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The Trump issue
He might not have been on the poll, however President Trump was on the minds of voters within the 2025 elections.
He was an element for a lot of voters in every of the locations the place exit polls had been performed: Virginia, New Jersey, New York Metropolis and California. And extra mentioned their vote in these races was to oppose him, than help him.
These are traditionally Democrat-leaning locations, and extra voters right here disapproved than accepted of his total job as president. Additionally they discovered that his administration’s actions on immigration enforcement have gone too far.
New York Metropolis: Value of dwelling and bringing wanted change
New York Metropolis Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani received a decisive victory over former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo on a marketing campaign of affordability, and the price of dwelling was an important situation to voters in New York Metropolis. Mamdani handily received the vast majority of voters who picked it. Extra particularly, he targeted on the price of housing, which seven in 10 voters in New York mentioned was a significant downside the place they dwell, and he received amongst renters, who made up greater than half of the citizens.
Voters who made up their minds within the final month of the marketing campaign voted overwhelmingly for Cuomo, nevertheless it wasn’t sufficient to make up for almost all of voters who selected Mamdani earlier than October.
Cuomo led Mamdani amongst Jewish voters — most of whom mentioned a candidate’s place on Israel was necessary of their vote.
Mamdani’s coalition was led by monumental help amongst voters beneath 30 and really liberal voters, however his help prolonged to all voters beneath 45 and to those that thought of themselves solely considerably liberal, whereas older voters, in addition to moderates and conservatives, voted for Cuomo.
The Republican candidate within the New York Metropolis mayoral race, Curtis Sliwa, got here in a distant third and did not even win self-identified Republicans (they voted for Cuomo). Had he dropped out of the race, it may not have made a distinction. Although most of Sliwa’s supporters mentioned they might have voted for Cuomo, exit polls point out that in a hypothetical two-way race, Mamdani nonetheless would have been victorious.
Mamdani additionally ran on change, and that was picked as an important high quality in how voters made their choice. A altering citizens was additionally an indicator of Mamdani’s win — his strongest help was not simply younger voters, but in addition those that had been voting in a mayoral race for the primary time and those that had moved to New York inside the previous 10 years.
New Jersey and Virginia: The economic system, ladies voters
Financial points additionally loomed giant within the Democratic wins within the gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia. In New Jersey, Jack Ciattarelli received voters who had been most involved about taxes and who mentioned electrical energy was a significant downside for them, however voters who mentioned an important situation was the economic system total voted for Sherrill. In Virginia, these “economic system” voters voted for Abigail Spanberger over Winsome Earle-Sears by greater than 20 factors.
Ladies voted in large numbers for the ladies Democratic candidates in Virginia and New Jersey. Sherrill and Spanberger’s margins with ladies had been far bigger than Kamala Harris’ had been nationally in 2024.
Independents had been key, too. They swung towards Spanberger in Virginia, after Glenn Youngkin received them in 2021. Independents additionally backed Sherrill in New Jersey.
California Prop 50: Getting again at Republicans’ plans
The proposition, pushed by Gov. Gavin Newsom, authorizes momentary modifications to the state’s congressional district maps in response to redistricting in Texas.
“Sure” voters did not essentially assume this poll initiative was one of the best ways to attract congressional district line — however they overwhelmingly mentioned it was to counter the modifications made by Republicans in different states.
Polls might have up to date since this publish was revealed.
This polling is performed by SSRS, an impartial analysis firm, on behalf of ABC, the Related Press (AP), CBS, CNN, Fox Information, and NBC. It combines knowledge collected from verified registered voters on-line and by phone, with knowledge collected in-person from voters on Election Day.
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