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Favorites don’t necessarily need to cover the spread in order for the public betting masses to do well. Just winning the game is often enough, getting those moneyline parlays across the finish line.
Such was the case Sunday in NFL Conference Championship Game odds.
“Two-for-two for the favorites, and a high-scoring late game. The bettors had a good day,” BetMGM trading manager Tristan Davis said.
More on the weekend that was, as multiple oddsmakers recap NFL conference title betting.
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Get to the Points
When it comes to wagering on football, the public loves two things most: Overs and favorites. The masses will parlay those two until the cows come home.
They certainly did for Sunday’s NFC Championship Game on FOX, and the Rams and Seahawks made it pay.
Seattle closed as a consensus 2.5-point home favorite, and depending on where you bet, the total closed at 45.5/46/46.5. The Seahawks won 31-27 to cover the spread, and the Over hit by the end of the third quarter.
Which was fortuitous for Over bettors because, stunningly, neither team scored in the fourth quarter.
Further, with lots of points — and correspondingly, lots of yards — player props and same-game parlays cashed at a higher rate.
“All the popular anytime touchdown scorers hit. And Puka Nacua Over 90.5 receiving yards was a big one,” SuperBook risk manager Casey Degnon said.
To Degnon’s points: The Seahawks’ Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Cooper Kupp scored TDs, as did L.A. wideouts Nacua and Davante Adams; and Nacua racked up 165 receiving yards on nine catches.
Add to that Smith-Njigba’s 10 catches for 153 yards, and you’ve got a recipe for prop-bet success. As Davis summarized late Sunday night:
“The box score says enough.”
Middle Ground
Sunday’s AFC Championship Game featured the two things oddsmakers love most: Unders and underdogs.
The favored Patriots beat the Broncos 10-7, plowing through a snow-riddled slog of a second half. But New England didn’t cover as a 3.5-point road favorite.
The result was what oddsmakers term a Super Bowl middle — when the favorite wins, but the ‘dog covers. And the total of 43 was never threatened, with only three points scored in the second half — on a third-quarter field goal that ultimately won the game for the Pats.
“It was actually a winning day for us overall. Denver helped us, covering all the numbers, including +3.5,” Degnon said, noting sharp bettors — unfazed by backup QB Jarrett Stidham — were on Denver +5/+4.5/+4, while the masses were on the Patriots. “The public was fading the backup QB, even as the number kept dropping.”
A bigger reason The SuperBook had a winning day: futures markets.
Prior to Sunday’s games, Degnon noted that the Rams were a substantial liability in Super Bowl futures odds, and the book much preferred a Patriots-Seahawks matchup.
Speaking of which …
Super Bowl 60 Odds
On Sunday night, Caesars Sports opened the Seahawks as 4.5-point favorites vs. the Patriots for the Feb. 8 Super Bowl, at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif.
Reaction was swift.
“Within seconds of opening, we accepted a $36,000 wager on the Seahawks -4.5, and a $55,000 wager on New England +4.5. Action will be furious for the next two weeks,” Caesars head of football trading Joey Feazel said.
Early on, that action appears to be leaning toward the favorite. Late Sunday night, Caesars moved Seattle to -5.
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