NFL picks: NFC South champion may very well be topped in Week 17

A division crown appeared like nothing however a dream for the Carolina Panthers after their disappointing begin to the 2025 NFL season. With two video games remaining on the schedule, the workforce has its NFC South title destiny in its personal fingers.

Carolina (8-7) was demolished 42-13 by the New England Patriots in Week 4 to fall to 1-3, and an eighth consecutive sub-.500 marketing campaign was anticipated by most. However the Panthers defied the cynics in Dave Canales’ second yr as head coach and went on to win six of their subsequent 9 contests to thrust themselves proper into the NFC South race.

Their prospects have been aided by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers‘ downward spiral. In line for a fifth consecutive division title after a 6-2 begin, Tampa Bay (7-8) floundered after getting back from its bye, shedding three straight earlier than edging the Arizona Cardinals 20-17 in Week 13 to keep up a one-half recreation lead over Carolina.

The Panthers had their bye the following week and dropped a 20-17 determination to New Orleans upon their return, whereas the Buccaneers adopted their victory with setbacks in opposition to New Orleans and the Atlanta Falcons, establishing a showdown between the 7-7 rivals in Charlotte in Week 16.

The competition was a back-and-forth affair because the lead modified fingers 4 occasions earlier than Tampa Bay cast a 20-20 tie with a discipline objective early within the fourth quarter. However Carolina transformed certainly one of its personal with 2:20 remaining and intercepted Baker Mayfield in Panthers territory with 49 seconds left to seal a 23-20 triumph and take sole possession of first place within the division.

Because of this, the Panthers might have their sixth NFC South title and first since 2015 of their pocket by late Sunday afternoon and make their rematch with the Buccaneers within the regular-season finale insignificant. It is going to be something however simple, nonetheless, as Carolina hosts the conference-leading Seattle Seahawks (12-3), whereas Tampa Bay visits the downtrodden Miami Dolphins (6-9).

Ought to the Panthers upset the Seahawks and the Buccaneers finish their matchup in opposition to the Dolphins with both a tie or their seventh loss in eight video games, Carolina will clinch an unexpected division crown after safe its first profitable file since going 11-5 in 2017. A tie by the Panthers, who entered this yr with a complete of seven victories over their earlier two seasons, and loss by Tampa Bay additionally would put a bow on the NFC South.

Nevertheless, Seattle enters Week 17 with a profitable streak that reached 5 video games with a surprising 38-37 time beyond regulation overcome the Los Angeles Rams final Thursday and the NFC West title in its sights. As well as, Carolina has gained back-to-back video games simply as soon as this season and hasn’t completed the feat since posting three consecutive victories from Weeks 5-7.

A meltdown such because the one Tampa Bay is experiencing might wind up costing head coach Todd Bowles his job ought to the workforce miss the postseason, whatever the reality he had guided the Bucs to the division title in every of his first three years on the helm. 

However for the reason that Dolphins have suffered double-digit losses in every of their final two outings after a four-game profitable streak gave them false hope for a postseason berth, it is cheap to assume the Buccaneers will proper the ship and defeat a rudderless Miami workforce that noticed head coach Mike McDaniel, who probably shall be fired on the finish of the season, bench No. 1 quarterback Tua Tagovailoa previous to final week’s 45-21 setback in opposition to the Cincinnati Bengals.

Contemplating the state of every membership after Carolina’s triumph final week, SportsLine’s Contained in the Strains workforce and its projection mannequin at present give the Panthers one of the best likelihood to win the NFC South. However the ITL workforce’s mannequin, which simulates each NFL recreation 10,000 occasions, believes Carolina and Tampa Bay’s prospects are near equal ought to each end with the identical consequence on Sunday.

The Panthers are simply 4-9 in opposition to the Seahawks in regular-season play and have misplaced 4 of their final 5 conferences, together with a 37-27 defeat at Seattle in 2023 wherein Kenneth Walker III ran for 97 yards and a pair of touchdowns for the house workforce. Carolina’s protection must deal with a Seahawks squad that’s third within the NFL in scoring (29.5 factors) and sixth in passing offense (238.1 yards), thanks largely to Sam Darnold, who ranks fifth within the league with 3,703 passing yards, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who leads all gamers with 1,637 receiving yards.

Tampa Bay has gained three straight and 6 of its final seven matchups in opposition to Miami after having misplaced 4 of the primary 5 video games within the all-time sequence. The Buccaneers’ most up-to-date victory over the Dolphins happened in 2021, when Mike Evans made six catches for 113 yards and hauled in two of the legendary Tom Brady’s 5 landing passes in a 45-17 thrashing. 

Seattle is a 7-point favourite in opposition to Carolina within the newest NFL odds at DraftKings, and the mannequin is predicting a 27-20 victory for the Seahawks. In the meantime, the Buccaneers are 5.5-point favorites on the sportsbook of their matchup versus the Dolphins, with the ITL workforce’s mannequin calling for a 28-25 triumph by Tampa Bay. These outcomes would arrange a showdown between the Panthers and Bucs in Tampa for the NFC South title in Week 18, which is one thing nobody might have seen coming when the season started.