by “an element of 100” and ultimately permitting house freight to compete with airplane freight costs. SpaceX has run profitable take a look at flights just lately, however a totally reusable rocket by the tip of this 12 months might be a stretch.
AI Will Turn into Smarter Than a Human This 12 months—and Smarter Than All of Humanity in 2035
Musk has been each deeply concerned in AI’s growth and deeply doomer-y about its that means for years. (See: his ongoing lawsuits towards OpenAI, its founders, and Microsoft.) In Davos, Musk as soon as once more talked about his want to keep away from a Terminator-like future. However he additionally indicated that it’s coming. “The speed at which AI is progressing, I believe we’ve got AI that’s smarter than any human this 12 months, and no later than subsequent 12 months,” he stated. By 2035, it will likely be “smarter than all of humanity, collectively.”
Per ordinary, whether or not Musk will get this one proper comes all the way down to definitions. What does “smarter” imply? This month, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang stated he didn’t imagine researchers had been wherever near creating what he known as “God AI.” The expertise is sweet at discrete duties, however doing all the pieces? ”That ‘some day’ might be on biblical scales, on galactic scales,” Huang stated.
