College Football Playoff odds for the four first-round matchups show that bookmakers expect two pretty good games, potentially followed by two blowouts.
Ole Miss is a 17.5-point favorite vs. Tulane and Oregon is a 21-point favorite vs. James Madison.
But that won’t keep the public betting masses off either favorite. They’ll just use those two teams as perceived free spaces on a Bingo moneyline parlay card.
“I anticipate a lot of action will be bettors adding that moneyline to their parlays. They’re gonna parlay Ole Miss and Oregon with the NFL on Saturday and Sunday,” Caesars sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said.
Is that smart? Well, let’s just say it’s not much of a value add to include Ole Miss -900 and Oregon -2000. But as long you understand that and wager accordingly, then you do you.
Bookmakers and sharp bettors offer their insights on College Football Playoff first-round odds for all four matchups.
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The Rematch, Part I
The second edition of a 12-team tournament kicks off at 8 p.m. ET Friday night, with No. 9 Alabama vs. No. 8 Oklahoma. The Crimson Tide are 10-3 straight up (SU)/7-5-1 against the spread (ATS), and the Sooners are 10-2 SU/7-5 ATS.
If you feel like you’ve seen this one before, it’s because you have and not that long ago. In Week 12, the Sooners knocked off the Crimson Tide 23-21 as 6.5-point road underdogs.
The point spread is much closer this time around, and for the moment the favorite is reversed, as well.
Caesars Sports opened Alabama -1.5 on Dec. 7, and since then, both teams have spent time as 1- or 1.5-point favorites. Oklahoma, playing at home, is -1.5 as of Wednesday night, but it was ‘Bama -1.5 earlier on Wednesday.
“We’ve got a mixed bag of money coming in,” Feazel said. “Right now, the need will be Oklahoma, and I anticipate that being the case Friday night.”
The Name Game
At noon ET Saturday, No. 10 Miami (10-2 SU/7-5 ATS) meets No. 7 Texas A&M (11-1 SU/5-7 ATS). Neither team played in their respective conference championship games, so both are going on three weeks’ rest.
Oh, and they have something else in common, too, prompting Caesars Sports to give this matchup a proper name.
“We’re calling this the Notre Dame Bowl because these two teams beat Notre Dame, keeping the Irish out of the College Football Playoff,” Feazel said.
This line has bounced around a bit at Caesars, with A&M opening as a 3-point favorite, climbing to -4 and now at -3.5.
“Bettors are taking Miami and the Under,” Feazel said, noting the total is down to 49, after opening at 51.5. “There’s sharp action on Under 51.5, 51 and 50.”
The Rematch, Part II
We’ve also seen Tulane vs. Ole Miss before. In Week 4, the Rebels were 11.5-point home favorites and flattened the Green Wave 45-10.
Ole Miss (11-1 SU/7-5 ATS) and Tulane (11-2 SU/6-7 ATS) will run it back in a 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday kickoff.
Caesars Sports opened the Rebels as 16.5-point home favorites, and within a half hour on Dec. 7, the line dipped to -15.5. But that lasted all of four minutes before returning to -16.5.
By Dec. 9, the spread climbed to -17.5, where it remained Wednesday night. With such a big number, though, bettors’ interest isn’t yet piqued.
“It’s two-way action but not a lot of action. We’d rather have had a much more competitive matchup,” Feazel said. “We anticipate a little more money on Ole Miss by kickoff.”
And, as noted above, Ole Miss will be in plenty of moneyline parlays by Saturday afternoon.
On Campus Sharp Side
College football betting expert Paul Stone is among those whose interest is piqued by Tulane vs. Ole Miss.
Stone noted that in the regular-season blowout, Ole Miss outgained Tulane by an almost 2/1 margin (548 yards to 282). Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss, making just his second start, accounted for 419 total yards, throwing for 307 and rushing for another 112.
Stone expects Tulane to again have difficulty coping with the Rebels’ balanced offense, and he recommends laying the 17.5 points with Ole Miss.
“Tulane gave up 48 points to Texas-San Antonio, 32 to Memphis and 31 to South Alabama,” Stone said. “The Green Wave simply don’t have the personnel to slow down a top-shelf SEC attack. I think the Rebels are good for another 45 points, and maybe more.”
Dukes vs. Ducks
The final first-round matchup saw some interesting early movement on the College Football Playoff odds board.
On Dec. 7, Caesars opened Oregon as a 20.5-point favorite vs. James Madison, and within minutes, there was 1.5-point move down to Oregon -19. But the spread returned to Ducks -20.5 within a couple hours and spent several days at -21.5.
As of Wednesday evening, Oregon (11-1 SU/8-4 ATS) was -21 at home vs. James Madison (12-1 SU/8-5 ATS), for a 7:30 p.m. ET kickoff.
“We are seeing some action, and this one’s a little more one-way on Oregon,” Feazel said. “The big need is for James Madison to just be competitive in this one.”
Sharp bettors jumped on the total, which opened at 51 and is down to 47.5. Feazel said Caesars took respected action on Under 49.5, 49 and 48.5.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on X: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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