Week 1 of the 2025 NFL season is true across the nook, with the motion starting Thursday, Sept. 4 between the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles. Which means there are many anytime landing scorer bets to be made for the loaded 16-game Week 1 slate.
The SportsLine Projection Mannequin was developed and powered by the Contained in the Strains workforce. You could find all of our workforce’s picks and content material at our weblog, which has all our private finest bets without spending a dime.
Finest anytime landing bets
We monitor the proportion of simulations that every participant scores a dashing, receiving, punt return, kickoff return, interception return or fumble return landing. We then evaluate that to the consensus betting line’s implied share and search for those the place our share is at the very least pretty much as good as these odds.
We DON’T depend on straight betting worth primarily based on SIM% – ODDS%. We’re not robots. We really feel, we bleed, we love soccer.
We choose our favourite bets primarily based on situational components, related historical past, and BEST PRICE. If we have now a 58% forecast and each main e book has -135 to -145, we might not have a ton of worth, however maybe our forecast assumes the participant’s backup is lively, however he is extremely questionable. We all know if that backup is inactive our share jumps to 67%. We’ll pounce on that motion at the very best value on the time of publishing (-135 on this instance).
Kyren Williams -115, FanDuel
The -115 implies 53.5%, and that’s the finest on our newest board. This presents a TON, TON, TON of worth over DraftKings’ -165 or ESPN’s -190! Our sims have Williams on the high of the checklist at 87%.
Do not overthink this. Williams has 31 dashing + receiving touchdowns over his final two seasons (28 video games). The Rams gave him an enormous contract, exhibiting they absolutely intend on retaining him as the first workhorse RB. Sorry, Blake Corum. Matthew Stafford needs to be enjoying, which is sweet for the Rams to get the ball close to the objective line. However with Stafford’s age and unhealthy again, he is not going to be doing an tush pushes or goal-line scrambling. Ninety % of the Rams’ dashing TDs are going to be by Williams, who has accounted for 85% of this workforce’s dashing TDs when he performs over his whole profession.
| MATCHUP | PLAYER | YES ATD | PROJ |
| LAR HOU | Kyren Williams | -115, 53.5% | 0.87 |
| CIN @CLE | Ja`Marr Chase | -135, 57.4% | 0.79 |
| GB DET | Josh Jacobs | -185, 64.9% | 0.75 |
| PHI DAL | Saquon Barkley | -175, 63.6% | 0.75 |
| PHI DAL | Jalen Hurts | -135, 57.4% | 0.72 |
| ATL TB | Bijan Robinson | -220, 68.8% | 0.71 |
| BAL @BUF | Derrick Henry | -150, 60% | 0.71 |
| CIN @CLE | Chase Brown | -170, 63% | 0.67 |
| DET @GB | Jahmyr Gibbs | -115, 53.5% | 0.66 |
| CIN @CLE | Tee Higgins | +125, 44.4% | 0.62 |
| PHI DAL | A.J. Brown | +160, 38.5% | 0.62 |
| BUF BAL | James Cook dinner | -110, 52.4% | 0.61 |
| PHI DAL | DeVonta Smith | +185, 35.1% | 0.61 |
| KC LAC(N) | Xavier Worthy | +130, 43.5% | 0.59 |
| LAR HOU | Davante Adams | +150, 40% | 0.56 |
| BUF BAL | Josh Allen | -115, 53.5% | 0.52 |
| DEN TEN | Courtland Sutton | +115, 46.5% | 0.52 |
| DEN TEN | RJ Harvey | +160, 38.5% | 0.52 |
| ARI @NO | Marvin Harrison Jr. | +135, 42.6% | 0.51 |
| HOU @LAR | Nico Collins | +130, 43.5% | 0.49 |
| BAL @BUF | Mark Andrews | +190, 34.5% | 0.47 |
| ATL TB | Drake London | +135, 42.6% | 0.46 |
| DEN TEN | Marvin Mims | +260, 27.8% | 0.46 |
| DET @GB | Amon-Ra St. Brown | +130, 43.5% | 0.45 |
| CHI MIN | DJ Moore | +160, 38.5% | 0.43 |
| CLE CIN | Jerome Ford | +145, 40.8% | 0.43 |
| HOU @LAR | Nick Chubb | +160, 38.5% | 0.43 |
| CHI MIN | Roschon Johnson | +150, 40% | 0.42 |
| LAC KC(N) | Ladd McConkey | +145, 40.8% | 0.42 |
| BAL @BUF | Rashod Bateman | +230, 30.3% | 0.41 |
| CLE CIN | David Njoku | +250, 28.6% | 0.41 |
| MIN @CHI | Jalen Nailor | +470, 17.5% | 0.4 |
Tee Higgins +130, bet365
Most books have this at +125, so that you may as effectively seize the +5 additional money-line items. If you happen to can mix that with a pleasant promo or deposit bonus, you might be in enterprise.
Whereas we technically have much more worth on Ja’Marr Chase, I personally love getting plus cash on a wager that our mannequin has hitting effectively over 50% of the time. I additionally like when the oddsmakers are being lazy. On this case, the odds-implied 43% vary is instantly consistent with Higgins’ profession 39% Over charge (29-45 Over).
However 2024 was a special story with Higgins going 7-5 Over and, most significantly, 6-2 down the stretch. The Bengals are going to be in shootouts all season lengthy. Joe Flacco goes to let it rip for Cleveland. Cincinnati is bored with beginning every season with an abysmal opening week offensive dud. The Bengals performed Joe Burrow quite a bit within the preseason to make sure a quick begin.
A.J. Brown +165, Caesars
This line is significantly higher than the +140 ESPN is providing and manner higher than the +123 at BetRivers.
Like with Higgins, we’re getting plus cash on a line that we have now hitting effectively over 50%. Philadelphia really began final season sort of sluggish, particularly within the passing recreation. Brown solely had one landing in a seven-game stretch. However Philly’s triumphant near the season began with Brown scoring in 5 of his final seven video games regardless of solely having three, six and three receptions in three of the video games. Within the two Unders, he solely had two and one reception.
For his profession, Brown has scored a TD in additional than 50% of his residence video games (lower than 40% on the street). The Eagles are operating it again offensively and want to begin the season as they ended it. Our mannequin can also be a lot increased on Jalen Hurts’ move TD than the percentages indicate with a virtually two passing landing projection. Who is aware of if Micah Parsons will probably be there, and the Cowboys’ protection could possibly be a multitude.
Xavier Worthy +140, Caesars
I like when gamers are priced like they’re “regular” for his or her place. On this case, Worthy as a WR being priced based on what share of passing TDs they will count on then adjusted for workforce whole. Worthy scored a receiving landing in 42% of his video games final season (together with playoffs), which is what +140 implies. However Andy Reid from Day 1 additionally schemed how you can use Worthy’s velocity to attain three dashing touchdowns. Whenever you throw in that Rashee Rice accepted a six-game suspension, Hollywood Brown has not been 100% in years and Worthy’s dashing landing potential, this can be a nice wager.
Mark Andrews +190 Caesars, FanDuel, Fanatics
Wow, Caesars actually desires your ATD motion as they as soon as once more are providing the very best value, although they’re in a tie with FanDuel and Fanatics.
Andrews Over 5.5 receiving touchdowns is considered one of my favourite season futures. Isaiah Possible was not placed on IR, however the expectation is he’ll miss at the very least Week 1. However even with Possible enjoying final season, Andrews crushed this as soon as he received wholesome, scoring in 10 of his ultimate 12 common season video games.
This line will not be “YES Catch a 2-point Conversion to Ship the Sport to OT in Icy Playoff Circumstances in Buffalo.” It’s a easy ATD as Andrews is TE1 and Lamar Jackson’s favourite goal. Jackson can also be infamous for attempting to get the ball to sure gamers when they’re getting grief. In his 2019 MVP season, Jackson made it a degree to get the ball to Seth Roberts since he hadn’t scored a landing but that season. Not too long ago, Jackson talked about getting the ball to third-string tight Charlie Kolar a recreation or two earlier than Kolar lastly scored.
Heck, even final season, Jackson was indignant that so many thought Andrews was “washed” that he made it a degree to get the ball to Andrews. After what occurred within the playoffs, Andrews ATD is a lock.
These are only a fraction of our greatest bets all free on our new weblog. We will probably be offering our workforce’s private finest bets for each NFL recreation.
