READ: Half 1 | Senator Rodante Marcoleta, the gentleman from Iglesia
Was it Iglesia ni Cristo (INC) or Rodrigo Duterte that helped Rodante Marcoleta end sixth within the Senate race?
Knowledge analyzed by Rappler and The Nerve, a knowledge forensics firm, coupled with interviews with marketing campaign insiders, point out that Marcoleta’s victory could be attributed to each the INC and Duterte elements. The Duterte vote, nonetheless, was extra decisive in comparison with the INC’s endorsement.
Our analysis confirmed that on the bottom, many native politicians endorsed the 72-year-old Marcoleta in hopes that the church would additionally endorse them in return.
Parallel to the bottom efforts of marketing campaign groups, The Nerve’s evaluation confirmed that on social media, Marcoleta rode the Duterte wave and finally went viral, due to Duterte-related content material.
A research of the election outcomes, as analyzed by Rappler, confirmed that Marcoleta carried out finest in Mindanao, a stronghold of the Duterte household.
In an indication that this went past the INC bloc vote, Marcoleta even ranked sixth within the Holy See, a voting precinct of 169 voters, the place many are monks and nuns working in Vatican Metropolis.
The turnout was stunning on condition that Marcoleta, months earlier than the Could 12 elections, complained that he felt invisible to mainstream media.
Media, he mentioned, refused to present him area or airtime, even when he spoke for an hour through the INC’s Nationwide Rally for Peace on January 13.
“The Philippine Day by day Inquirer, its slogan is ‘Balanced information, fearless views.’ What the hell, I used to be not there. I used to be not even talked about. It was as if I didn’t exist. There have been three reporters who wrote that report,” Marcoleta mentioned in a panel interview on the tv channel One Information.
He then turned to one of many three interviewers, Ana Marie Pamintuan, editor in chief of the Philippine Star.
“With all due respect, Ma’am,” mentioned Marcoleta, “Philippine Star, what’s its slogan? ‘Reality shall prevail.’ And there have been eight reporters who reported that individual incident — eight. So eight plus three, 11 reporters, no one noticed me within the rally. No one heard me. Why?”
“It was as if I didn’t exist,” mentioned Marcoleta, a party-list consultant for round twenty years.
But when Marcoleta felt invisible to mainstream media, he — and the INC — actually made his presence felt on the bottom.
Victory in Mindanao
Marcoleta’s marketing campaign proved most potent in Duterte’s bailiwick.
Knowledge confirmed that Marcoleta’s strongest help got here not from areas with important INC populations — historically seen as influential voting blocs — however from Mindanao, significantly in provinces with giant numbers of Duterte supporters.
The highest 10 provinces the place Marcoleta secured the very best vote proportion may also be present in Mindanao, a Duterte bailiwick.
In Davao del Sur, he positioned third and secured 65.75% of the vote. In Sulu, he garnered 56.99%. Throughout a number of different Mindanao provinces, Marcoleta constantly ranked high three or 4, in areas with a lower-than-average INC presence.
Nationwide, as of 2020, INC accounts for about 2.8 million Filipinos, or roughly 3% of the full inhabitants. The Philippines stays predominantly Roman Catholic, with 85.6 million members (79%), adopted by the Muslim inhabitants at 6.98 million (6%).
Alternatively, Marcoleta registered his worst efficiency in Camarines Sur, bailiwick of former vp Leni Robredo. This, regardless of rumors — debunked by truth checkers and the Robredo camp — that she had endorsed Marcoleta for senator.
He additionally fared poorly in different provinces within the Bicol area, a Robredo stronghold.
The Duterte issue was evident in Marcoleta’s miting de avance on Could 6, with Rodrigo Duterte’s youngest daughter Kitty, his companion Honeylet Avanceña, and key ally Robin Padilla taking turns to endorse Marcoleta in Duterte’s title.
Padilla made a selected enchantment to his fellow Muslims, most of whom reside in Mindanao, to “pay our debt of gratitude” to INC by voting for Marcoleta. He mentioned that the INC, by way of its Lingap sa Mamamayan charity occasions, has by no means “forgotten” Filipino Muslims in instances of warfare and catastrophe.
Padilla even mentioned that Duterte requested him, at The Hague, to inform the Filipino folks to “vote Dante Marcoleta initially.”
Pulse Asia president Ronnie Holmes confirmed to Rappler that “the Duterte vote, particularly in Central Visayas and Mindanao, pulled up the numbers of Marcoleta.”
Holmes even famous that of their pre-election surveys, Marcoleta’s choice score went up in March 2025. That was across the identical time when Duterte was arrested on March 11 in a crimes towards humanity case on the Worldwide Legal Court docket.
He mentioned various pro-Duterte candidates additionally rose in survey rankings at the moment, “arguably attributable to sympathy for the Dutertes given the arrest of Digong.”
“The 2025 election outcomes are finest understood if one acknowledges the distinct context — the extreme battle between Marcos and the Dutertes, low approval and belief of Marcos, and his administration’s efficiency that pulled down help for Alyansa (Marcos-allied) candidates,” he defined.
Duterte’s on-line wave
On-line, Marcoleta’s marketing campaign can shed extra gentle on the explanations he received.
Primarily based on The Nerve’s evaluation, Marcoleta’s Fb marketing campaign was pushed by Duterte allies and particular person supporters who shared his speeches and endorsements, in addition to related information articles.
His Fb marketing campaign “was predominantly led by Duterte supporters advocating for the PDP-Laban line-up,” referring to the Duterte patriarch’s political occasion. He was additionally incessantly talked about in relation to PDP-Laban marketing campaign rallies.
Marcoleta was most incessantly talked about in “vote for PDP-Laban line-up” posts, registering 16% of complete mentions. However Marcoleta’s supporters additionally actively campaigned for him as a person senator. Posts on Marcoleta’s marketing campaign path and people who state “vote for Marcoleta” registered 6.7% of complete mentions.
Different supporters’ posts tackled his speech on the INC’s peace rally, the supporters’ reactions to this speech, and the the explanation why they’ll vote for Marcoleta.
On YouTube, over 1,000 posts talked about Marcoleta within the title or description, in accordance with The Nerve.
Round 32% of those movies have been associated to his attendance at political rallies. Round 9.4% have been linked to pro-Duterte information and political commentary, whereas 8.3% have been associated to pro-Marcos information.
Even on social media, Marcoleta’s marketing campaign bore Duterte’s footprint.
The Iglesia ni Cristo issue
The place, then, does one place the INC?
Once we checked out provinces with the very best focus of INC members (measured as a proportion of the inhabitants), Marcoleta usually underperformed. (See the chart beneath.)
Tarlac is a first-rate instance, since it’s a province the place INC members make up 7.5% of the inhabitants, larger than the three% nationwide. Additionally it is the hometown of Marcoleta, who was born in Paniqui, Tarlac, on July 29, 1953.
Regardless of being a local of Tarlac, Marcoleta ranked solely ninth, exterior the highest 6 he achieved nationally.
In Aurora (6.31% INC), he ranked sixteenth, whereas in Nueva Ecija (6.27% INC), he positioned fifteenth. In the meantime, in Quirino (5.8% INC), he positioned seventeenth.
The INC issue gave Marcoleta “a little bit of an edge over different pro-Duterte candidates who did not make it, like Ipe Salvador or Jimmy Bondoc,” mentioned Holmes. “Nevertheless, I might not say it’s that important to make him win relative to the geographic votes.”
It’s helpful to notice that the statistic of “2.8 million INC members,” usually used to depict the ability of their bloc vote, consists of non-voters, together with youngsters. In 2025, solely round 60% of Filipinos have been registered voters, and among the many registered voters, solely 82% trooped to polling precincts.
If one elements within the INC members who don’t vote for the church’s anointed ones (round 20-25% of them didn’t heed the INC’s recommendation, primarily based on earlier Social Climate Stations exit polls), then the “2.8 million” determine will get diluted all of the extra.
However how come INC-endorsed candidates have traditionally had a excessive success price of profitable? In previous elections, just one or two INC-backed senatorial candidates usually misplaced, suggesting that the INC endorsement works.
Nicely, there’s a catch: timing.
The INC usually releases its endorsement listing simply days earlier than elections, when candidates are already extra visibly performing effectively in pre-election surveys and comfortably inside the “Magic 12.” This raises questions about whether or not the bloc vote drives momentum or just rides the wave.
A research by Allan Cairo Reyes, printed within the Philippine Social Sciences Assessment, concluded that INC endorsements are typically primarily based on reputation. The research analyzed the INC vote share utilizing 2004 and 2010 exit ballot knowledge for senators.
“INC management weighs candidates looking for its endorsement solely on the premise of recognition and nothing extra,” Reyes wrote.
And even amongst INC members, compliance isn’t absolute. In a 2022 Inquirer column, SWS president Mahar Mangahas famous that 75% to 80% of INC members comply with the church’s senatorial endorsements.
Whereas “it’s not good compliance,” Mangahas mentioned that the endorsement is essential for the final one or two slots within the senatorial race.
Is INC operating Philippine politics?
In Marcoleta’s case, even when it was not the INC bloc vote that introduced him to the Senate, a degree of delight will not be misplaced on fellow church members.
Marcoleta, as members cheered on Fb, is the primary INC senator.
It’s a part of a decades-long sample of INC influencing election outcomes, in accordance with a marketing campaign veteran who spoke to Rappler.
“If this development continues, INC will get to manage the complete Philippines,” he mentioned, including that in a perfect world, a church mustn’t have this a lot affect on politics. “Our downside is that society must be sturdy sufficient to face up to these items.”
One other informant mentioned it’s commonplace for candidates to make a beeline for the INC headquarters in Quezon Metropolis. Every candidate would meet with the INC management — government minister Eduardo V. Manalo, political affairs chief Eraño Codera, or a lower-level chief, relying on the politician’s significance — usually with out anybody escorting the politician.
Questions can revolve round one’s winnability or one’s program of presidency, though in the long run, solely the INC leaders would know the factors by which they’d assess a candidate.
It’s very like a thesis protection, our supply mentioned.
“It’s one thing that we undoubtedly want wouldn’t be there, as a result of on the finish of the day, we wish voters to vote not due to the orders of their church or bloc, however due to their very own resolution or discernment,” the informant mentioned. Nonetheless, politicians have interaction the INC as a result of “if the target is to win, it’s one thing that can enable you win.”
What’s extra regarding, nonetheless, is that the trade-offs transcend election day.
This brings us again to 2016, when Marcoleta bolted the minority bloc to affix the Duterte supermajority on the Home of Representatives. Explaining the transfer, the late Albay 1st District Consultant Edcel Lagman informed Rappler: “He texted a message. He mentioned his church needed him to affix the bulk.”
Marcoleta himself informed broadcaster and fellow INC member Anthony Taberna, in an interview years later, that following his church stays a precedence. The lawmaker mentioned, within the context of getting the INC’s permission to run for senator: “We won’t make any transfer in our lives with out looking for the mandatory permission from them.”
Will the Honorable Marcoleta, the gentleman from Iglesia, be his personal man? – with knowledge evaluation by Keith Yadao/Rappler.com
